I know this is discussed in bits in all the threads, but let's use this thread for discussion. The next two weeks should be a tryout of sorts for the 3rd and 4th starter in the playoffs for the M's (McHugh, Morton, McCullers) and Peacock. Who is in the lead right now?
If I were to pick, it would be Verlander Keuchel Peacock Morton Morton has been consistently better than McCullers and McHugh over the 2nd half and healthier. He does have issues getting into the 3rd time through the order but we'll have plenty of arms in the pen to cover for him if he's only going 5.
I think they'll lean Verlander in game 4; it'll be on 3 days rest - but if he can clinch it (or if they trail 2-1 and need a win), you're set-up well for the ALCS with Keuchel pitching game 1 & then Verlander back for game 2 on four days rest. If so, that makes Verlander the de facto game 1 starter. G1: Verlander G2: Keuchel (day off) G3: McHugh G4: Verlander G5: Keuchel (Flip Verlander & Keuchel if their opponent has a particularly weak resume v. LHP.)
Can't find the quote, but Hinch has mentioned that the line between starter and reliever will be blurry in the playoffs. I take this not to include Verlander and Keuchel. I'm not expecting anyone else to see a third time through the order. McHugh seems likely to be a SP as he's the most likely that could go for 6-7 innings if things just break his way. I'm not sure McCullers is on the ALDS roster at this point. If he's healthy and pitching well, he's a SP. He might be by playoffs and he might not. Peacock or Morton are near interchangeable in my opinion. Both of them are usually great early in games and can go bad in a hurry later in the game. I don't want to see either pitching more than 4 innings unless game is already nearly decided.
Never in a million years thought I would say this back in the Spring, but Peacock has been great all year long. At this point I have no reason to think he won't be good for 5 innings. These recent missed starts pretty much mean it's too late in the game for me to develop any real confidence in LMJ. As for the 4th starter, I honestly don't care. I pretty much feel the same about McHugh,Morton,and LMJ. If we don't have to use any of the 4 in the first 2 games, I would basically divide games 3 and 4 between them. One guy will start game 3, and in the 4th or 5th inning another guy will come in. Same thing for game 4. Unless they are absolutely dominating, none of them should see the 6th inning.
What we should go with: Verlander Keuchel Peacock McHugh What we will go with: Keuchel Verlander McCullers McHugh Not that Lance should definitely be in the bullpen. It is just that time is running out to prove he can hold up to pitching 5-6 innings.
Man tough question after 1. Verlander 2. Keuchel (Verlander has been nails so he gets the nod from me)
From a recent Fangraphs article: I like the idea of a McCullers to Peacock tandem, each going for ~4 IP. Wouldn't put McHugh or Morton in the back end of a tandem start though. As of right now: SP1: Verlander SP2: Keuchel SP3: McHugh SP4: McCullers/Peacock If McCullers hasn't had a chance to shake off the rust with 1-2 good starts to end the regular season, put him in the pen and have Morton take SP4 front end of the tandem. This is a good problem to have. Morton, McCullers and Peacock all should have big roles on the playoff roster one way or another. All three are too filthy to not utilize.
shame??? you're out of your damn mind. quick, name us 3 good reason why keuchel should start over verlander that doesn't include "he's been an astro longer"
He has what, two starts left? Would we, should we put a lot of stock in two outings, regardless of outcome? If not, what do we bet on? Pre DL LMJ? Post DL LMJ?
Have you watched the last six weeks? Since returning from the DL Keuchel has put up a 109 ERA- (100 is league average) and a FIP of 4.88. Average game score of 49. Meanwhile in the same time frame Verlander has an ERA- of 38(!!), FIP of 3.32, average game score of 70. It's not even really close. Verlander is the better pitcher right now. We all want Keuchel to be pitching like the Astros ace and thankfully he looked like his vintage self in his last start.
If he's healthy and in shape, no reason not to think he'll pitch like he pitches when he's healthy and in shape. Doctors and coaches can figure out if he's healthy and in shape after two starts. I'm just not confident he will be healthy and in shape.
knee jerk? why should any of us care what keuchel did in may? who's been better the second half of the season? who's been considerably better in september?? who's had multiple times more success in the post season??? i'm just not sure how anyone can think that right now keuchel gives you a better shot at winning than verlander.
i'm not debating who i think hinch will trot out with game 1 as i can very, very easily see him picking keuchel simply bc he's been his ace longer. i'm just saying simply based on merit our game 1 starter should be verlander and it shouldn't even be much of a debate. but ya it's $5 to clutch regardless so let's do it.
