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Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    Why are you still arguing about this poll?

    I have told numerous times its not about this poll and I am willing to bet Mojo has multiple times said polls don't mean anything or talked about how Hillary was polling ahead of Trump.

    But hey I am glad that you found something you agree with Mojo about.
     
  2. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Crazy that Emmerson and Suffolk released polls over the same period with similar sample sizes both doing Likely voters and there is a huge difference.
     
    Nook, MojoMan and baller4life315 like this.
  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    That is just the sort of thing I was referrering to earlier.

    In this case, with the race being 1) Democrats in the 2) presidential primaries within 3) seven days of the election, this is likely due to flaws in the polling at some level, and not partisan bias.

    But surely we can agree that these sorts of large differences do not inspire confidence.
     
  4. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    A Warren/Sanders national ban on fracking would likely sink their chances in Pennsylvania:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/us/politics/pennsylvania-democrats-fracking.html

    excerpt:

    . . . a pledge to ban all hydraulic fracturing, better known as fracking, could jeopardize any presidential candidate’s chances of winning this most critical of battleground states — and thus the presidency itself. So as Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren woo young environmental voters with a national fracking ban, these two Democrats are uneasy.

    “In Pennsylvania, you’re talking hundreds of thousands of related jobs that would be — they would be unemployed overnight,” said Mr. Fetterman, who endorsed Mr. Sanders in 2016 before Donald J. Trump won his state, pop. 12.8 million, by just over 44,000 votes. “Pennsylvania is a margin play,” he added. “And an outright ban on fracking isn’t a margin play.”

    Mr. Peduto said “the Warren-Sanders, ban-all-fracking-right-now” position would “absolutely devastate communities throughout the Rust Belt” and pit environmentalists against workers at a time when Democrats need both.

    “If a candidate comes into this state and tries to sell that policy, they’re going to have a hard time winning,” he said.
     
    jiggyfly and MojoMan like this.
  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    But their supporters in California, New York, and Massachusetts will think it is pretty cool.
     
  6. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    Warren and Sanders could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and those states will still go for Warren or Sanders
     
    Corrosion and mick fry like this.
  7. mick fry

    mick fry Member

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    Ahhh it seems like yesterday when he was the lefts media darling and frontrunner.
     
  8. mick fry

    mick fry Member

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    Ya know when Warren was a little Native American girl growing up in Oklahoma her mama would tell her (if she said it once, she said it a thousand times) that her grades weren’t that important unless they were and then she grew up, knocked boots, got a belly bump and was unceremoniously shown the door. Long story short she should have been given a plus without having to earn it.
     
    #2449 mick fry, Jan 28, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2020
  9. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Does she also need ghost writers to author her books?
     
  10. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    jiggyfly likes this.
  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The margin between Sanders and Biden in the RCP national poll average is now down to 4.3%.

    National
    28.1 - Biden
    23.8 - Sanders
    14.8 - Warren
    07.8 - Bloomberg
    06.8 - Buttigieg

    What is the margin of error - 3%?

    The narrowing of this margin is the result of Biden's support in the polls falling and Sander's support in the polls rising. The only other candidate who moved upwards at all in this most recent update was Bloomberg and that was only by 0.1%. Both Warren and Buttigieg continue to see their national poll support recede.

    All year the mantra has been that Bernie might do well in the two early states, but in the states that come later, he will get creamed. Watching these poll numbers narrow in the week preceding the first primary contest is making me wonder if that is necessarily correct.

    It seems to me that Sanders is the heart and sole of today's Democrat left. The establishment types and many traditional democrat voters, who continue to hang in there, may not agree. But where is the passion from the more moderate, non-"Progressive" wing of the party? I am not seeing it. Not at all.
     
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  12. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    "If Democrats Really Thought Trump Was An Existential Threat, They’d Moderate Their Extremism":

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/01/2...ential-threat-theyd-moderate-their-extremism/

    excerpt:

    Democrats today are similarly ambitious and ideological in their goals. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti admitted the Green New Deal “wasn’t originally a climate thing at all,” but they “really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.” Not simply content with covering the uninsured, Sen. Bernie Sanders now wants to pass Medicare for All and take away private insurance, competition, and meaningful choice from all Americans.

    Suspend reason briefly and imagine a very different election platform. Imagine if Joe Biden, or whatever candidate passes for a moderate Democrat these days, promised a centrist administration. Rather than simply assuming “Never Trumpers” and other swing voters will have no choice but to vote for whatever Democrat gets nominated and against Trump, what if the Democratic Party made defeating Trump more of a priority than implementing its radical agenda designed to appease various far-left groups?

    A more sincere Democratic Party could propose an inclusive administration representing the moderate middle, which would frustrate activists at either end of the ideological spectrum. Just as Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama included members of the other party in their Cabinets, Democrats could commit to nominating even more Republicans. It would be perhaps too ironic for Romney, the father of Romneycare, to be named Health and Human Services secretary, given responsibility for overseeing Obamacare.

    Democrats could promise to nominate judges acceptable to both the Federalist Society and the American Civil Liberties Union, or alternate between the two if consensus proves impossible, with a promise not to alter the balance of the Supreme Court. Naming a liberal jurist to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be slightly less objectionable to mainstream conservatives than expanding the court or replacing a conservative jurist with a liberal activist.

    They could foreswear any sweeping domestic policies or regulations, new entitlement programs, significant new spending or taxes, or foreign policies passed on a partisan vote and insist on truly bipartisan majorities. If they are truly confident in the popular support for their sweeping revamp of American society and its economy, surely that majority will still be there four years hence when the centrist ticket expires.​
     
  13. leroy

    leroy Contributing Member

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    He was neither of those things.
     
  14. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    When was he ever a frontrunner?
     
  15. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    Biden numbers has actually been rising of late.

    You continue to be on brand and that brand is continuing to be wrong.
     
  16. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    Trotting out this same tired argument that AOC somehow represents the majority of the party.

    When was the last time she said anything.
     
  17. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Biden's poll numbers in the RCP national poll average moved downwards by 0.6% (28.7% to 28.1%) from Monday of this week (first quote above) compared to today (second quote above).

    You are mistaken.
     
  18. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Maybe those 4 extra votes in Iowa will help him in Iowa.
     
  19. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This would be a big problem.

    The democrats have an excellent chance of winning Pennsylvania if they back off fracking bans. It is just stupid politically to push hard for it at this point.
     
    jiggyfly likes this.

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