MOMENTUM

To me, momentum is no more than a psychological state brought about by recent events and environmental attributes. The former works against us where the later could help us. But in general, I dont put too much stock in momentum because it can change very fast and easily.

 

Momentum is for real in Baseball. You can see it, you can feel it, and there is no way to avoid it. The momentum in this series will shift in the Astros favor if Verlander pitches his ass off again. The bats will respond if he is fanning batters. The crowd will become less restless, and the energy will be high in the stadium. Hate to put that pressure on him, but that is just the shot in the arm they need.

Look, almost every single sports writer picked this series to go 7 games. I thought they were crazy, but it looks like they may be right. A large amount of them picked the 'Stros to win in 7.

LETS GO!!!

 

I get frustrated with these guys, but, honestly, I also feel empathetic towards them. They're young guys and baseball is an extremely mental and emotional sport. They may have physical talents and muscle memory to do incredible things, but they probably lack the mental skills to create momentum and arrest themselves before they get into downward spirals. It's not that they're weak in that area. Many, if not most, of us are. I certainly am. And in a sport that makes you perform the next day after you've just had a terrible one, not having the coping skills to get back to your center for that next game is a huge problem.

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If you read my past posts on here, especially in GARM around the time when Harden and the Rockets quit in Game 6 against the Spurs last season, but even before then, I really advocate that these teams have mental and emotional training as well. As a person who's been in therapy for over a decade to little benefit, I think I finally have found the one thing that actually has the potential to be effective: Dialectical Behavior Therapy.

(Disclosure: I currently have two weekly sessions with the Houston DBT Center. I pay them, so there's definitely no financial incentive for me to talk them up. I put links to things, because I'm anal like that.)

DBT is based on a large number of discrete usable mental skills that fall into four categories that will be extremely useful to me but also would be useful to any athlete, I think:

1) Mindfulness: being present in the moment without worrying about the past or the future. Tools to be able to rediscover your center quickly and eventually automatically, while not judging yourself harshly about things that happen.

2) Distress tolerance

3) Emotion regulation

4) Interpersonal effectiveness

As a baseball/softball player myself, I can see the first three as useful for getting back to a clear mind between games, between at-bats, between innings, even between pitches. The fourth I can see as useful for building healthy, productive, and trusting relationships with your teammates, so you can support them, and they can support you effectively.

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My hope is certainly that our guys will get back to the state we've seen them in before where they can absolutely pull out this series. Verlander, through sheer experience (and maybe other things I don't know about), will go out there and calmly pitch his best. But, momentum really is just a volatile mental state, and it may or may not play a factor for either team in these coming games. I just wish that we paid heed to the mental aspect of these sports, because if we did, I think we'd see consistency, and I think it would be consistency with positive results on the scoreboards.

 

What's actually happening is that you're seeing results, and then retroactively deciding that's momentum. "Momentum" exists until it does not, which means it's completely meaningless. LMJ pitched his ass off in game 4 and then the bats got the big hit, giving the Astros "momentum", which lasted until the other team got some hits.

Verlander pitching his ass off will not awaken the bats any more than they did in game 2. The bats will do their thing. Verlander will do his thing. And hopefully the result will be a lot of great hitting and great pitching, but the two happen independently.

 

This makes the incorrect assumption that only one team is involved in games and the results are all about that one team. These are two great teams. They've played 5 games, and one team is up 3-2. That's the result you'd expect if you have 2 equally good teams, and the team that's up had 3 home games. For all the talk about the Astros being mentally off, maybe it's just that the Yankees are a fantastic home team and did what they were expected to do in those games. Just because a team loses some games doesn't mean they mentally failed.

EDIT: to clarify, in general, I agree with you that mental resiliance and training is good and very important for team sports. But I would argue that, by default, most of these guys are that way (obviously, you have exceptions like Ankiel and Lidge). Baseball is a game of failure, and these guys have been playing it for 10-20 years. They've experienced tons of failure. All have choked in key situations. All have come up big in key situations. I think anyone who gets to the MLB level knows how to handle the emotions/etc of it all - frankly, far more than fans who get on extreme highs and lows after each game.

 

Think it would be hard to argue against a scientific law. Momentum is real. The only question is do you apply enough force to change it. Which the Astros will need to do. It's science. And we are up against it. But as noted, there are at least two forces at work. That's important to jot down. Baseball analytics have only looked at results, but have never quantified the force being applied that could change momentum or generate the results being analyzed.

All that said, in the last twenty years seasonal momentum leading into the playoffs has proven to be true, while over the last 100 years it has not. Make of that what you will. I don't know of studies done by series or by game, only by September to October.

I would also argue that the psychology of failure does impact players in the playoffs. I mean qualitatively you see it in the forum, you feel it watching the game, players like Smoltz talk about how every base runner and every out feel amplified, you see managers completely abandon regular season strategy. That has to be real. The qualitiative evidence is so overwhelming that pressure exists, it has to. As to who rises and falls in it quantitatively, well that would need to be studied, Including why. But I have no doubt there is a psychological aspect to the playoffs that is amplified, and that alters some players psychi. Clemens threw bat at Piazza and tried to kill him.

 

I agree momentum is only good until the next starting pitcher. With a day off and a change in ballparks I'm not counting on game 6 as a continuation of game 5. That said can't take any for granted. I expect Verlander to pitch like Verlander. The batters have to hit like they've done most of the season. Can't count on Verlander going 9 innings again holding the Yankees to one hit ball. If there is momentum it's that Judge is confident and no second guessing himself like he did earlier. We need runs and we need them badly.

 

Spoken like someone who googled "momentum" and didn't realize that the type of momentum he googled has nothing to do with the concept of momentum being referred to in sports.

 

Our hitters haven't hit like they have all season for the entire series. Why do you have confidence that will change tomorrow?

 

What makes you think it won't? Each baseball game is independent of the previous one - they have a day off, they are playing in a different stadium in front of different fans, they are facing a different pitcher, etc. Teams regularly hit one day and don't the next day. Our bullpen was horrendous in July and then suddenly was nearly perfect for 3 weeks in August, before sucking again, etc.

The Astros themselves hit brilliantly for 4 games vs Boston and then nothing in the next 4 games. The Yankees have had no success at all against Keuchel but hit him well yesterday. Things change. Will it tomorrow? Who knows. But the lack of hitting the last few games doesn't really tell us anything about tomorrow, any moreso than the hitting against the Red Sox told us anything about the Yankees series, or the Yankees' hitting in the first two games told us anything about the next 3.

 

You merely want to use the criteria you feel like using to justify your position and I can do the same.

I'd say the lack of hitting through five games against this team in the playoffs tells us a lot more about what's going to happen tomorrow than a bunch of games in June. I've already told you this and you gave me this sarcastic comment about how hitters don't magically get better in the postseason. You fail to recognize that players are self-aware and not just stats on a stat sheet. Pressure, atmosphere, confidence, fear, MOMENTUM all play a role in how players respond. Teams also learn about their opponents and what can be exploited in a short series, both teams are learning and that plays a role. The difference in MLB as opposed to other sports is that the pitcher plays a gigantic role in how all of that plays out.

Ken Giles is the ultimate example of this regular season stats as a predictor of the playoffs phenomenon. People repeatedly posted his second half stats to show he was this dominant closer when a lot of people including myself, despite those stats, had little confidence in him. Here in the playoffs Giles has given up as many home runs as he did in the previous three months. Four appearances, 7 hits including 2 home runs, 5 earned runs in 5 innings. A lot of times Giles is a one pitch pitcher with that slider. He gives up an .860 OPS off that fastball and he has no idea where that pitch is going. These teams in the postseason know everything about what Giles is doing, the type of scrutiny he doesn't receive during the regular season.

 

As you say players are self aware. They make adjustments and better players make better adjustments. The Astros have good hitters and you don't put up the numbers they have over 162 games without making adjustments. If you look at the the NY hitters they've made adjustments and it's up to the Stros to do the same thing.

Anyway if you think the Stros have lost already why bother with even following them anymore?

 

If momentum is real... how did the Astros lose game three 8-1?

 

I hope they're going to make adjustments. We'll see today.

 

So........ as Earl Weaver once said, momentum is as good as your next starting pitcher?

 

Momentum isnt the only or even the most important factor.

 

Came here to post that. Good job.

 

Chemistry is greater than momentum