NBA Salary Cap For 17-18 Drops From One-Time Projection Of $108M All The Way Down To $99M

Which is no marketer's target market. How much disposable income do 13 year old casuals have?? If this is the bulk of NBA viewership...the NBA has a big problem.

 

You don't need disposable income when you have mommy's credit card.

 

Yep. And not so many people will tune in to watch a CP3-less Rockets up against Cleveland (as opposed to the g.d. Warriors against Cleveland).

 

guess what? 13 year olds can command a 2 parent households into spending $200 to go to games.

 

Absolutely. There's a good documentary that came out like a decade and a half ago that's still very accurate about teenage spending power and influence on the media. Also because teens use their parents income and not their own income choices are more limited. I'm in my 20s now. Yeah, I could drop $200 to go to a game or on some jerseys but that's also money I could save for a trip, or use for multiple nights of bar hopping or save up. If you're a teen and your parent is willing to drop that much cash your options are limited to a sporting event, maybe a concert, or video games.

 

This doesn’t really contradict what I said because:

1) The answer to my question was yes, the gambling money was factored in

2) Independent of ratings, playoff games bring in around $3-4M per home game, so if GS sweeps 3/4 rounds that is $9-27M BRI that doesn’t go into the split. This is what caused the initial cap forecast drop.

 

The biggest incomes might belong to the 35-49 market, but teenagers are a huge market and the ones that will actually buy NBA merchandise. Those teenagers have the ear of their income earning parents. I'm an older man now, I don't buy sneakers or jerseys anymore, but I'd certainly buy them for my kids. Plus, teenagers will still carry those fan allegiances and certain spending habits into adulthood. I bought NBA videogames until my mid-20's and basketball shoes into my 30's. Social media is also a big part of marketing and it's teenagers that are most active on those platforms.

Disney is the biggest media company in the world with a primary demographic of toddlers and elementary school children.

 

These comments are all true, BUT don't negate that my comment is still true: 13 year old casual's are not the preferred target market. Yes, they can get their parents to take them to a game or buy some merchandise for them...but they simply do not have the disposable income adults to. Adults can buy themselves season tickets, not just take their kids to one game. They set up a man cave, not have their parents buy them a tshirt. In fact, they don't really have ANY disposable income...they are just a means of getting to those who do. Further consider that if the viewership really is young kids, that means that they don't continue watching as they get older...they are replaced by more young kids. Not a good trend. Disney is a good example to bring up...but equating the NBA with children's cartoon characters probably isn't the ideal thing the NBA is looking for, either. At least I hope not...I would find a product geared to that group unwatchable.

Further, it wasn't just the age that is the issue. It is that they are 'casual' fans. Casual fans are very transient. You have them one week, the next they decide to do something else. Those not invested in the team or the game aren't going to spend a bunch of money on it...or even continue watching continuously or for any extended period of time.

I highly doubt you'd get any NBA marketer, at least any marketer speaking truthfully, say that they would be ecstatic to know that young teenagers not really that interested in their product were their main viewers. They are not a bad group to be catching, but you wouldn't want it to be your main viewers. Consider what this forum would be like if the primary viewers were 13 year old casuals...would that be a place most of us would want to be? I doubt it.

 

Sweet!

More free room for quality players to join the Warriors

 

I agree with you that 13 year olds aren't the NBA's target market, but it's certainly not the young HENRYs like the article would imply. The league wants as broad of a spectrum as possible, but definitely aims younger than golf or tennis. And while Disney markets to a younger demographic their movies are mostly meant to be consumed by anyone. Young Disney fans grow up into adults that are still loyal to Disney, can consume their content, and get their kids to be Disney fans. That's exactly what a sports league would want from their own fans. Ask people when they started watching their favorite sport and the overwhelming majority will say they started watching as kids. A lot of the brands listed in your article cut out large swaths of the population: Everlane, SuitSupply, MadeWell, and Bonobos? Too high end for a casual sports league like the NBA.

And I strongly disagree with your take on casual viewers. We're not casual sports fans, we're fanatics. We know all the stats of all the players around the league. But we are the minority. The league is built on casual viewers, people who never knew anything that was going on in the league outside of Jordan, Kobe, or Curry. They tune in to their favorite player, buy their merchandise, and get their casual friends to do the same. I doubt the vast majority of kids that wanted to be "Like Mike" even knew who BJ Armstrong was.

You're right, I wouldn't want to be surrounded by casual fans. That's why I'm on a smaller board like Clutchfans than a huge board like ESPN. But I think the ESPN board is actually more representative of the actual viewership.

 

I don't think we are the minority. But we are taken for granted. Sports entities chase the casual fans precisely because they are casual....they need to be enticed to watch. They are the sports version of swing voters. Swing voters aren't the majority, by far...but they do determine elections.

If indeed we are the minority (and I would agree its getting more that way)...that explains the drop in numbers and salary cap. Ask baseball what happens if you ever finally piss off the 'real' fans enough that they stop watching. It's a rapid drop, and takes a very long time to recover, it that ever happens.

It might be...which is why I don't bother wtih ESPN boards, and also why I don't watch games nearly as often as I used to. Causal fans, and sports talk geared towards them, are mind numbing and annoying. Why consciously choose to be annoyed?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradad...18-season-was-great-for-the-nba/#4a73a28f2ecb

Looks like I was wrong. The median age of the NBA viewer is 42 years old, but the article calls it relatively young compared to the NFL's (50) and and MLB (57).

Numbers are growing across the board for the NBA in every category though: TV viewership, attendance, merchandising, league pass subscribers, revenue, and team valuation. The only reason the reason the cap projection dropped for 17-18 was because the lack of revenue from the 16-17 playoffs due to fewer games. The Warriors and Cavs nearly swept their way to the finals, costing the NBA a lot of revenue. The NBA isn't in trouble, it's thriving.

 

Fixed.

 

Those demographics are a lot better, marketing wise. I do still see a trend that could potentially be trouble for the NBA down the road. It's core vs casual viewers. I know LOTS of core fans who watch a lot less NBA than they used to, coinciding with Durant going to OKC. Some because they just hated him for doing it, others (like me) because it made the NBA fairly predictable and a lot less interesting to watch. Yet, as you point out, total viewership went up. Why? Casual fans, enticed by the LeBron Durant matchup, and just watching to see OKC play. That's fine for now...but as I indicated above, casual flans are, well...casual. They can easily go somewhere else. Getting the hard core fans back is a lot harder. The NFL is facing this same issue, with declining viewership currently. Still king, but down nonetheless. The anthem issue has a lot to do with that...something completely unforeseen. Something completely unforeseen could strike the NBA, particularly if some of its players also get a little more political. People don't tune into sports to watch politics. Just the opposite, quite often...they tune in to get away from all that.

Houston is fortunate to be one of the very few teams that can make a very reasonable claim to be able to compete with, and beat, the Warriors, so this trend doesn't impact them as much (although the blatant bias from NBA and its refs isn't helping that any). But fans of most teams have a reason to watch....why? Those teams have no shot of even getting to, much less winning, the championship, this year or any year in the near future. That's not good for the NBA, despite what the current viewership shows. If Houston beat GS, and a legitimate rivalry exists...that changes things. Fans love rivalries.