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Fantasy football advice thread [2016-17]

Discussion in 'Fantasy Sports' started by BigMaloe, Aug 29, 2016.

  1. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    I guess I'll get this started for this year. What's everyone imploring on their draft strategies this year? I've noticed a lot of people acquiring 2 high end wrs and trying to do rb by committee in the later rounds.

    Am I behind in times to still think grabbing one of the few actual workhorse rbs (Hurley, Elliot, Johnson, ap) is of the best value in the 1st rd?
     
  2. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    If you get value out of that RB you're fine, but the idea is to play it safe and invest in guaranteed production. RB bust rate is high, has always been high.
     
  3. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Wr can bust just as well as rb but maybe not I guess. I just find you can get better valued wr late compared to rb late. I understand when its ppr but I feel like this is just a passing trend, similar to how taking qbs high was a slight trend for a while.
     
  4. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Season long fantasy is really all about low variance i.e. minimizing risk vs identifying undervalued talent. RB bust/injury rate is higher than WR bust/injury rate. Last season was historically bad for early-round RBs.

    While you are correct in assuming the WR position has a lot of depth and you can still find production in later rounds, also keep in mind that high-end production is harder to find later with WRs than it is with RBs because RBs rely heavily on opportunity (carries) whereas WRs rely on targets.

    In this system we find WR production more steady and predictable. If drafting a player like Michael Crabtree for instance, you are drafting to minimize risk rather than exploit under-valuation. Crabtree is a low ceiling / high floor type player. He is likely to produce but not likely to be a high-end producer long-term.

    Whereas in the same round you may choose to draft a player like Corey Coleman in which you are targeting undervalued over lower-risk. Coleman is an unknown so his value is based purely on speculation, making him a higher risk but a higher reward. Crabtree's expected outcome has lower variance. His expected range of outcomes would fall between 65-85 catches, 800-1100 yards and 5-9 TDs.

    Coleman on the other hand is high variance. He could emerge as a true #1 or he could totally suck.

    A smart drafter will identify when to take risks and when to minimize risks. A good draft has a mix of both.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    Good WR's all get drafted for the most part. Langford, Rawls, D. Johnson, J. Allen, even Freeman where common backs on playoff teams that came off the wire.
     
  6. Plowman

    Plowman Contributing Member

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    RB is a position to be stockpiled, as a higher % of touches/scoring opportunities come their way (and expendable high trade value if things fall right)...You have to nail down that position. Actually, RB's can be some of the safest pocks on the board if you know what you're doing. Yes, even then, injuries will happen...ergo..stockpile.
     
    #6 Plowman, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
  7. fallenphoenix

    fallenphoenix Contributing Member

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    Anyone care to evaluate my team? 12 team, standard scoring

    QB: Big Ben
    RB: Langford
    RB: Crowell
    WR: AJ Green
    WR: B. Marshall
    TE: Greg Olsen
    Flex: Brandin Cooks
    D: Cardinals
    K: Vinateri

    Bench:
    Blake Bortles
    James Starks
    Charcandrick West
    Matt Jones
    Kamar Aiken

    I know I'm not that strong at the RB position, but I'm banking on picking someone who emerges or having Lacy or Charles go down.
     
  8. The Stig

    The Stig Member

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    @Fallenphoenix

    Team looks to be a hit or miss depending on how injuries go this season IMO. I like Langford, as I think he might become the bellcow for the Bears this season. I'm not entirely sold on AJ Green due to his inconsistency last season but they did lose a lot of wideouts and Eifert is gone at the moment so maybe it'll pan out. I'm liking NO to have a boost in offensive stats due to their harder schedule and Brees requiring to throw the ball more. Hold that O-line holds up though, because that's a big question mark. Probably give you a B overall as I think it's decent for a 12 man league.
     
  9. The Stig

    The Stig Member

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    Would someone rate my team? I don't think I had a good draft due to my risky picks and lack of experience but will let y'all decide.

    Yahoo!/Snake/Standard/10 Teams/3rd pick

    QB:Drew Brees
    RB1: Todd Gurley
    RB2: Thomas Rawls
    WR1: Mike Evans
    WR2: Alshon Jeffrey
    TE: Julius Thomas
    Flex: Eric Decker
    D/ST: Oakland
    K: Roberto Aguaryo

    BN: Ryan Mathews, Devante Parker, Michael Crabtree, Duke Johnson, Tyler Eifert, Willie Snead
     
  10. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    I'm investing in AJ Green this year and I think he will outperform DeAndre Hopkins simply out of necessity. The Bengals are losing a ton of targets by the departure of Marvin Jones and Sanu. Eifert will probably miss the first 6 weeks of the season at minimum.

    Meanwhile the Texans invested a first and third round pick at WR to put next to Hopkins and both will be involved in the passing game, so I expect Hopkins targets to decrease. Also Lamar Miller should be receiving some check-down targets as well.

    I think Green is primed to enter the Julio/Brown/Hopkins 2015 realm of being force-fed targets. The Bengals will attempt to run the ball more than throw, and they do have a pretty respectable defense, so I'm not expecting a huge explosion from Green, but I do think he will rise enough to justify a top 5 selection.
     
  11. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Not a bad squad by any means. A lot of good pieces. TE is a bit weak but you can overcome that if Thomas manages to be decent in the first few games of the season.

    Evans/Jeffrey/Decker is a solid WR corps.

    The only real issue I see here is RB concerns. Your top 3 backs all have injury histories. Duke Johnson is more preferable in a PPR. Crabtree and Snead are low ceiling whereas Parker could still break-out but is currently the #3 in Miami.

    Your RBs make me nervous though. I think if I were in your position I would have invested another pick in a 5th RB rather than a 6th WR.

    I'd drop Willie Snead and find an RB off the waiver wire. DeAndre Washington and Charles Sims are probably both available on your wire. They are basically Duke Johnson / Danny Woodhead / Theo Riddick types right now. They'll be in on third downs to catch passes.

    The difference is both of them would be in line to receive bulk carriers if the starters get hurt.
     
    #11 moestavern19, Aug 29, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2016
  12. CJLarson

    CJLarson Member

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    Gurley or Elliott y'all?
     
  13. marky :)

    marky :) Member
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    I was iffy selecting AJ Green but if Moe has him on his list that's good enough for me lol. :grin:

    Was my 1st round pick at 8th pick. 12man PPR league.
     
  14. thething

    thething Contributing Member

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    This is my team. 12 team ppr. What do you guys think about the Jacksonville running situation? I got both guys since I don't know how it would shake out, but I'm wondering if I would be better off with neither. They are supposed to be running the ball more, but will they really? I got Deangelo as a stopgap for 3 weeks till I can figure it out. Tajae Sharpe, Tyler Gaffney, Deandre Washington, and Steve Smith are sitting on the waiver wire.

    QB:Tom Brady
    RB1: Jamaal Charles
    RB2: Deangelo Williams
    WR1: Demaryius Thomas
    WR2: Jarvis Landry
    TE: Rob Gronkowski
    Flex: Jeremy Maclin
    D/ST: Packers
    K: Catanzaro

    BN: Eli Manning, Chris Ivory, Vincent Jackson, Corey Coleman, James White, TJ Yeldon
     
  15. thething

    thething Contributing Member

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    Can't go wrong with either. Most people say Gurley but Elliott might be less of an injury risk. They are both going to put up monster stats.
     
  16. The Stig

    The Stig Member

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    Everyone except Theo Riddick has been taken by one person in my league :eek: what the hell. I'll look into Theo, but I'm thinking about taking Christine Michael to handcuff Rawls in case he loses his job.
     
  17. thething

    thething Contributing Member

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    Absolutely take Michael. Michael would be a consideration to take even if you didn't have Rawls. He's been that impressive and he should get some carries in the offense. With Riddick you kind of know what you are going to get--he's a high floor, low ceiling type of player.
     
  18. Ziggy

    Ziggy Tastemaker
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    Gurley looked special despite a **** QB. Rookies are an unknown + no Romo.
     
  19. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    I don't think Riddick should be rostered in a 10 team standard league. He simply is incapable of running the ball which basically means he's an RB who is akin to a low-end WR4 with a high floor / low ceiling. The ceiling is just too low. Unless you are completely desperate there will be better options.

    Christine Michael and DeVontae Booker are lottery tickets I'd also be looking to stash.

    I would absolutely take Gurley over Elliott right now. Give me an RB who has already proven he's a stud over a rookie RB any day. No matter how hyped he is. I can't spend a first round pick on Elliott. That is assuming right off the bat he's going to live up to the hype. I don't like that kind of risk with my most important pick.
     
  20. CJLarson

    CJLarson Member

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    Next question, who wins:

    Team A gets:
    Gurley
    Kirk Cousins
    Greg Olsen
    Golden Tate

    Team B gets:
    Elliott
    Andrew Luck
    Gronk
    Mike Evans
     
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