Giles' first 10 innings as an Astro (10 ER; 4 HR; 2.00 WHIP; 6.80 FIP) were atrocious. But in the 110 innings since: 2.95 ERA; 2.35 FIP; 163 Ks in 110 IP; 1.10 WHIP. WHIP is a little high and he's had a few bad outings here and there; but the overwhelming majority of his Astro career has been excellent. And since the All-Star break - prior to his meltdown this weekend - he'd been flat-out the best relief pitcher in baseball: 1.21 FIP; .67 WHIP; 36 Ks in 22.1 IP.
What I am asking some to concede is that some fans are not going to completely overlook the bad stretches of play. I am in no way disagreeing that he has been great this year, or for long stretches last year. When closers have "atrocious" stretches (to use your words), those things don't go away. The doubters will have concerns until he is nails in the playoffs. (It didn't help that stoned giles showed up a couple of days ago.) If people want to keep arguing in circles that's fine, I guess. But we all see he has gotten better, and he'll have a chance to completely end the discussion in a few weeks. Go Astros.
Even when the good far outweighs it? While he hasn't been consistently elite since he got here, this most recent stretch was certainly elite and longer than any bad stretch he's ever had. So why are the bad stretches more valid? What I'll concede is that fans, generally, are prone to remember the bad stretches with much greater clarity than the good ones and are thus completely irrational. Even if he pitches in the postseason like he has since the ASB, the trust he's supposedly garner will end the moment he has a bad outing.
Atrocious stretches, (specifically meltdowns, or stretches of horrendous command) no matter how small, or spaced out within a career, are derogatory marks which cannot be forgotten unless the player in question performs close to flawlessly in a playoff type situation. I agree that it is irrational for fans to be certain of Giles' futility at this point. However, I don't think it's irrational to have concerns that Giles' demons could return when the leverage is at its highest. That said, Giles has earned the right to be "the guy" for this playoff run, and I don't think the doubters should argue otherwise. I would be the first to applaud Giles for a beastly playoff run. My trust level has steadily risen over the course of the year. I think most, if not all, of the "rational doubters" would agree with me.
If you leave in all the crappy performances, he's been fantastic. 2.52 career ERA with peripherals that show that is likely close to his true talent level. His 2017 numbers (ERA, FIP, xFIP) are within 11% of his career numbers. Only way to make him look bad is to omit good stretches of performance.
Exactly. His by far worst stretch was those first 10 appearances. They happened, and likely created a lasting impression - but they are easy to extract, as well as minimize. But note - nowhere did I say If you just omit his crappy performances, he's been fantastic.
The only way to make him look bad is to point out that he can't control his fastball and really can't get outs with it. He's entirely dependent on his slider to get outs. He has no idea where that fastball is going. You guys want to rattle off his regular season stats like closing out the Twins in June is somehow relative to closing out playoff teams in October. It's not. You're setting yourselves up for an incredible disappointment just like the Gregerson defenders a few years ago.
Seems like you were heavily influenced by his first 10 appearences. As of this recent stretch, he was using the slider as the "get over pitch", while retiring or striking guys out with the fastball. He's developed a much more sound approach to batters this year, rather than when he was simply throwing the ball as hard as he could with the Phillies. He's still not the best closer in baseball... but he's shown enough improvement this year that anybody who thinks he's incapable of getting there is probably always going to have that sort of negative predisposition. But, it sounds like you've already written him off for October... seems like you may be setting yoruself up for a dissapointment.
So, I spend the entire trade deadline... and then some... chastising this front office/ownership group, and I'm a homer? You bring up posts from 2 years ago, when Gregerson was an elite relief pitcher... to try and make some sort of point? Did you not read any of my Gregerson rants from last season? Apparently not. Do we need to re-visit you pining for Vince Velazquez, as you were convinced Luhnow and co traded away a future ace? Funny how you're still probably convinced that this is true.... while most will acknowledge when they've been decidedly proven wrong. Do you actually want to discuss any of what I said, or do you remain jaded by Giles' initial stint as an Astro? Not even sure why I'm asking...
Yes, I brought up that thing where nobody had any confidence in Gregerson while you repeatedly said he was an elite closer. Sound daimiliar, Nick? Pining? Really? Grow up. I could actually go on with your homerish nonsense all night but unlike you, I have better things to do.
Gregerson from 2013-2016 never posted a WHIP above 1.01, or a BAA above .220 in any given year. He wasn't an elite K guy (and ironically has raised it last year and this year while being shelled), but he absolutely was an elite reliever, regardless of whether any poster didn't "feel" like it.
In 2015? Yes, and he had a pretty damn good year. I also said he was an elite relief pitcher, who didn't completely fall flat when made a closer... the quote you happily posted above. Never said he was an elite closer. And certainly never repeatedly said so. And in 2016, I was all for Giles taking the job from him. Please tell me exactly where the "homer" and inaccuracy comes into play here? Yeah, pining... as others mentioned how you orgasmly used to post whenever he had a good start. At one point, you suggested a VV with Appel as closer combo would be better than Giles. Funny how you like searching for 2 year old posts of others, but will ignore your own drivel. (And it is quite embarassing, for you, that a simple CometsWin VV search brings up scores o Doubtful... but go ahead. Maybe some more posts from 2015? Or 2004? I'm not the imbecile who honestly believes that Giles isn't getting anybody out with the fastball... as he retires Mike Trout with one... and it also sounds foolish when you criticize him for having an elite out pitch like a slider. "Billy Wagner is dependent on his fastball"... "Brad Lidge is dependent on his slider." "Trever Hoffman is dependent on his changeup." "Mariano Rivera Is dependent on his cutter" It's like since you don't have a VV stat line to post anymore, you have no idea what you're typing.
Actually, it is. Batters don't just magically get better in October. They get out on the same pitches they got out on for the rest of their careers.
