I'm not seeing it unless Lucroy comes in for very cheap or someone gets hurt. His skills looked like he is falling off hard. Astros want the pitching staff to remain engaged with McCann. AJ is looking to keep McCann fresh by giving Gattis some meaningful time behind the dish. I except Luhnow to continue to push for Stassi to get early PT and see if he can handle more time. Greg Holland turned down 3years $52 million. He's not going to sign with Houston, too expensive.
I agree Holland doesn’t make much sense for Houston. Pundits link him to the Astros because Houston should have some money to spend and their closer struggled in the playoffs. But they have a pretty full bullpen and have yet to sign a FA with a QO attached. I’m sure Luhnow is loathe to give up a draft pick for an expensive, aging, Closer. I disagree about Lucroy. Assuming Houston thinks the last 18 months were more bad luck than decline, he could represent a great multi-year solution at catcher. I don’t think he makes sense on a 1 year deal and he certainly shouldn’t command an expensive long term contract. But something like $24M/3yrs plus incentives and maybe a 4th yr vesting option would be a pretty low risk move for Houston. I find it hard to believe Lucroy has fallen so far he can’t justify $8M/yr (which equates to ~1 war). He’d be worth nearly that much as just a quality backup. He currently projects to 2.4 war this season which would be worth ~$19M by itself. Gattis as a pure DH with the luxury of him being able to serve as a 3rd C is better than having a pure DH who serves as a 5th OF. And McCann is an aging player who is probably best used in closer to 80 games than 110.
I was trying to estimate how many games the Fresno Grizzlies would win if they played in the AL this year. My guess is around 55. Though if they outdo themselves, they might do better than the Marlins.
I won't call Jon Heyman worthless but I would say he is just trying make the uninformed assumption that the "Astros need a closer" oh here is a guy with a bunch of good numbers as a closer. It's weak reporting like 80% of what's out there. Pulled this article about Lucroy from the SBNation A's site. Some good details on the state of Lucroy abilities and a load of minutiae to bore most of us. https://www.athleticsnation.com/201...uld-sign-jonathan-lucroy-to-a-pillow-contract I'm not against Lucroy, I'm ok with it if he'll come for he right years and price for Luhnow. But I think the Astros might be best served to wait and see what the position holds with 3 we have. Then if need be trade mid season for JT or similar player. It's the safe call because Lucroy could be in decline, or get hurt, Stassi could come on and be solid, Gattis might have a career year and you'd want all the Gattis bat you could get. If they need a fill in catch mid season they get one easily with the many arms they have in the system. If they want a premium catcher then they'll have the ability to outbid most team that would be in the market for an upgrade. All in all JT plus team control and losing prospects is less risk than paying for Lucroy.
I'd prefer Realmuto, but depends on what Marlins and Lucroy want. Fine with staying as is. I like the idea of robbing from Jeter. Problem is that Astros don't have any prospects that are highly valued and likely overvalued by traditional teams (i.e., high upside, incredibly risky, performance doesn't match tools).
Traven Tapson is a young sportswriter I've enjoyed reading this year. He did a pretty in-depth article on Lucroy and tends toward a negative view on his future. Worth a read: https://offthewallbaseball.com/the-decline-of-jonathon-lucroy/traventapson/ " Becoming a free agent catcher at 31 after coming off your worst season as a professional is certainly not ideal, but what can the former All-Star reasonably expect to earn on the open market? In order to answer this question, let’s look at recent comparables. The most recent and analogous situation to the one that Lucroy will be facing this winter was the one that former Orioles catcher Matt Wieters faced last offseason. Wieters was also entering his age 31 season and was coming off the worst season of his career defensively and had experienced a similar decline in his defensive performance. However, despite all of those negative indicators of future performance, Wieters (with the help of the Nationals special relationship with his agent Scott Boras), inked the switch-hitting veteran catcher for 2 years and 21 million dollars. Although Lucroy is entering free agency with a similar outlook as Wieters had a year ago and also possesses a similar pedigree and reputation as a formerly elite catcher, it is hard for me to believe that Lucroy will have too many teams lining up for his services considering how poorly Wieters has played for the Nationals this season. Unlike Wieters, Lucroy is not represented by MLB super agent Scott Boras, who for decades has persuaded teams to give his clients top dollar. Taking all of these considerations into account, I predict Lucroy will be faced with a deal hovering in the range of 2 years, 16 million, which really is a shame considering that there was a point in his career in which calling him the best catcher in the sport was not an outrageous statement. "
I think the Astros should ride with McCann + Stassi at least until July. If that isn't working out, in all likelihood a trade can be arranged. Possibly even a trade for Realmuto.
And if I remember right Stanton, Judge and Gregorious are 0-13 v. him combined. Better believe Hinch would use him in that spot.
Looks like Hosmer signing with the Padres, 8 freakin years. Glad he’s out of the AL. Couldn’t stand him
