Minor League spring training will be kicking off pretty soon. Pitchers and catchers have already reported, while position players will arrive on Wednesday. Obviously, everyone in the system will be evaluated; some won't even make it to Opening Day. To be a guy fighting to make the big leagues and to see those dreams dashed in Spring Training is a cruel fate. At the same time, there are prospects who have been buried under the pressure of expectations. Prospects who have yet to live up to their billing. Basically, guys who have progressed at a slower-than-expected pace, whether due to injury or underperformance. These are the guys who need big years in order to preserve their prospect status. In doing so, these players prove that they can play a part of their organization's future plans. If not.... then they will just fall by the wayside. Replaced by a younger, more exciting, more highly-regarded prospect who has a greater chance of fulfilling that potential. So, I present to you... five Astros prospects who are facing make-or-break years in 2013. I could just go ahead and say everyone who was drafted before 2011 is in a make-or-break situation and end the thread right here, but that would be incredibly lazy. Also, this list is open to interpretation. I would greatly appreciate any input from you guys. I will revisit this thread at the beginning of the season, various points throughout it, and at the end to reassess the prospects mentioned in this list. Ultimately, it is to see whether they have done enough to at the very least, buy themselves some more time, or if their time in the Astros organization has run out. Without further ado... here are 5 prospects that need big years in 2013. 1. Paul Clemens, RHP Clemens was probably the biggest disappointment in 2012. He was the talk of Spring Training last year, as he was throwing some serious heat and complementing it with a mid-70s curve. Clemens put himself in prime position to earn a midseason callup... but that never materialized. Instead, he suffered back spasms, his season unraveled soon after, and eventually hit its nadir as he was demoted to Corpus, where he was able to regain some of his lost momentum. He'll get another shot at OKC, but if he falters, then he's pretty much toast unless he moves to the bullpen. 2. Jio Mier, SS This sounds harsh, given that Mier looked a lot better the second time around in Lancaster before a hamstring injury ruined his season. He did come back in time to perform well in the playoffs and had a pretty good showing in the Arizona Fall League too. However, I don't think he's out of the woods just yet. He's well behind Jonathan Villar, and now Nolan Fontana is right on his tail. He spent time at 3B in the Arizona Fall League, which may point to a utility role down the line. He could begin 2013 as the starting shortstop for Corpus Christi, but he'll be in a dogfight with Fontana for that spot. 3. Jack Armstrong, RHP If you thought that me putting Mier on this list was harsh, then putting Armstrong here is blatantly unfair. It probably is. But, here's the thing.... Armstrong, a 3rd-round pick in 2011, is now 23 and he has yet to appear in a professional game. He signed at the 2011 deadline and did not appear in any games (not even instructional league games) that year. He wasn't healthy enough to receive a minor league assignment at the end of the spring last year, and eventually he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. Armstrong's upside is tantalizing, but it's time he gets on the mound to show us what he can do. I don't think he'll be getting the Vince Velasquez treatment, but if he excels in a bullpen role, a jump onto the fast track is possible. 4. Telvin Nash, 1B He's got incredible power. No one denies that. But the problem is his propensity to strike out at an appallingly high rate. He also doesn't appear to be good enough defensively, even at 1st. So his bat will have to carry him through the system. Nash will have to curtail his strikeout rate dramatically, however. Abandoning a laissez-faire attitude towards strikeouts could be a start. He has reported to camp in much better shape, a great sign. What is advantageous to him is that there aren't really any first basemen who can threaten him. 5. Jonathan Meyer, 3B Meyer is only 22, but in a repeat of Lancaster, all he could manage was a slight uptick in his average (from .264 to .272). On the other hand, his triple slash line in 2011 read as .264/.343/.399. Despite the improved average, his 2012 triple slash was .272/.315/.375. Meyer is noted as being a solid defender at 3B, but the questions regarding his bat are still largely unanswered. Failing to put up even a .700 OPS in Lancaster (in a repeat, no less) is a serious red flag.
Great post as usual. I'd rep again if I could. Meyer I don't think will ever be a legitimate prospect. He's organizational filler and he could filter through the system a few more years. He's a lesser version of Erik Castro. I'd probably replace Meyer with Borchering, who will need to prove himself in a second year at AA. A couple guys who aren't necessarily in make/break positions but need strong seasons to continue their prospect status are Villar and Ovando. -Villlar needs a strong push to force his way onto the big league club. There are plenty of mediocre options ahead of him so it shouldn't take much, but he so far hasn't shown much in ST. -Ovando is still young and will still be below the average age as a 19y/o in LoA but he really hasn't had a strong prospect season yet. I'm lookin for him to pull a Santana this year in LoA. Reportedly he still has attitude issues and may be limited to first base. That'd strongly hurt his value.
this.. repped. thanks for the unique and informed perspective For anyone thinking wrt to Nash that "Adam Dunn K's a lot but makes up for it w/power and walks"....Dunn's OBP in the minors was .410 at worst and over .440 his last 2 seasons. Nash had a high of .373 and otherwise significantly lower. In short, he won't ever be one of those types of really good hitters unles he cuts down the K's
One could make the argument that last year was the make-or-break for these guys: I do not agree with your assessment on Jio Mier. His last season earned him some more time in the organization. Of course if Mier has a crash-and-burn season this year, that might change everything. But the same could be said for the guy ahead of him (Villar) and the guy behind him (Fontana).
I think you are right except on Clemens. I think he will get one more make or break year as injuries may have been part of problem last season.
it's pretty crazy...i feel like our tiny little group of 20-30 stros die-hards on here has our own personal stros' beat writer, who kills all of the published stros' writers around the net and fishwraps. i've always passively followed our farms during my fandom, mainly our top prospects, but to be able to follow the landscape of the entire system pretty much daily is pretty f'ing awesome. lucky to have you around here, tellitlikeitis.
ClutchFans has become my site... for Astros news. tellitlikeitis is one of the most in depth and thoughtful Astro writers out there, and I cannot say that enough. I have started and written for a couple different sites, but gems like tellitlikeitis make you realize that some people just have a knack for summarizing and reporting useful stats and information. That being said, Nash is in an interesting year. I just don't see a place for him on this ball club, and I frankly hope that he either gets cut or gets packaged with a trade. This is not because I have anything against Nash, I just don't see a path for him to the majors here and I hope he gets a chance else where.
Completely forgotten about Armstrong, I had high hopes for him. I dont see him as being a starter anymore. Telvin nash...wow as long as he can cut down on the strikeouts he might make it to the big leagues. He has so much power, but strikes out way too much (44% K last year) Poor Jio Mier has been pushed back on the SS list. He went from being the future to being left behind after acquiring Villar, Correa, and (maybe) Fontana
I am definitely looking forward to seeing Ovando. Let's see him show us why he was worth 2.6 million and was compared to the likes of Delgado and Strawberry. Where did you hear he might be limited to first base? That's the first I heard of it
For what it's worth, I don't fully buy Ovando being relegated to 1B yet. I think he'd be moved to left field before that.
I think you are correct juicystream, I think I read something to that effect at Baseball America too. Ovando was the first name that came to mind when I saw this thread. It probably had something to do with me simply expecting too much from him when we first signed him (comparisons to Strawberry and I think maybe even Griffey) didn't help either. That was also when I first started getting more into the minor league players and development, as the big league results dictated that shift. Since then, I've learned to temper my expectations of just all about prospects, and have come to expect fluctuations in their development, as well as resign to the fact that it is very very rare for a prospect to reach their full potential. With all that being said, Ovando is still relatively young, and can still develop into an above-average player hopefully. And count me in on the tellitlikeitis respect, thank you for all of your updates, you're awesome.
Either way, it doesn't really matter. Probably more of a DH than anything right now. Here is a link to the article: http://www.baseballamerica.com/toda...ganization-top-10-prospects/2013/2614633.html
Guys like Nash & Meyer are probably on their last legs as far as staying within the organization. The others are probably facing a change from prospect to organizational depth.
Ariel Ovando is 19 years old and iirc has only played one full season of short season ball. Ovando more likely than not will play next season for Tri-City, the next up minor league club and still short season. I will wait until Ovando is in say AA before pronouncing his MLB position(s) or limitation therein.
