Fantasy Football advice thread [2017-18]

Also I think proposing trades before Week 1 is kind of a dumb thing to do. Your opponents are all overvaluing their rosters because they don't have any performance metrics yet. Wait until some games have started and propose trades when you have leverage to do so.

 

Got a 10 team standard draft tomorrow.

Where are you rating Zeke with his suspension and possible game reduction?

Imo he's the the 1-1 if healthy and no suspension but I can't envision burning a 1 on him. I'm thinking of reaching for him in the 2nd and hope it pays off big down the line similar to Bell last year.

What's everyone's thoughts?

Also, I know you really shouldn't handcuff but what's the opinion of also taking McFadden in the mid rounds if I were able to nab Zeke, as not only insurance but also some possible early season wins.

The Dallas situation seems the only true workhorse and handicap situation in the league that would be worth it, anyone else believe the same?

 

I have a fundamental problem with approaching a draft with one clear goal in mind. The draft is just a fluid marketplace where assets fluctuate in cost constantly. You have to be able to adapt quickly, as with anything else.

My read on the Zeke situation (which is more nuanced than people may understand) is that the NFL is going to push to take a hardline stance against any claims of domestic abuse. There are holes in the accuser's story yes, but the NFL cannot afford to look soft on these issues after the Ray Rice fiasco. I don't see a suspension reduction as a possibility, I see this as kind of an all-or-nothing scenario (Think the Brady saga). However, I do think there is also chance this gets deferred until after the regular season. My gut feeling right now is that Zeke is going to have to serve the 6 game suspension this year. I'm about 65% certain of that, so there is a big margin of error.

So let's assume that is the case (Which is what we have to do when we're drafting at this point). Is it worth it to invest say a 2nd rounder and then a middle rounder on McFadden? Seems like owning a Dallas backfield monopoly isn't a bad idea, but there are a couple problems in this line of thinking. 1.) Dallas doesn't face the quite cupcake schedule they did last year, this means they may in more dogfights which means more passing and less ball-control. 2.) To equate anyone behind that line as a sure thing in fantasy isn't going to be 100% accurate. We don't know if McFadden is going to produce 70% of what Zeke would give you from Weeks 1 - 7. He's aging. He's never been a very good in terms of vision. He does have a history of some injuries. 3.) There is no guarantee another owner won't draft him ahead of you, possibly forcing you to reach higher for him, and again limiting your roster's upside.

The problem is you're investing capital in 2 mutually exclusive players. Zeke is arguably 1.1 yes, but he won't earn a point until Week 8, and the fantasy regular season is over by Week 13. That is only 5 weeks to make a difference. Also, by that time, McFadden becomes worthless again. So you're investing a lot of capital for honestly not a huge return. 2nd round pick + 6th round pick for instance.

So your opportunity cost to monopolize the Dallas backfield is expected to be a 2nd round pick and a 6th round pick. If it will be a late 2nd and a late 6th, based on ADP, let's say Amari Cooper and Ty Montgomery would be available there. Assuming Amari Cooper and Ty Montgomery project in an average range of outcomes, you're probably looking at about production similar to Dallas RB1 with those 2 players combined, and probably moreso. Remember, McFadden and Zeke are mutually exclusive. You'll never be starting them at the same time, so you're really going to invest a 2 and a 6 into what is essentially one player? Yes, its a potential 1.1 player, but its still a HUGE opportunity cost and a risk. You should be looking to minimize risk in the first 5-6 rounds and then maximize upside after that.

Play smarter.

 

Update - Schefter is reporting Zeke could play Week 1 and may have the band reduced a couple games, possibly 4.

If there is a real chance Zeke only misses 4 games, I'd look for him in the 2nd round for sure. Forget about McFadden.

 

Great insight as always moe.

It's not my only strategy and honestly it's just one I'm recently thinking about and was curious on others opinion and draft value he may have.

My real belief all summer long has been to avoid Dallas players. I'm envisioning a step back. Their defense got much worse imo and I think that's going to lead to more passing, especially with Zeke out. So my belief is the roster will be overvalued.

Although, I can still see witten producing every week.

TBH, I think the 2nd is too high for Zeke but I'm also thinking it could be the risk that wins for you in the playoffs.

I likely, play it fairly safe round 1 and 2 (like always) with proven commoditys with low floor and good-high ceilings. I likely won't be able to pass on him if he lasts to the 3rd, especially if I go wr/wr and stock on rbs in the mids.

 

Evan Silva thinks Russell Wilson is going to have an MVP year this season. For what its worth, I like Russ/Baldwin as you can usually get them at great value. Paul Richardson or Tyler Lockett is going to be fantasy relevant this year. Maybe both.

 

Jeez moe, just got an alert that the lead investigator for the NFL recommended no suspension after his investigation. That the players union is sticking hard to this and some other irregularities and such conducted by the NFL and all signs are pointing towards a reduction.

This surely changes things in my mind, especially with the schefter report and I'm starting to think Zeke is worth a 10-15 selection.

Where would you put him on your big board now?

 

This is truly bizarre stuff about the NFL investigator. Elliott may very well be reinstated at this point. Very up in the air but looking a lot better for him after today. I would say treat him like RB3 at this point. Do you know where you are picking?

 

Not until tomorrow.

The NFL is ridiculous.

They are consistently inconsistent at punishments lol.

 

Great great post.

 

Evan Silva just bumped Zeke up to 4th on his Non-PPR rankings.

 

Just joined a last second ppr league with some friends.

Moe who are some players I may not be thinking about?

 

Zeke news will rock many already concluded drafts. In our league he went 2-11 to the guy that also drafted DH 1-2 (Brown went 1st overall). Must be celebrating like its Christmas... though I am OK with passing on him (I ended with OBJ and Gordon anyway) and DAL has a pretty tough schedule this year.

 

The guy in my league drafted 2nd got David Johnson Elliott and Brady. We will see how this pans out. A bit annoying but it's all for fun though. Besides losing the hundreds of dollars part of I don't make the playoffs.

 

LOL, we may be in the same league... the guy in my league also drafted DJ, Zeke, and Brady in order. His WRs aren't all that (Sanders, ARob, Tate, Hogan, Matthews) which may bring him back to the league. I tried to follow Moe's advice and focused on WRs.

 

I would try and land Cooper Kupp, Adam Thielen in the latter rounds. Both should see plenty of targets.

 

Grab Ted Ginn Jr ASAP... Snead 3 game suspension.

Hoping this helps my Coby Fleener desperation grab...

 

im 5th pick who should be my target Odell or Mike Evans

 

Both very good. I'd still say OBJ, and maybe Green before Evans.

 

Use positive correlations too people.

If you think AJ Green is going to be the MVP of your team, then get Andy Dalton too. They're married.

Also, a little less duh and more analytics, your RB is facing a team and they are pretty big favorites, stream your RB's defense and that is also a positive correlation stack.