If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

One question for anyone to answer what would be too much to offer Cole? I think for me it is $275 million for 7 years, I know it’s not my money but that I would say is even my limit.

And I’d even let him explore Free Agency in 3 years with an opt out clause.

If the Astros massage this 2-3 year window, it will cement the status of a dynasty.

 

I’ll get raked for it, but if I were Luhnow I wouldn’t offer more than $170M/5. But I would be willing to go for a higher aav on a shorter deal (like $120M/3yrs). If I were intent on submitted what I expect would be a competitive offer, it would be something like $225M/7yrs with an opt out:

2019: 50M
2020: 50M
Opt out
2021-2025: $25M/yr

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27848798/what-learned-far-mlb-playoffs-come-next

Cole could return to Houston, but the Astros would need to either increase their payroll significantly or get awfully creative in moving money.

This season, their payroll is somewhere in the $170 million range, factoring in the $24 million they received in the Greinke trade as a lump sum. Even after losing Cole, ace reliever Will Harris, starters Wade Miley and Collin McHugh, and relievers Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to free agency, the Astros are staring at more than $156 million alone for Greinke, Verlander, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, Ryan Pressly and Yuli Gurriel.

George Springer could make the case for upward of $20 million in arbitration. Roberto Osuna could get a bump to the $10 million range. Carlos Correa will be around $7 million. MLB Trade Rumors projects all of the Astros' arbitration-eligible players to earn more than $60 million.

Which means before even considering signing Cole, the Astros on salaries alone could be in excess of the luxury-tax threshold.

So what's Cole going to cost?

Put it this way: The last time a free agent had anything close to as good a walk year as Cole was Greinke in 2015. Let's compare them:

Greinke: 222⅔ innings pitched, 40 walks, 200 strikeouts, 14 home runs allowed, 1.66 ERA, 2.76 FIP, .187/.231/.276 opponent slash

Cole: 212⅓ innings pitched, 48 walks, 329 strikeouts, 29 home runs allowed, 2.50 ERA, 2.64 FIP, .186/.237/.343 opponent slash

A few things worth noting: The league-average ERA in 2015 was 3.96, and this season it's 4.51, so this is a far more difficult environment. Dodger Stadium was the 23rd-hitter-friendliest park in the major leagues in 2015, whereas Minute Maid Park was seventh this year. And -- here's the big factor -- Greinke was 32 years old in 2015, while Cole is 29.

Greinke received $206.5 million over six seasons. With deferrals factored in, the deal was valued at approximately $194 million -- a little more than $32 million a year. If a 32-year-old with inferior stuff performing in a far better environment is worth $32 million, how much is a 29-year-old with a high-octane repertoire who conquered the superball worth?

That's what I'm asking.

Eight years, $250 million.

Eight years!

That's not a question.

Eight years?

No free-agent pitcher has received eight years since Colorado gave $121 million to Mike Hampton nearly 20 years ago. Perhaps it never will be offered again. But if David Price at 32 years old warranted a seven-year, $217 million deal, Cole -- a better pitcher, a younger pitcher -- warrants something bigger. Could be that teams just offer a higher per-year value. But considering the need for starting pitching and the paucity of front-line types today, if it takes the extra year or those extra dollars to get Cole, one would have to believe at least one team will go there if it means getting the player.

 

No matter where he goes, Gerrit Cole owes Luhnow and Strom BIG TIME.

 

The Astros will have helped him become a better pitcher. He will hopefully have helped the Astros win a World Series. Seems like they'd be even to me.

 

He's guaranteed himself the $200M I wasn't sure he would get 2 months ago. I think that 8 year $250M deal in the Passan article seems on point.

 

I hope to god the one thing that Cole sees from all of us is just how classless the Yanks fans are. As a man of god and someone who seems to have good morals, I think the **** that Yanks fans did this weekend will sway Cole away from ever joining them. I think the Yanks will try to throw a stupid amount at Cole and I hope for everyone's sakes he rejects it. Remember rumor was it that they were willing to offer Machado 225-250mil last year. Imagine the money they can throw at Cole.

 

I always though the team to worry about per the press was the San Francisco Giants.

 

So thinking about this whole situation, and really the only comparison I can think of is the Carlos Beltran situation. Basically a stud at the peak of his powers completely bringing it in the playoffs. Any other comparable situation that y'all can think of?

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-playoff-performances-before-free-agency-c299731194

Randy Johnson is biggest one I remember.

 

Sorry wasn't clear, I was more referring to the aspect of being an houston fan with a player most likely to leave as a free agent. Not sure what other comparable players we've had leave houston as free agents?

 

If he don’t wan

if he doesn’t want to resign with us we can go after bumgarner or Strasburg. Under Brent strong they can be just as good as Cole. Cole wasn’t the best pitcher before he came to Houston.

 

Mike Hampton left after going 22-4. Daryl Kile left after going 19-7. Both were among the best pitchers in the league.

 

How much does the organization take home if we win a WS? Isn’t it like 40m?

 

The participants get the money. The organization itself doesn’t get anything except the residual benefits of winning.

 

Right. Misworded, but that was my question. I wonder how much money Astros ownership (or other MLB organizations) bets from winning the WS. Aside from playoff bonuses for the players and all that, from tickets, merchandise, memorabilia, etc.

 

Yea, I'd be interested to see a ball park number for what the franchise pulls in for an extended post-season and WS victory.

 

From what I have read, organizations can reap over $100MM worth of revenue in apparel, next year's ticket sales, etc. I've preached from the beginning of the season, for the Astros to even have a chance of re-signing Cole they would have to win the World Series.

 

I do think it’s reasonable to assume that winning another World Series makes it much more feasible for them to go up to $40M over the tax each of the next 2 seasons. Whether or not that means they can afford Cole remains to be seen.

 

Snake the more I think about it I like your idea of front loading an offer to Cole ('20+'21) and than putting an opt out clause at that point. The contract itself is for say seven yrs but if he wants to leave after '21 to go home he's still going to demand a huge contract at that point.

This way he at least gets to spend the next two years staying with this nucleus and guys he's become really good friends with (especially JV). They also have an opportunity to do some historic stuff as well.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.