[Official] Red Sox @ Astros

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Jun 16, 2017.

  1. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    It had everything to do with math. You were basing the prediction entirely off his previous years' slash lines. You were incorrectly putting the numbers in a vacuum and using them as a justification for his (then current) numbers, saying the numbers showed he was due to regress to his mean. I'll pull the posts if you want? I'm not confused at all. You were wrong in the way you were using the numbers, just as you are now.
     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    I'm not sure what you're referring to here? Against Kimbrel, the only goal is to tie the game there. The Astros have anadvantage in extra innings with the rest of the bullpen if you can get past Kimbrel. But regardless, if you break it down further into HR possibilities/etc, you'll still find that the Astros chance of winning (rather than tying) is higher with the stolen base attempt with any reasonable numbers you use.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    I didn't say he was due to regress to his mean - I said last year was looking like the outlier year, which it was at that point. It has nothing to do with math - it has to do with my qualitative expectations of Altuve and what kind of a hitter he was/is. He's certainly proving me wrong.

    Again, I provided pretty straightforward formulas for the basestealing. If you can show us the alternate math that shows a better chance of winning without the steal attempt, please do. I'm excited to see it.
     
  4. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    All I said was he was the manager of the team with the best record in the league. And you can sit there and say he sucks all you want, but he is a million times more qualified than we are.

    Don't get me wrong, he makes mistakes... for instance every time he puts Giles in there in a tie game it makes me want to throw up. There are definitely times to jump him, but trying to steal a base to give his team a better chance to win? I'm not mad at that at all. It didn't work, but it doesn't mean it never will.

    That's an excellent question. It wasn't an obvious choice, that's why I never said it was.

    I can definitely tell you though, if I was given the information about Kimbrel only allowing one extra base hit all year to right handed batters (which Hinch surely had), then trying to steal would almost be a no-brainer.
     
  5. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    It always gets reduced to a semantics war doesn't it? So, my guess is your "qualitative expectations" are based on numbers that are compiled into statistics through the use of mathematical formulas? So, in referencing those numbers you are most certainly "using math". And your saying the 16' season was an outlier implies that you were expecting his season numbers to stay the same based on your analysis of his previous numbers. So basically, you expected the regression from what he did in 16' to continue. (all of this based on incomparable samplings of data.)
     
    #725 T for 3, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
  6. T for 3

    T for 3 Member

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    Look dude, my point was never to say that there wan't a statistical impetus for the move, It was to say that whatever the statistical impetus was, it couldn't be significant enough to categorically overrule more cautious approaches . And it certainly couldn't be significant enough to assert that every manager would have used it as the only means for making the decision. You didn't say some of these things, but the post was speaking to those who did.

    And before you say "we are lucky to have a manager that values the statistical probability of winning over anything else."

    Whose to say that these formulas are all-encompassing enough to weigh all the variables that go into making a decision like this?

    If that were true, Hinch wouldn't ever make any decisions, he would be doing data entry in the dugout 100% of the time. But now that I think about it, this is probably why he so often goes blameless around here, because most think he is only a monkey, subservient to an I-Pad.
     
    #726 T for 3, Jun 19, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2017
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  7. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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  8. bloodwings19

    bloodwings19 Member

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    Kimbrel's throws mostly heat. You ain't going to steal on him with Vince Coleman, or Rickey Henderson unless it is a pass ball. The goat is Hinch because Springer can hit HRs, not just hits. We broke the BoSox 25+ consecutive innings without a run, streak are to be broken including Kimbrel's only allowed 1 extra hit. That 1 run from Hoyt is mind-boggling, he should of never put in that role to stop runs because he is runs giver.
     
  9. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Analyzing the matrix, the steal attempt looked like this, I took a screen shot. The first thing you'll notice is the big green splotch, but the second thing you'll notice is that Hinch is working in the wrong language.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member

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    Wow. Nothing Yuli can do.
     
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  11. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    People acting like Hinch wanting Fisher to steal confuse me. You would rather rely on Springer (albeit a very hot power hitter) hitting a walk-off home run off of the most dominant and un-hittable closer in the league? I know Fisher stealing is a risky move, but your odds of Fisher successfully stealing second, then scoring on a Springer single have to be better than Springer hitting a HR off of Kimbrel. Kimbrel has been absolutely lights out this season, and has only allowed a grand total of 9 hits all season. However, that's 9 hits compared to only one HR. Like it or not, Hinch made the right decision. And it was a decision that managers have always made and will continue to make.
     
  12. Astrodome

    Astrodome Member

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    I didnt mind the steal attempt.

    But I wouldve left Marisnick in the game after the HR. He seemed to be getting good swings and Aoki was cold on the bench. Fisher looked to have gotten some good jumps off of kimbrel on aoki's foul balls.

    Oh well, on to the next one.
     
  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Absolutely everybody who has an issue with the steal is merely complaining about the absolute result.... but odds still say it was the best chance the Astros had of scoring anything off Kimbrel. Not all moves work out... and sometimes the wrong move works. But if you've enjoyed rooting for a team that uses a TON of metrics, probabilities, and odds to make their decisions (and has lots of success with it), you're going to have to accept the times it doesn't work out and not go apoplectic on every single aspect of the managing (very much akin to when people only complain about the shift when it doesn't work).

    Also, Aoki was brought in simply because of his career numbers against Kelly.... at a time when a base hit was needed.

    Ultimately, not knocking out Price earlier was their undoing... then again, he is still a very good pitcher (albeit not worth the $25 million/year), and very good pitchers usually find ways to survive when their stuff is not as good as it could be.

    Keep plugging along... get guys healthy... there's absolutely no reason why this team can't go on another hot-streak/run (or two, or three) and coast to the playoffs.
     
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  14. Major

    Major Member

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    No, it was a pretty clear lack of math. I looked at the numbers and one was very different from all the others. You needed no math or analysis to see that. That's what I mean by qualitative vs quantative - they are two very simple things.

    Regardless, again, if you believe I'm wrong about the odds of winning, show us your version of the math. It should be really, really easy to do if you have any idea of what you're talking about.
     
  15. Major

    Major Member

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    Players have a 73% success rate against Kimbrel for his career (0-3 for this year). They have a 60% success rate against that catcher for his career, trending up each year (68% this year).

    Except, of course, it would be impossible to steal in your mind, right? That streak just can't be broken?

    At the end of the day, the Astros made the right play, and Boston made the perfect throw. The odds of them making that throw were substantially lower than the odds of Kimbrel making a pitch that gets Springer to not hit a double or HR. Again, very straightforward math. Simplified, it nearly doubled their odds to win.
     
  16. DaChamp

    DaChamp Member

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    This. Price was struggling big time. Not knocking him out and getting to their pen early in that game was what lost that game.
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    So rough to lose 2 one run games with a runner thrown out at home. I felt we outplayed them in both games, but their hits were more timely for the most part. Assuming we get healthy, I'm feeling like we are substantially better than Boston, though I do hope we get another bullpen arm and another starter if the cost isn't ridiculous.
     
  18. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Have to say...my first reaction was, "why take the bat out of Springer's hands in that spot??" But you guys have done a nice job of making a great argument, otherwise.
     
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  19. Surfguy

    Surfguy Contributing Member

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    No point in nitpicking the last loss. We blew so many opportunities. It was a complete team loss.
     
  20. RockFanFirst

    RockFanFirst Member

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    No kidding. This place can be insufferable after a loss sometimes.

    News flash: There will probably be about 40 more of these coming this season, which is actually really refreshing to say as we're only halfway through June.
     
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