The comical part to me is that there are fans who would prefer 9-11 win seasons, but a 25% playoff win percentage, then actually having a chance to make and win a Super Bowl. I gave you the stats on wild card playoff success. It's not complicated. I gave you the hypothetical, which was losing in the playoffs very early. It's not complicated. An 8-4 team that loses in the first or second round is not impressive. It's a somewhat better than average football team that absolutely no one outside of hardcore sports fans and Texans fans will ever remember. Then there's the fact that long tenured coaches almost never win Super Bowls (Bill Cowher is one of the very few exceptions) - rather they win within their first three years. Different sport, but the Astros basically prove your indignation above to be unfounded and frankly, dumb. There's not a single Astros fan in history who wouldn't trade those 100+ loss years for the WS ring and current run they're on. I think fans that can't see the forest for the trees are the worst kind. The Texans have never made a championship game, which makes them the only franchise with that distinction. Sure, that's only their 17 seasons of existence, not a 30 year championship game drought of the Bengals. But of course, the Oilers last made a conference championship game in 1979... so 17 years before leaving for Tennessee. Professional NFL teams playing football in Houston have gone 34 seasons without making it past the second round, which is your longest streak currently in the NFL. But keep being happy with 8-4 starts that turn into a 25% playoff success rate (that win over the Connor Cook led Raiders was thrilling!) while the head coach via both the eye test and stats continues to prove to be inept at coaching an offense. Hopefully he (BillyO) proves me wrong.
This encompasses much of my thoughts toward this franchise over the last 18 years. After 3 years of inexperienced DCs in 2009, I was ready for them to lose so Kubiak would be fired. They salvaged it by bringing in Wade. The stars aligned in 2011 and part of '12 but injury hit. By the end of '12 we had seen six years of Schaub and I was ready for a true franchise QB (it's extremely difficult to win a SB without this). So yeah, that terrible '13 year really wasn't so bad as it brought hope for change. OB mostly got a pass until last season since it wasn't until then we knew we had a franchise QB. But after an embarrasing playoff performance and his constant timeout miscues, IMO poor decision making in critical moments, etc., it's hard to envision winning a SB with him. Maybe he'll prove us wrong. But either way this should be a deciding year on his long-term status here. Either we take a step forward or he needs to go.
I agree. And the crazy thing is every game will still be a sellout and the lots will be packed with tailgaters. It just amazes me how someone can spend their hard earned money on supporting an organization that is satisfied with being the laughingstock of the NFL.
Yes. I do. Believe me; I get it. So we're all OK calling a team that just went 11-5 mediocre? But I'm the one that doesn't get it.... Yeah, see - that's the thing... there's PLENTY to be hopeful about. But we've all made our minds up about BoB so anything I point to from last year is "yeah but"ted away. How many QBs in the league would you deal Watson for? Mahomes and......? I know there are a slew of *better* QBs - but are you trading 23-year old Watson for 42-year old Tom Brady? Or injury-prone Andrew Luck? To me, if you can't be hopeful about Deshaun Watson... I mean, maybe this isn't your thing? And before you scream about BoB ruining him, Watson is 14-8 as a starter under BoB... that's a 10-win pace. Rip BoB all you want but I think most of us would GLADLY take 10 wins annually. We should maybe think about not taking that so much for granted and letting ourselves enjoy it. They've won 10+ games, what? Three times since 2002?...
The % of winning any single playoff game is 50%. And if the team strings together 10 and 11-win seasons...... that's a bad thing? What does any of this mean? Who gives a flip who remembers what? Which do you think is more likely: the 8-4 Texans being legitimately good or this organization, which hired the guy you desperately want fired, hiring the right person - before Watson burns out - and getting back to at least being 8-4 again?... Fans believe every patch of grass is greener. I'm all for tear-downs, rebuilds, firing, etc. I was in favor of firing BoB. But you need to realize that firing BoB in no way guarantees anything. Do you have *any* concept for how remarkably rare the Astros turnaround was? No? Take a look at... a dozen+ MLB teams trying right now to replicate it. Right. And based on the way you seemingly approach your sports fandom, those Luv Ya Blue Oilers were never going to beat that Steeler dynasty so they would've been better off just not making the playoffs, right?....
The Texans are 1-3 in the playoffs under BillyO. That's a 25% win percentage. The one win came against a team led by Connor Cook. But sure, the 25% in a playoff game this upcoming season is a random estimate and no more right or wrong than your 50%. 50% is also of course wrong. The odds for most playoff games are not 50/50. We know that, because we can actually look at the odds of past playoff games. Oddsmakers aren't always right, but they are more often than not. But beyond that, the hypothetical is a hypothetical. it tells you what will happen. The Texans don't get far in the playoffs. There win % in the payoffs is at best 50% - not their odds to win a game, there actual win % (assuming a first round win, second round loss). So yeah, consistent 10-11 win seasons (mind you I said 9-11... under BillyO, 9 is more likely than anything) are bad IF the end result is always an early playoff exit. That's called stagnation. It means nobody other than folks like you will care about those teams. What was so hard about reading that, lol? I said it as straight-forward as possible. Who cares what's more likely? I gave you the hypothetical. It included early playoff exits. We know the exact outcome of the team in the hypothetical. I'm not sure why you're acting like I said the team is 8-4 and will at least go on to the conference finals vs. a 4-8 team and guaranteed BillyO firing. Cause that's not what I said. It was very clear. Absolutely, I and any fan will prefer deep playoff run, lol. You're arguing a boogeyman. Moreover, it sounds like your argument here is that BillyO might be bad, but he's not horrible, so they shouldn't fire him because then they may actually get someone horrible. Which is effectively exactly the culture of mediocrity that most people on this board, and many fans in general, have grown tired of. You're not tired of it.. understood there. Again, this is the kind of attitude that has created the culture of mediocrity that is the current Texans. It has nothing to do with the fact that the grass might not be 100% absolutely greener on the other side, and in fact might be worse. It has to do with the current grass. We know the current grass sucks. And to continue this analogy, as literally as possible, if your actual grass sucks, and you can afford to try and address it, it sounds like your position would be "nah, it's not that great, but it could be worse". More power to you... I at least try to fix my grass. And somewhat less literal, relevant to this organization, if I try to fix my grass, but do something random and it doesn't work out, you know what... I then try to fix it again while probably leaning on someone else to make the actual fixing decision. But wait... what if I try and fix my grass over and over and end up in a situation where I just have a horrible lawn, worse than it is currently, for years and years??!! That's where we're at already. We're already at 34 years of never having great grass. In 17 years as the Texans, there are 2 playoff wins. Yeah, it's not the WORST on the block, but big picture, our grass isn't that good. Even more though, this is the NFL. A league where its relatively easy to go from absolutely horrible grass, to great grass. So its a rare thing that half the league has thought, that strategy makes sense, let's try that?? It's certainly not rare in the NBA. The Warriors is a result of sucking, then hiring the right executives, making the right draft picks, and adding the right coach. They fired Mark Jackson despite making the playoffs and playing decently well. It hasn't sucked for the 76ers, despite a number of blunders along the way. Seems to be working for the Braves. It worked for the Cubs, who lost 87, 91, 101, 96 and 89 games before winning a WS two years later. For something so rare, it seems to work somewhat more frequently than you make out. Nevermind the fact that I also referenced a better stat. NFL coaches ALMOST NEVER win a SB after being with a team for 5+ years (assuming they didn't already win a SB in the first 5 years). So if we're talking about things that are rare, as of the end of 2017, of the 31 NFL coaches with at least one SB ring, 27 of them came within 5 years of their hiring. I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here. For some reason you keep framing things as (a) make the playoffs but don't win a superbowl vs. (b) be horrible forever. I guess your whole argument comes down to you don't think the Texans front office is capable of doing anything right, and your 100% certain what's on the other side will suck. Which may be right... or may not. But again, is indicative of the culture here. Relative to those Oilers, they hired Bum, he had an up and down first few years, then took them to 2 consecutive conference finals (but got thrashed in both), then lost in the first round, and the team let him go. Are you asking if I would have preferred they fired Bum after his 5-9 second season record? No... that was his second season. Apples vs. Oranges. Or are you asking if I think they did the right thing firing him at the end of the 1980 season? I think so... it was the third year in a row they lost in a thrashing in the playoffs, just this time in the first round. Sure, the immediate years post Bum sucked, but they eventually turned it around - they did not make a conference finals of course, but if we're talking about "good" teams just based on 50%/50% chances of being in the playoffs (your criteria), they certainly got back there. Absent one of the most embarrassing losses you'll ever see in the playoffs, they would have made the conference finals. We can't know what would have happened had Bum not been fired. All I can do is point to stats and data. NFL head coaches don't usually win SBs with a team 5+ years in without success already. Plenty of good and even GREAT coaches, with more success, have been fired. I guess we shouldn't fire BillyO though, because it may get worse, lol...
Please explain to me why the Connor Cook win is discredited but the Hoyer and Osweiler losses aren't? See what I mean about the convenience of fans when it comes to confirming their bias?... Oh, you mean the oddsmakers who had the Texans favored to beat the Colts?... Yes, specific match-ups have corresponding odds. But a hypothetical match-up between two presumably even playoff teams - a month before the season even starts - is 50/50. It is certainly NOT 25% because of playoff results from 2016-2018. That's not how this works. 9 wins annually is problematic. There is nothing wrong with stringing together multiple 10-11 win seasons, however; playoff results be damned. Because who gives a **** what random people remember? Give me 10-win/early exit seasons to enjoy 19 times out of 10 before I'd even consider a 4-win/rebuild season. No. My argument is that BoB isn't as bad as fans like you seem to think. Wasn't it you, maybe in this thread, who called him "horrible," and that it wasn't up for debate? He's had one losing season in five years. We can debate whether that's *good enough* - but to call that "horrible"?........ There it is! The coach of a team that just went 11-5 last season "sucks." Ahhh.. gotcha - so it's just a matter of hiring the right executives, hiring the right coach, and then, let's see... drafting 3 sure-fire Hall of Famers and the greatest player in the game agreeing to play with you? SOUNDS BEYOND EASY! So the 76ers, who haven't been past the second round of the playoffs since before the Texans were a franchise, is the model?..... ....as are the Braves, who haven't won a playoff series since before the Texans were a franchise?..... Wait! So you'd prefer the Texans to go 4-8, fire the coach and then patiently wait (counting: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5...) 6! years before winning a Super Bowl?... THAT SOUNDS AWESOME! F THESE 10 WIN SEASONS TO HELL - GIMME SIX YEARS OF LOSING! You're not very good at this... And, honestly - this is where I stopped reading because what you want, above all else, is for the team to fire BoB. You don't want a nuanced conversation about it and throwing the 76ers up as a model franchise is proof of that. I have NO ISSUE with anyone who thinks BoB hasn't been good enough. My issue is completely rooted in any idea that BoB hasn't been good at all. It's just irrational hyperbole.
I’m good. Arguing with you about the Texans is like arguing with a 5 year old. You’re good with BillyO and slightly above average. Most of the rest of us aren’t. He’ll be fired before he wins a super bowl. I’m happy to place a tip jar wager on that if you like.
Skipping the rest of this conversation, Connor Cook was their 3rd string QB that hadn't played all season. If he was their actual QB, Oakland wouldn't been in the playoffs to lose. Hoyer and Osweiler were our team's #1 QB's. Oakland lost with a QB they never intended to play. The Texans lost with the QB's they specifically built those seasons around and made an effort to acquire as their starting QB. That was Oakland at its worst vs the Texans at their best.
I hate fans that support BoB "winning ways". A coach that can get us consistently to playoffs mean jack sht to me if I know for a fact we are going to get blasted in the ass b/c of his coaching abilities. Example: Mchale, he was able to "coach" his team to playoffs, but guess what they fired him 11 games into the season and replaced him with a better coach. BoB is replaceable and he isn't good for us long term. Sure he got us division champs but he sure isnt going to lead us into the promise land with his coaching abilities. Fans like Hey Now are pretty much content with just making it into playoffs, the rest of us aren't. I am certainly not happy Watson and other Star players talent are being wasted away with mediocre coaching. Regular season and playoffs are two different animals.
You can disagree w him, but he's making his points clearly and in good faith. Maybe you know some rarified 5-yr olds! I'm no fan of BoB, but I begrudge nobody their own hope or happiness.
He thinks EVERY playoff game is a flip of the coin. 5 year olds can make points clearly. Just not always logically.
I think texans is above average, a little higher than mediocre. But being above average in regular season probably means at the bottom in the playoff. There are 12 playoff teams out of 32 teams. Above average is not enough. It's OK to have some aspects right above average, but then we need to have some other aspects to be outstanding, to really have a chance to win it all.
Well, we hear this a lot from some sports folk who are trying to avoid the fact that they keep losing in the playoffs... like Murey.
That’s the type of response he would give as an example. Eg. What about when Vegas has the Texans as favorites last year huh?!?!? Suffice it to say... fine if he REALLY thinks every game is a flip of the coin he wouldn’t be posting on a message board and instead would be on some exotic island or the like (that he owns) because of the millions upon millions he’s made gambling. I’m assuming he isn’t done that... but I guess I could be wrong there. That’s why I have no need to continue with him. Either he really hates easy money or he actually doesn’t truly believe the crap he’s saying... either way, not worth continuing a discussion.
You're welcome to point to the post in which I said this. Here, let me save you some time: I never did. What I did say was that a hypothetical game eight months in the future, in which we don't know anything other than the Texans will be involved, is, essentially, a coin flip. It is certainly not, as you seem to think, 25% because BoB has won 25% of his previous playoff games, therefore he will forever be expected to win 25% of his playoff games. That's not how it works.
