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[Poll] Will Beto beat Cruz?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by No Worries, Nov 5, 2018.

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Will Beto beat Cruz?

Poll closed Nov 6, 2018.
  1. Yes. I am a Democrat.

    11.0%
  2. No. I am a Democrat.

    20.5%
  3. Yes. I am Republican.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. No. I am Republican.

    15.1%
  5. Yes. I am an Independent.

    9.6%
  6. No. I am an Independent.

    43.8%
  1. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    It's a poll.

    My vote will be aspirational :D
     
  2. quikkag

    quikkag Contributing Member

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    I can't even begin to guess the outcome of this race, or any other, really.

    Current polls--largely based on phone surveys--are increasingly unreliable. Too many people won't even answer a call from a number they don't recognize, so these polls don't reflect whatever demographics have no tolerance for frivoluous calls. We have seen numerous reports of voting machines changing votes. There are the voter suppression efforts and the number of people who fear them so they aren't telling anyone that they intend to vote, let alone for whom.
     
    leroy likes this.
  3. jsingles

    jsingles Member

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    No - Independent.

    Texas tows the line too much to elect someone like Beto, no matter how much good he might actually do the people of Texas. It's nice that this is a competitive race, but Texas isn't going blue yet although it could happen in the late 2020's.
     
  4. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    I bet google or facebook knows. Too many rural texans voting. These are the people most dependent on the government, but they want to vote for people trying to take away medicaid, medicare and SS.
     
  5. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

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    I'd guess a lot of rural money is also oil money.
     
  6. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Hakeemtheking and tmoney1101 like this.
  7. seemoreroyals

    seemoreroyals Member

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    One thing clear about this poll. No one wants to admit they are a republican. Hoping for an upset for Beto. Like many others I cannot stand lying Ted Cruz.
     
  8. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    I don't know how to tell. With the crazy amount of early voters and new voters and midterm participation uptick, it is pretty difficult to get a realistic grasp on what might happen.

    The only thing I can go on is that it is Texas. We know how Texas has voted for in every recent election. The polls also give Cruz a slight advantage or at best even for Beto. But that could all be thrown out the window with the crazy amount of new and early voters. It would definitely be an upset if Beto wins.

    But the range of realistically possible outcomes range from Cruz wins by 14 points to Beto wins by 4 points.
     
    Hakeemtheking and quikkag like this.
  9. cml750

    cml750 Member

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    Cruz will definitely win. The only question is by how much. I predict it is by double digits or very close to it. Anything less than 7.5% will be a huge moral victory for Beto.
     
    #9 cml750, Nov 6, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
  10. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Early voting has favored republicans.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...arly-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

    I guess they are scared of the carvan or Muslims or who knows what.
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  11. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    That assumes all Republicans are voting for Cruz. I know some Texas Republicans who are voting for Beto. I understand that isn't scientific or anything at all. I suspect most Republicans will vote for Cruz, but it is possible that enough are voting for Beto to make a difference.
     
    quikkag likes this.
  12. quikkag

    quikkag Contributing Member

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    It is typical, it is the practice that Republicans cast a higher share of their votes in early voting and Democrats cast a higher share of their votes on election day. To say "early voting has favored republicans" provides insufficient context. It should be questioned how numbers of early voters from each party compare to traditional numbers. Are notably more Democrats voting early? Which is to say, is the gap closing? Expanding? This would be a worthy indicator.

    Another aspect not addressed in raw numbers of who is voting early is how many Republicans are casting votes for Democrats? Not all those votes from Republicans are being cast for Republican candidates.
     
    Hakeemtheking and FranchiseBlade like this.
  13. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I tend to agree. If it is less than 5 points, it will be stunning. I would not be surprised if it ends up a double digit victory.
     
    cml750 likes this.
  14. JeeberD

    JeeberD Contributing Member

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    This is what has me somewhat hopeful. I know this is completely circumstantial, but on Facebook I see people posting comments all the time about how they or a friend or a family member have always voted R, but this year they're voting for Beto. When I click on conservative leaning posts or articles I haven't ONCE seen someone say that they always vote D but are voting for Cruz this year. Hopefully there's enough people switching R to D to make a difference.
     
    quikkag and FranchiseBlade like this.
  15. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    No - anti-Trump Republican who voted Democrat straight ticket last week just to send a message (that won't be heard).

    Beto may squeak by in the cities, but Cruz will get 80% of the rural vote and win by double-digits.
     
  16. Genesis

    Genesis Contributing Member

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    Just curious, honest question. Are majority of you guys only straight Democrat/Republican, or is it you can agree with issues on both sides?
     
  17. Nippystix

    Nippystix Member

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    Impossible. Tell your hippy friends to go back to California. Their kind aren't welcome here.
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  18. tmoney1101

    tmoney1101 Contributing Member

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    I’m predicting a Beto blowout in the cities. It’ll be the cities vs the **** kickers.
     
  19. Buck Turgidson

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  20. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    I agree with both sides on different issues.

    I predict Beto to lose. It will be less than 10 points but will still be a big loss.
     
    Genesis likes this.

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