Im getting offered Antonio Brown for Adrian Peterson, Im receiving A. Brown, should I say yes, maybe im overthinking this.
in a non-PPR, it's close enough IMO that it would warrant considering the rest of your roster and if you have the WR depth to handle that (and/or need the RB due to lack of RB depth) if it's a PPR, you make the deal and figure out the other stuff later
Take this. There's a similar trade going down in my league except it's AB for AP + Flash Gordon. Think you'll be on the better end of the deal here.
Interesting... trades are already happening? And someone is offering the highest rated WR, heck, highest rated player, for a 31 year old RB? What am I missing here (some secret report on knee issues? failed drug test? Big Ben retiring?).
I have Green Bays defense. I am being offered Arizona if I give up Travis Benjamin. He is my best bench WR. What do you think?
AJ Green and Rawls side win. Hands down. Not exactly high on Freeman this year and Landry is good, but not a top tier guy like Green is.
Freeman is undervalued IMO. People are overreacting to his poor finish to the season. He's still got Top 5 PPR finish written all over him.
I'd say you mismanaged your draft pretty badly then. With a 3WR roster I'd have at least 6 WRs on my roster and 2 out of 3 should be at least startable.
Really? On a 12 team league with 3 WR, 2RB, TE, and WRT? If you do that, you're pretty much guaranteed a pretty bad RB Corp.
Regardless of your bench and the discussion above, I think it's silly to give up a remotely useful player in a defense trade. Defenses are subject to too much randomness week-to-week to do it. I'd rather stream defenses (if my drafted D performs poorly) than make a move like that.
I had planned on "streaming" defenses until this guy brought up the trade. Even though I drafted him, I have a suspicion Benjamin's numbers are going to drop drastically from a year ago. The projected points ( I know they are pretty inaccurate) are actually more for AZs defense. At first I was like "No way!" Then I started thinking "well maybe" lol. That's the only reason I brought it up here for someone to stop me from doing something stupid.
Not true at all. You're making a mistake of panicking if you don't have 2 supposed studs at RB. This is dated thinking. The RB position's volatility pretty much guarantees 2 of your 4 RBs will be busts due to suckiness or injury. WR presents less risk and more consistent production. The panic sets in when you don't see a clear-cut "workhorse" RB in the middle rounds. That is because the workhorse RB is dying. RB value as a whole is evolving. The committee is the new workhorse. The RBs are role players. In standard leagues you target your Chris Ivories and LaGarrette Blounts because they are TD dependent. In PPR leagues you target your Gio Bernards and Danny Woodheads because you know they'll see a lot of high-percentage targets. Having a strong WR base minimizes your risk. To accomplish depth you have to have a clear understanding of how to value positions. You may have to dedicate 10 or your first 12 picks to WR/RB. Depth is crucial. Even if you have 3 studs at WR, if you don't have a couple of decent options behind them, you will be a mess quickly if somebody goes down. Picking TE2s and backup QBs in rounds where other teams are stacking up on depth is what will kill you. Don't waste picks on backup QB/TE until the very last rounds, if at all. Their value above waiver player is going to be marginal at best. Fantasy football is an exercise in risk management and exploiting undervalued commodities. In a 12 team draft, I'm probably looking to go WR-WR-WR-RB-RB-RB-WR-RB or similar but it depends on what position I'm in.
moe just curious if your strategy changes because it sounds similar in many areas to me, but in a 10 team standard draft do you still build your team around someone like a AJ green if one of the elite rbs (gurley/miller) is still up there?
I think unless you are in a standard league, and an absolute surefire workhorse falls to you; you should look towards the zero-Rb strategy or at least something close in terms of philosophy. Even then you run the risk of injury and losing a top pick. This is true for wr also, but not as high of a probability. I landed Gurley in my big money league in the first round and since its standard league rules (and him being the only safe workhorse IMO; not withstanding injury) I couldn't pass him up. But I immediately followed that up with wr, wr, rb, wr, rb, wr. I think its a must that 2 out of your top 3 picks be used on stud WRs.
By round 6, the best receiver I could get was Allen Hurns. With that pick I had gone WR and RB all the way. And one of the backs was an auto pick due to technical difficulties - L Murray in round 5. There are a lot of red flag receivers like E Sanders (QB) and Larry Fitzgerald (age) that I wasn't going to pick in the first 7 rounds. I wasnt even looking at other positions (hopeful about Tyrod Taylor and M Bennett) I also have Kevin White on my bench who might be a good fantasy player or not. There just aren't a lot of receivers that are close to locks anymore.
The smartest fantasy minds usually have at least 7 WRs ranked in their overall top 10. The top minds understand the WR position offers the safest floor. I'm taking AJ Green over Zeke Elliott all day. I'm taking Allen Robinson and Keenan Allen before Jamaal Charles and Mark Ingram. The only RBs I even like that high are David Johnson, Gurley, Freeman, and LeSean McCoy. Freeman is probably the only one I would consider drafting in the 3rd over a WR because I like his floor, especially in a PPR. I will also not hesitate to get LeSean McCoy in the 4th round if it's between him and a riskier WR like Jordy Nelson. Risk becomes minimal as the draft progresses. I'll pick Corey Coleman or Will Fuller toward the end. Rookie receivers and relatively unknown WRs are better risk/reward picks at the end of drafts rather than established veterans, you can also find handcuff RBs who would inherit bulk carries should the starter go down. The problem is most of them would instead move into a timeshare should that happen. Gio Bernard is not a sexy pick, but he is actually a high upside pick. He is more of a receiving back by role, but he will also see carries. If Jeremy Hill gets hurt or is ineffective, Bernard assumes the lead role. Look for these types of backs in the middle rounds. Duke Johnson and Charles Sims are similar players. They have a designated role within the offense which gives them a decent floor in a PPR format, but injuries or ineffectiveness by incumbent starters provide them with more opportunity. Conversely, drafting guys like Theo Riddick, Chris Thompson, Darren Sproles really provides very little upside. Yes, they do offer a floor as 3rd down backs in games where they are expected to lose, but they also have no ability to really carry the load should the lead back go down. Even if the lead back does get injured, those guys are still designated 3rd down WRs masquerading as RBs. Danny Woodhead is a different case. He isn't likely to provide upside, but his floor can be so consistent that he is definitely draftable in a PPR. He will get some rushing attempts, but if you're starting him it is usually out of desperation. Leveraging game flow is the way to approach matchups. If the Chargers are 11 point underdogs, Woodhead is probably going to catch 6+ passes. He may even score, but he is still limited by the designation of his role within the offense. This is what we call negative and positive expected value players and it is important to know the difference.
