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Electricity will be expensive this summer in Texas

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by JuanValdez, Jun 1, 2018.

  1. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    This is just a public service announcement while I'm thinking about it. If anyone was paying attention, Luminant closed a few big coal plants in Texas a few months ago. Luminant has been totally underwater on their power plants and in bankruptcy. With no hope of coal recovering, they shuttered these plants. With them gone, generation capacity will actually be rather tight this summer. Forward prices for June-August are already up considerably. ERCOT says we can skate by, but it's not impossible that we have rolling brown outs on the hottest days.

    So, what you need to do:

    1. If you are on a variable rate contract, go sign up for some fixed-price contract right now. Not only are they cheaper and have more certainty, but when companies become distressed they will start pulling the lever on the variable customers hard. During the polar vortex in the northeast in 2014, companies going out of business were charging their variable customers 30+ cents a kwh because they could, and because bad press doesn't matter to you when you're bankrupt. So get a fixed rate. You can probably get a lower rate by having a longer contract because you'll dilute these coming summer months with a bunch of cheaper off-peak months.

    2. When you're signing up, watch out for gimmicky offers, especially on powertochoose.com. At that site, the game retailers play is to engineer the pricing schedule to be cheap is you use 1,000 or 2,000 kwhs, but expensive if you use 1,001 or 1,999. There are also honest offers though, you just need to read and understand what ones are a trick. I would actually refer you instead to CenterPoint's shopping site, mytruecost.com, make a login and give your ESIID. They'll do the math of what an offer would cost you given last year's usage.

    2. This might not be the right season for signing with a small retailer marketing a cheap price. One or two retailers have already gone out of business before the high prices have even hit. When your supplier goes out of business, your account is automatically switched to someone else, one of the big suppliers. So you'll be doing business with someone you never chose (until you switch).

    3. It is probably a good year to sign up for your retailer's demand response program. Demand response is when the retailer sends you a message saying 'power will be expensive tomorrow between 4 and 6 pm. Reduce your consumption at that time and we'll pay you.' It won't make you rich, but they'll pay you a few bucks and you'll be helping the grid avoid those rolling brown-outs. Generally, the big guys all have a program like this. Incidentally, they also tend to be better at giving you good insights on their web portals. If you're trying to manage your costs, the big companies are better at giving you the information to help.
     
  2. Buck Turgidson

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    Since you're incredibly knowledgeable about the industry, what do you know/think about the Pedernales Elec. Co-op? Or the Central Texas Co-ops in general, but specifically that one.
     
  3. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

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    I'm at 10.1 cents right now, best I could find on powertochose was 8.8 cents. Based on our usage that's like $18-25 per month. Someone tell me it's worth the effort and the contract to change plans or it's not worth it?
     
  4. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Strange sidebar. The only ones I know much about are the municipals, Austin and CPS. All I know specifically about Pedernales is that it's bigger than you would think. About co-ops and munis more generally I would say (1) my advice above doesn't apply, (2) they look cheaper by subsidizing residential customers with commercial customers in a way that competitive markets would not let them get away with, and (3) they tend to have operational fat. The Baker Institute published a study that tested Texas' competitive market and it's regulated utilities against an economic ideal and they find that the competitive market has been able to reduce prices by becoming more efficient over time, while the monopolies became somewhat less efficient over time: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/medi...ent/7d32313b/CES-pub-TXElectricity-060717.pdf.

    If you're 10.1 cents is on a fixed contract then there is probably a cancellation fee for stopping early. I'd just wait for that to run out. If it has run out or you are otherwise on a variable contract, yes you want to get on a contract.
     
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  5. Buck Turgidson

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    Hell, you started it.

    Just pulled the last bill, and we're paying .10018 once you factor in all the fees (minus the "service availability charge" of $21/mo on each of the meter drops). There's also a credit called a "power cost adjustment" of .014/kwh on each bill, no idea what that is.

    I guess what I was getting at was how do you think, since we get a ton of our stuff from the dams, prices will be affected if any? It's one industry I admittedly do not know squat about.

    Oh, and as far as "operational fat" goes, there's been a revolt by PEC customers over the past 8 years or so, cleaning out all of the good ol' boys who used it as a personal piggybank. I think a couple of them got convicted in court. It's been interesting to follow in the papers.
     
  6. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I don't know their situation on generation. They might have so much they sell surplus in the wholesale market, in which case you're fine. Otherwise, and more likely, they buy from the wholesale market for peak periods. And, in any case, they're still in ERCOT so still at risk of brown-outs along with everyone else. As for the costs though, you won't see run-ups like you do in the competitive market. Utility prices are not determined by market forces, but by long-term average costs. So, long after the summer heat is over, you might get a "power cost adjustment" rider on your bill to finally settle up the additional costs they incurred for you. They'll time it for the lower usage months so you don't get as much bill shock. But you will eventually pay for it sooner or later.
     
    Buck Turgidson likes this.
  7. CCity Zero

    CCity Zero Member

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    I'm at 5.8 cents.. .fixed, somehow in Round Rock it's deregulated so I just switch every 6months to 2 years .. .I got tired of paying attn to doing it so I have some company that does it for me, best $10 a month ever.. https://www.energyogre.com if you have deregulated or whatever it's called highly worth it so your don't get stuck with 12-14cents after contract is up.

    My energy bills used to run 2-350+ now like 1-165, even with running ac at 68.
     
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  8. Uprising

    Uprising Contributing Member

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  9. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    I have infinite energy. The seem pretty good so far
    I need to look into locking them in long term

    Rocket River
     
  10. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    Is that enough panels to power the whole household?
     
  11. Exiled

    Exiled Member

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    to power a single Walmart 5000 btu A/C you need at least 36 of (100watt panel), 2x1200 amp batteries, a no. of MPPT controllers, HD inverter , a 5 hours of peak sun and a ladder
     
  12. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I wouldn't think so. I had a guy come and do an estimate for my house and what he could fit would cover only about 50% of my load.
     
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  13. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    It's so strange to me that Child Protective Services is a major energy provider in Texas.
     
  14. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Can't let all that untapped potential go to waste.
     
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  15. Buck Turgidson

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    Think of all the bicycles they can peddle, and generators those can turn....
     
  16. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    So . . .with gas prices dropping . . .should I expect electricity to follow?

    Rocket River
     
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  17. Surfguy

    Surfguy Contributing Member

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    Why do companies tend to charge more for under 1000 KWh usage and always seem to charge lowest for 1,000 - 1,999 KWh usage? I have been striving to hit the sweet spot of just over 1,000 and have been successful in the winter but I really have to use more energy than I otherwise would. I guess that is part of the scam in getting you to pay more on average. In a logical world, less energy used should mean less cost. But, if I hit 999, then I would pay around $145 versus $80 if I hit 1000. It’s not fair and should be illegal imo.
     
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  18. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    it makes it very hard to compare plans when you have all these tricks... i just stick to fixed rate plans with no min usage fee and without tiered pricing... i guess such tired / min usage plans might work for someone if they know exactly where their power usage will be and is consistent going forward
     
  19. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    seems we are at historic low @ 1.65? The last recent low was around $1.77 in 2015. I recall 2015 electric rates were around 4c per kWh for consumer. Looks like current rate is around 5.3c. These are energy charge and doesn't include TDSP. I waited for it to drop but it has dropped only .05 c in the last month. Hou area.
     
  20. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    yea. .. my reup is in july
    they offering a rise of about a cent

    Rocket River
     

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