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Do you trust McHugh as a starter?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Biggio Was His Name-O, Feb 27, 2019.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    My point is that only 0 33% of pitching staffs have been better than the 2018 A
    Returning everyone would still likely yield a substantially worse performance. Outside of having best staff ever assembled, 2019 pitching staff likely will be substantially worse than last years.

    If Whitley pitches like an ace....
     
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  2. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    Again, they're all good replacements. Very good replacements even. Replacing excellent with good might be more problematic than we are expecting. I also agree with you that the ceiling on James and Whitley could exceed who they are replacing in the rotation.

    But a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush:
    1- I won't bet on McHugh exceeding LMJ's 2018 season, especially without being a starter for 2 seasons.

    2- I'm not sure how you can say that Miley/Whitley vs. Dallas is a push. We have no idea what Whitley can do at the major league level. Lucas Giolito was just the latest in a litany of "#1 prospect(s) in baseball" that looked terrible in his first extended run with the big club. And Miley pitched 80 innings of National League ball last year and was consistently terrible and/or injured for about 5 seasons prior.

    3- James/Valdez/Peacock to me = ?, ?, and half a ?. They're each eminently capable of being awesome but we don't have a ton of data yet that they're great starting pitchers.

    I do believe one of the young arms will blossom. I do believe in Colin McHugh and Brad Peacock as viable rotation pieces after being in the pen for a while. Would I place a bet on it? No way...
     
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  3. ktex

    ktex Member

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    I just feel we've weakened both the starting rotation and the bp by moving him. :(
     
  4. Buck Turgidson

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    Never said it was bad. I was responding to Peacock needing an inning to get warm, which wasn't the case in '17 but was at times out of the pen last year.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    Last year, Peacock likely just had a little bad luck with the homers. Peacock was hilariously bad in the clutch last season, but overall had a good year. Biggest thing for him is getting his slider back. He can plow through decently without it, but his chance to be good, great is drastically better with it.
     
  6. Biggio Was His Name-O

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    Just in McHugh skipping start with sore back. So much for a workhorse...
     
  7. Buck Turgidson

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    Yep, I said it often last year, his slider needs to be the good Peacock slider. None of that frisbee bullshit.
     
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  8. edwardc

    edwardc Member

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    After his outing today no not at all do i trust in him to be a starter.
     
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  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Yeah.... I don't think those homers were bad luck. He didn't have command of his slider..... it went from HOF caliber to Beer league. If he gets the command and feel back, we need to ride him like a crippled mule.
     
  10. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I don't expect McHugh to make a playoff start so I'm not concerned.

    Verlander
    Cole
    Whitley/James/ trade
    Miley
     
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Contributing Member
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    Regardless of Peacock having issues with his slider, batters weren't hitting him harder in 2018 than 2017. Peacock's homer to fly ball rate was incredibly high. Of the 13 balls hit over the outfielders, 11 of them were homers. Peacock's average homer distance was very low. Batters are much more responsible for homers that went just enough versus warning track power.
     
  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I understand and he may make adjustments, but I don't believe his home run rate increase is all a matter of luck. I watched 150+ games last year and he didn't have command of the slider like he did in the past.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    You can't elevate a sharp slider below your ankles, and if you don't have to worry about the slider in the dirt a 95mph fastball looks a whole lot better to a hitter.

    Per fangraphs, his Runs-Above-Average on his slider went from 11.5 in '17 to -1 in '18 (he pitched half as many innings, but still). His HR/FB rate last season was a quite high (18%), but not egregiously out of line with every other year except '17, when it was a bit more than half of his career average excluding that year.

    He also pretty much abandoned his changeup out of the pen last year, and LHB just absolutely tee'd off on him. I'd like to think he's working on bringing that back into play this season.

    They need some semblance of '17 starter Peacock back. Bigly. An average year for starter McHugh would be good too.
     
    #53 Buck Turgidson, Mar 14, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
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  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Great post.

    He just never seemed comfortable for a large part of last year.
     
  15. Marteen

    Marteen Member
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    I think some people looked at his 2015 season thinking he was 19 wins good when he also had run support, he was 10th among starting pitchers. He’s fine as a 4th/5th starter, but I’m not very confident from what I’ve seen lately.
     
  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Even though I agree with you that McHugh’s a fine #4, I feel like pointing this out: since 2014 McHugh is 33rd among all mlb pitchers in fWAR. Better than tons of established starting pitchers like Sonny Gray, Mike Leake, Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, Ervin Santana, Danny Salazar. Hell hes put up more total value than McCullers. He will be fine in the rotation. Houston’s very likely gonna have to go get a “Playoff #3”, but Miley/McHugh/Peacock/Whitley/James/etc will be more than fine to help them win the division and hold things together until reinforcements arrive.
     
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  17. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Dallas Keuchel needs a job.
     
  18. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    Making snap judgments using Spring Training results is silly (Kyle Tucker last year is a perfect example).

    Pitchers use their outings to work out the kinks and try new things, whether it’s pitch sequencing, a new pitch, etc. If McHugh struggles after March 28 rolls around, then it’s time to worry, but he has a long track record of success as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with the Astros and had an outstanding season in relief last year.
     
    #58 DVauthrin, Mar 14, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
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  19. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    This. Especially given he's adjusting to being a starter again, who knows what he may be working on.
     
  20. edwardc

    edwardc Member

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    Yes hr does and would fit right in with this group.
     
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