Is James Harden Clutch?

basically no. He's a big ass choker in the playoffs especially.

 

Dave is Clutch

 

The last time he was Clutch was the 14/15 season. Since then he has been anti clutch besides the odd game here and there

 

Not really. He's too efficient to hunt for his own shots. It's a blessing and a curse.

 

You mean when DMo was starting???

 

he's a clutch choker. always on cue

 

NO!!!

next thread!

 

Clutch isn't defined by ability of making shots. Clutch is defined by decision making and not being scared of the moment. I used to believe he could be trusted in making the right decision in late game decisions.

He is not.

 

Eh, he certainly has it in him to be clutch



I think he needs to rely on that mid-range step back more than that silly 3 point step back, usually when he's playing badly it's because he keeps trying to hit that 3 point step back and not driving or completely forgetting that he pretty much always hits that mid-range step back.

 

Harden in '15 was one of the most clutch players I've EVER seen. Harden didnt become Stepback King JUST from being good at that shot, but for making them in the PRESSURE moments.

He's regressed in his clutchness since. Mostly due to falling in love with the junk pull-up 3. Harden at best is a good shooter, but acts like a GREAT shooter, with results being AWFUL shooting. Harden is very good at spot-up shooting off a pass. But since becoming a point guard he's having the ball in his hands more, while trying to figure out the dualities of being scorer vs passer, and doesnt have others setting HIM up.

 

LeBron, Durant, Harden rank among top 10 performers in clutch situations

Who has been the most clutch player of this era?

That's a thorny question, isn't it? Ah, but it's a fun one, too. A disclaimer: We're not even sure if "clutchness" is a skill, something that can repeatedly give a player an edge in tight situations. Secondly, if clutch was a skill, how would you measure it?

Michael Beuoy has taken a stab at this topic. As the site founder of Inpredictable.com, he has developed a statistical model to try to identify players who move the needle in clutch situations. He calls it "clutch WPA," which is the amount of win probability added above or below a "normal" play.

Let's use an example. Take Avery Bradley's winner in Game 3 of the East finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With the ball in a tie game, the Celtics had the upper hand. How big was their advantage? According to historical clock-and-score data, teams in the Celtics' spot have won the game 62.7 percent of the time when facing this particular set of circumstances. Makes sense.

When Bradley's shot bounced around and eventually dropped through the net, the Celtics went up 3 with 0.2 seconds left. Teams in this scenario won the game 99.8 percent of the time. The difference, then, is 37.1 percent. On average, a 3-point shot adds 4.6 percent to a team's probability of winning. Beuoy's clutch WPA would credit Bradley with the difference of +32.5 of clutch WPA.

This cuts both ways. If you miss a big shot or turn the ball over at a critical juncture, you'll lose clutch WPA points according to the difference in win probability. Clutch play has traditionally been measured simply by number of game winners or buzzer-beaters, but this method is much more comprehensive. If you made 10 game-winners, but missed 90 others, those 90 shouldn't magically disappear from our memory or evaluation.

One other appealing feature of this model is not all clutch shots are the same. The size of the moment matters. The NBA.com definition of clutch situations -- when the game is within five in the final five minutes -- is useful, but it lacks some key context. Under that criteria, a shot with 4:30 left, up 4 is treated the same as a game-winning shot at the buzzer. One shot moves the needle very little; the other literally moves the needle from one side to the other.

Beuoy understands the limitations of his model. It does not incorporate assists, rebounds, blocks or steals into the equation. So, yes, LeBron James' block on Andre Iguodala in Game 7 was one of the most clutch defensive plays in NBA history, but it doesn't count in this model. Secondly, it doesn't incorporate opponent. But as you'll see soon, James doesn't exactly need any help in the clutch department.

What you'll find below is the top 10 list of clutch WPA among active players, which has been prorated to 82 games. In other words, how many games has a player won or lost per 82 games based purely on his clutch play? This also puts younger players on equal footing with older players who have had more opportunities to boost their clutch WPA. Also note that Beuoy's database goes back to 2003-04, which gives us 14 seasons of data. For more on Inpredictable's clutch model, go here and here.​

 

With all the fine print out of the way, let's get to the fun stuff.

10. Al Horford | Boston Celtics
Clutch WPA: 1.49

Yeah, Al Horford. With a silky jumper and a winning pedigree, Horford remains one of the best performers in late-game situations. In his career, he has shot a remarkable 9-of-17 (53 percent) on field goal attempts in the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game. In fact, he's the only player on record who has made more than half of his shots in those situations with a minimum of 15 attempts.

He was a two-time champion at the college level. Celtics fans will remember back in November, Horford came up with the game-winning putback and the game-saving block at the buzzer against Detroit. Horford's clutch WPA in the playoffs tops MVP candidates Kevin Durant, James Harden and Stephen Curry. He's coming up big in this postseason. Before John Wall's game-winning 3 in Game 6 of the East semifinals, it was Horford's 16-footer that put the Celtics up 2 with seven seconds left. And in the Game 3 win, Horford drove for 2 on Tristan Thompson to put the Celtics up 3 with 45 seconds left.

9. Chris Paul | LA Clippers
Clutch WPA: 1.61

If you take care of the ball and make shots at a high percentage, you'll fare nicely on this list. Paul does both, even if he hasn't gone deep in the playoffs like some others. Paul has had his fair share of late-game blunders. The pair of turnovers in Game 5 against OKC in the 2014 West semifinals immediately come to mind.

But Paul has generally been a beast in late-game situations. He owns the fourth-highest PER in clutch situations (NBA.com version) since 2007 and the best for any point guard. Before Joe Johnson won Game 1 of the Jazz-Clippers series this postseason, Paul hit the game-tying floater with 13 seconds left, just some of his 10 consecutive points in the fourth quarter to carry the Clippers. And who could forget the backbreaking, game-winner off the glass against the Spurs in Game 7 of their 2015 first-round series with 1.0 second left on the clock? Paul is a Point God even if the Clippers can't stay healthy.

8. Isaiah Thomas | Boston Celtics
Clutch WPA: 1.77

Of course, the "King of the Fourth" finds himself on this list. When defenses clamp down late, the 5-foot-9 point guard often stands tallest. He led all players in fourth-quarter points this season and did so in 87 fewer attempts and 32 fewer turnovers than Russell Westbrook. His 2016-17 regular-season campaign registered the second-highest clutch WPA since 2003-04, earning a 5.19 figure this season alone.

Thomas' clutch performance has been stellar. He owns a 61.9 percent true-shooting percentage in clutch situations in his career, which is higher than anybody on this list. As the Cavs pulled away in Game 4 of this season's East finals, Thomas' absence was noticeable as the Celtics' well dried up late.

7. C.J. McCollum | Portland Trail Blazers
Clutch WPA: 1.84

The Lehigh University standout is not afraid of the moment. In February 2017 against Dallas, McCollum etched his first career game-winner in the final five seconds, after the legendary Dirk Nowitzki nailed a go-ahead shot on the trip before. Damian Lillard has gotten more of the spotlight, but McCollum has been an absolute beast in big moments as well.

Believe it or not, McCollum is two buckets away from becoming a member of the 50/40/90 club (from the floor, 3-point and free-throw line) in clutch situations for his career. He's shooting 49.2 percent from the floor on 185 attempts, 40.4 percent from deep on 52 attempts and 91.3 percent at the line in the final five minutes of games within five, per NBA.com tracking. In the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game, McCollum holds a ridiculous 72.9 percent true-shooting percentage. That might not be sustainable over a larger sample size, but this 25-year-old has definitely earned this spot. Only IT4 was more clutch during the regular season, according to Beuoy's model.

6. James Harden | Houston Rockets
Clutch WPA: 1.93

OK, so he didn't have a great Game 6 in this season's West semifinals loss to the Spurs. But Harden has come up big throughout his career. He might lack a long line of iconic game winners on his ledger, but Nuggets fans should recall his coast-to-coast clutch game-winning layup a couple of months ago and the ensuing steal to ice the game. Harden also landed the knockout blow with a clutch jumper with 12 seconds left in Game 3 against Dallas in the 2015 playoffs.

What Harden brings is consistency. Unlike LeBron James and Stephen Curry, Harden has never registered a negative clutch WPA in any regular season of his career. To consider how rare that is, Russell Westbrook has a negative clutch WPA for his career (minus-1.45). With top-notch efficiency and a knack for getting easy points at the line, Harden's clutchness doesn't fit the traditional mold. But the Beard, save for that recent Game 6, has come up big plenty.​

 

5. Jimmy Butler | Chicago Bulls
Clutch WPA: 1.94

I mean, he's called Jimmy Buckets for a reason. Despite sharing the rock with Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo, the Chicago star put up the third-highest clutch WPA of the season. He shot 11-of-23 (47.8 percent) in the final minute of a one-possession game this season (league average is 35.5 percent) and only turned the ball over once.

Butler has been a metronome of reliability down the stretch. The Marquette product has finished top-5 in the clutch WPA leaderboard in each of the past three seasons. Meanwhile, former backcourt mate Derrick Rose has six negative clutch WPA campaigns in eight seasons. No matter who he's playing next to, Butler gets buckets when it matters.

4. Kevin Durant | Golden State Warriors
Clutch WPA: 2.06

It wasn't Durant's best season in this department (he ranked 26th), but last season, he finished second overall to ... yup, Stephen Curry. Contrast that with Westbrook, who finished 454th in clutch WPA in 2015-16. Maybe that factored into Durant's decision to join the Dubs? Either way, Westbrook flipped the script and delivered the better clutch season than either Durant or Curry in 2016-17.

Durant possesses key characteristics that make him a nightmare in clutch situations: he can get any shot off and his jumper is money. His defining moment has yet to come in a Warriors uniform, but his 2012 run to the Finals was chock full of clutch moments (just ask the Lakers and Mavs).

3. Dirk Nowitzki | Dallas Mavericks
Clutch WPA: 2.09

Remember when people thought Dirk was soft? Not a winner? Yeah, forget all that. By nearly any measure, Nowitzki has been more clutch than Kobe Bryant. Here are some facts: Since 2003-04, Nowitzki outpaced Bryant 29.5 to 20.1 in clutch WPA (postseason included). In the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game, Nowitzki shot 31-of-86 (36 percent) while Bryant shot 40-of-147 (27.2 percent). That's almost twice as many misses by Bryant in those moments.

Nowitzki's signature jumper is as unblockable as it is accurate. His 2010-11 postseason ranks far and away the most clutch playoff run in the database (2.15 clutch WPA) and his 2005-06 campaign tied for fourth, coincidentally with Dwyane Wade's 2005-06, when the Heat rallied to beat the Mavericks in the NBA Finals. (If Nowitzki had made that crucial Game 3 free throw, he'd have broken the tie with Wade).

There are too many clutch shots on his highlight reel to list, but people forget the game-winner in Game 2 of the 2011 Finals where he just blitzed past Chris Bosh in the high post and laid it in over the Heat defense with 3.6 seconds left. And he's still doing it. Nowitzki's 2016-17 regular season ranked 39th in clutch WPA ahead of guys with sterling reps like Carmelo Anthony, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard.

2. LeBron James | Cleveland Cavaliers
Clutch WPA: 2.35

His clutch numbers are astounding. James has by far the highest total clutch WPA in the database, netting almost twice as many wins as Bryant in clutch situations (36.36 vs. 20.13). James' epic 2007-08 regular season is the best since 2003-04, delivering a 5.45 clutch WPA thanks to his 10 field goals to tie or take the lead in the final minute. Of the top 15 most-clutch regular seasons in the database, James' name shows up four times; Bryant (two) is the only other name that shows up more than once.

In the postseason, James has shot 15-of-34 (44 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute. By comparison, Bryant shot 10-of-37 (27 percent) in such situations, per Basketball Reference.com tracking. In 2015, FiveThirtyEight.com found that James may be the most-clutch playoff shooter of his generation, and that study was done before he won the 2016 Finals against a 73-9 team.

The crazy thing is that James was knocked for so long for seemingly preferring a clutch assist over taking a clutch shot. But this model doesn't even look at assists -- just shots and turnovers. Looking at overall stats, James has a 40.9 PER in clutch situations in the past decade, which is eight points higher than any other player during that time.

1. Anthony Davis | New Orleans Pelicans
Clutch WPA: 2.87

Oh. So this is what happens when you have arms for days, a tight handle and a knockdown midrange jumper. Davis had a so-so year in the clutch department, but his track record has been nearly flawless since he joined the NBA ranks. His 2014-15 regular season ranks third best in the entire database, only behind Isaiah Thomas' 2016-17 and James' 2007-08 campaigns. Two of Davis' five seasons in the NBA already rank in the top 50 in a pool of 7,000 player-seasons in the database.

You want some numbers? The Brow is 19-of-35 (54.3 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute for his career and less than half of those were assisted. If we zoom into the final 10 seconds of one-possession games, he owns a preposterous 67.7 true-shooting percentage (league average is 47.7 percent). That seems like a fluke until you realize he has a 61.2 true-shooting percentage in the final five minutes of games within five and a 64.2 true-shooting percentage in the final minute of one-possession games. The Brow is just cold-blooded.

It's breathtaking to consider that Davis -- in just five seasons -- already has accumulated more career clutch WPA than big-shot legends Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce. The buzzer-beating, double-clutch 3-pointer to beat the Thunder on their home floor in February 2015 remains one of the most ridiculous clutch shots in recent history. Sure, we'd like to see more in the postseason, but the dude is 24 years old. He's just getting started.​

 

Here's a look at where some notable active and retired players land in terms of clutch winning probability added for the regular season, postseason and per-82 games.

Notable players based on clutch-WPA (Since 2003-04)
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Spoiler

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Notable observations​

• Where would Kobe Bryant rank on this list? If we included retired players, he'd finish 10th with a 1.78 clutch WPA score. His total clutch WPA would rank fourth behind James, Nowitzki and Ray Allen. What's holding Bryant back? A whole lot of misses. He fired up 1,063 misses in the final five minutes of games within five while no one else since 1997 tallied more than 850. His field goal percentage in those moments was a below-average 39.5 and same goes for shots in the final 10 seconds of one-possession games (27.2 percent vs. league-average 27.7 percent). What Bryant has on everybody is sheer number of attempts. For Bryant fans, that's a feature of the Bryant system. For others? It's a bug.

• If there's one trend that pops out on the 50 notables list, it's that poor-shooting point guards clog the bottom. That makes some sense, but this model might be overly harsh on these guys. Often times, they're forced to fire up last-second shots as the primary ball handler. But then again, some of those guys drain the clock precisely so they can take that shot. And as a reminder, this does not factor in clutch passes or clutch assists, which hurts guys like Rajon Rondo, who has shot just 2-of-16 in the final 10 seconds of one-possession games along with 6-of-11 from the line.

• Numbers and the eye-test agree: Stephen Curry didn't have as many magical moments this season as he did last. He finished No. 1 overall in clutch WPA in 2015-16 but fell to 70th this past season alongside Durant, crystalizing in that infamous moment in the Memphis game early this season. As perhaps the best shooter ever, you'd expect him to be higher on this list that values bucket-getting, but this model considers one key factor: turnovers. Maybe no more gratuitous behind-the-back passes in Finals games?

• Kawhi Leonard checks in at 19th among all active players, but why isn't he higher? Over the past two seasons, Leonard generated the third-highest total clutch WPA (6.14) among all players, but he just didn't compile enough during his days as a role player. Leonard generated just 1.33 clutch WPA total in his previous four seasons as he ceded big shots to others on the team. That's not the case anymore.

• If you look up Brandon Roy's profile on Basketball-Reference, you'll see one of his listed nicknames is "Daggers," which is amazing and accurate. He specialized in daggers throughout his too-short career. If we included all players since 2003-04, he would have placed third on this list just behind Davis and James. His 2008-09 season was mind-boggling: he shot 9-of-16 (56.3 percent) on shots to tie or go ahead in the final minute. Living legend.

• Ray Allen deserves more pub for being a clutch shooter. If this was a championship probability model, he might be off the charts thanks to his 2013 Finals shot that helped force a Game 7.

 

None of that matters @J.R. ...

We need to trade Frauden so I can watch the Rockets again.

 

I tend to agree with Morey that clutchness if defined as making last second winning/tying shots, then it is just variance in small-sized samples. Simply put, it's just luck, pretty meaningless.

If by clutchness it means a player works well under pressure, calmly making good decisions to help the team win, then that's a meaningful discussion.

 

Official 6th clutch player of the season and somewhere average in the postseason.