Of course it's manipulated. One via tweets and news bits, other by forces we can't visualize or know about. This job report is as of mid march, before places closed down...may 8th is when the next one comes out....oh boy.
most recent SEC filing shows that Warren Buffett's co, in Q1, sold > 12.9 Million shares of Delta Airline, and a smaller qty of SW, which kinda explains why the Airlines nose dived today btw, UAL just announced that revenue or this coming 4th Qtr (the strongest Qtr for the industry) will be down~ 30% from 2019
Well that's interesting.... 02/27/2020 Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway paid $45.3 million on Feb. 27 for a total of 976,507 Delta shares (DAL), an average per-share price of $46.40. Berkshire Hathaway now has overall ownership of 71.9 million Delta shares - 11.2% stake 04/01/2020 Berkshire subsidiaries sold 13 million Delta shares over Wednesday and Thursday for a total of $314.2 million, a per-share average of $24.19 each. Berkshire now has overall ownership of 58.9 million Delta shares Yet the disposals are surprising. "I won't be selling airline stocks," Buffett told Yahoo Finance three weeks ago. Sold 18% of his Delta shares...now he is under 10% ownership...didn't sell any of his AAL stock.. fishy fishy.
I finally set up a Webull account... but the interface takes some time to get used to. Also, have to watch out for Good Faith Violations (well since I am using a cash account on it for now)... was just trying it out. I want to test the pre-market -buying way ahead can be nice on a few of these. I should know after next week if I will transfer more or just keep it as a small account for AH/pre-market moves etc. Not really interested in having multiple accounts and having everything split up. Especially if doing day trades. Anyway, if anyone is interested in Webull or has questions let me know. I do like that it gives you more detail with chart etc if you're not in front of your PC, but the platform is a pain to get used to.. I think until I get used to it..., I don't plan on entering any stocks I know I will have to exit quick - ie high risk/reward.
What's fishy? I heard today JetBlue was making about $1 million per day and losing about $2 million per day in refunds or something. They're losing something like $10 million per day. Insane. What's fishy? If there's anybody I'd trust in the world of stocks/investing, it's him. He'll be asked about it at the Berkshire shareholders meeting in May, and he'll answer. In the past, I know they've reduced ownership of companies below 10% because of the complexity of owning those shares. I think he did it with another company recently, too (reduce ownership under 10%). I'd be more interested why he went over 10% in the first place. Last year, he went above 10% because Delta bought back stock, so he got over the 10% by "mistake" : https://seekingalpha.com/news/3446622-buffett-says-delta-stake-rose-above-10-mistake
I don't know...that man..he is 5 steps ahead of us. Why would he add a tiny share of delta (in the grand scheme of things) in feb, only to turn around and sell a crap ton more in april? surely he is smart enough to know airlines are not what you invest in when there's a global shutdown. guess we will find out in May. i wouldn't be surprised if he turned around and bought american.
I'm not going to be the one to guess or double-guess him, but when you think about it, the guy invests in stocks and sits on them for years. If you can get them for a big discount, even if you don't know it's the bottom, why the hell not? For most people it's "nobody's going to be flying them for months possibly, why would I buy that?" while for him it's probably like "so you're saying it's about as low as it's going to get? May be time to buy". lol. It's not like he's infallible, but lord does he make out just buying crap and sitting on it. He also gets his "Buffett discount", too. That's kind of what he did with helping Goldman out during the 2008 financial mess : https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/13/how-much-warren-buffett-made-goldman-sachs.aspx It's not like us going out and buying shares of Goldman or UAL. We'll see what he has to say in May. For all we know, it could be "welp... I screwed up on that one." He's said that before, too. Kraft-Heinz was an example. Most of Wall Street, I wouldn't trust worth a damn. I don't put Buffett in that class. Now watch him go and break my heart. lol.
If the Saudi's really **** up this OPEC meeting and refuse to cut oil production I hope the USA boycotts their oil and gets EU to throw sanctions on them as well. These fkers have been bleeding money since 2014 and have cut their dollar reserves by almost half since then and have accomplished NOTHING. If this virus extends to Ramadan then Saudi will be losing a MASSIVE amount of tourism income as that is their busiest month of the year. I bought into OILX and OKE last week and I should have sold before the end of Friday, but I never would have guessed Saudi would still be playing this pissing match. Russia needs to cut oil just as badly as SA due to the coronavirus in their country. They just shut the economy down for 30 days and are desperate AF right now. I think the Republican party finally cuts off ties with the Saudi's if they continue this pissing match any much longer. Ryan Sitton, Commissioner of the Texas Railroad Commission, already said that he would work alongside the Russians to address cuts but it seems like the Saudis still are in a dick measuring contest.
Saudis are still selling @ above production cost yeah? If their economy is in such bad shape wouldn't they be incentivized not to cut production? I took profit on USO calls that i bought at the start the week and short sold low strike puts for income. Too many unknowns if price will continue to go up, but it's unlikely to fall much further.
Not very free market to impose sanctions or boycott against any partner of the USA. I have no vested interest currently if oil goes up or down, but I would be inclined to start building a long position for a 6 month-8 month trade.
They are selling above production level, but below what they need to run their country ~$80. Russia is selling bellow production cost. Both countries are losing a lot of money. The increased volume doesn't come close to making up for the lower price.Basically every country needs to cut by 25%.
i read your post on CSV and your rationale for a long call on it. must have missed ur post on USO, what was ur rationale for the long CALL? i assume that it's the weekly call, no?
Heya, I didn't post about it, was a quick decision. I think it was the monthly call but I closed early when my GTC orders filled at 100% profit. TBH, I don't fully understand the dynamics of OPEC vs Russia, just that oil prices are unsustainably cheap - Russia's cost of production for brent crude is estimated at $42 a barrel. Current price is below Russia and US production cost. Even if this pissing match continues it can't go down much lower - hence going short on puts as well. If oil prices go down again on Monday as expected, I'll buy calls again. I've also seen advice on buying oil tanker stocks as tankers are doing great business - traders are buying oil at today's low prices, storing the oil on tankers and selling futures immediately at higher prices for guaranteed returns. But I don't know how long this situation is going to last so I haven't done this myself (buying the tanker stocks).
The Dick Burr Selling Stocks thread in D&D got me looking up at Loeffler's trades in late Feb/early March. Still researching and haven't acted on them. Some takeaways besides the obvious virus winners/losers from her 31 March filing: - she was bullish on Du Pont. I think they make some PPE, but they are such a large and diversified manufacturing company in the middle of a recession. There may be more to this. - bullish on CME. Makes sense with volatile commodity prices, futures trading volume has gone up. Long term food prices may also spike due to supply chain shocks. - thought oil had bottomed. she sold puts on BP and CVX - for bio stocks she prefers AMGN (sold puts), over ARNA (sold off underlying) - most of her puts expire between august to october. She may be thinking that's when the market will recover.
Oil futures were down around 8-9% and then this happened. DOW futures implied open is up around 900 points at the moment, as well. Of course, it'll probably all fall apart by the time I wake up. Moscow and Riyadh are ‘very, very close’ to an oil deal, says Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/rus...ery-close-to-an-oil-production-deal-rdif.html
They don't have any choice but to make a deal at this point. Saudi doesn't want to ruin their diplomatic ties with the White House. Texas Railroad commission already has a hush hush deal with the Russians.
I don't see how the US won't be involved somehow, whether by production cuts or collapse of smaller oil producers nationally. A lot of smaller oil companies in the US are apparently begging the TRC to do something before they go out of business.
Ryan Sitton recently had an interview in which he said that Texas would be making production cuts to fall in line with the opec cuts.
