ESPN: QB Tiers revisited: Risers, fallers and question marks The rest: Spoiler: Rest of this article Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals 2018 Tier: 3 Projected 2019 Tier: 3 Two of the five voters moved up Dalton one tier. One of those voters elevated him into the second. The other moved him from the fourth into the third. There has been no fundamental shift in how coaches and evaluators view Dalton, however. Voters either think he belongs in the lower second or upper third tier as a quarterback who produces at a second-tier level when the supporting cast around him is strong enough. "They have lost games because of their defense, not because of him," one voter said before the Bengals’ 51-14 defeat Sunday. "He is seeing things, trusting and delivering it pretty accurately. Now we are in November, and the weather is going to change. If he finishes as a two, they will go to the playoffs. If he reverts to a three, they will not." FALLERS Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2018 Tier: 3 Projected 2019 Tier: 3-4 All five voters dropped Winston into the fourth tier, which means they see him as someone best suited as a backup. The Buccaneers agreed when they benched Winston. "He loves to throw it to the other team," one voter said. "That doesn’t work in this league at any level. He is obviously frustrating his head coach." Winston’s 10 interceptions on 148 attempts this season equates to a 6.8 interception rate. That is the highest single-season rate for a player with at least 148 attempts since Gus Frerotte had 12 picks on 167 attempts (7.2 percent) in 2007. "From the crab-legs incident in college to the Uber incident in the NFL, can he come back from that?" another voter said. "He should sign with someone like Kansas City. Come be Mahomes’ backup and see if Andy Reid can revive him and then trade him for a pick." Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys 2018 Tier: 3 Projected 2019 Tier: 3 Three of the five voters dropped Prescott by one tier, but their new votes produced an average basically in line with the average for the full contingent of 50 voters this past summer. "He is playing like a four," one of the voters said. "I’ve studied him, and he is not accurate enough from the pocket. He needs play-action throws with big windows. The offense right now doesn’t fit him. They are trying to make him a pure pocket passer." Prescott reached the season’s midpoint with a QBR just below 50, which represents average. "Is it him or having no weapons?" another voter asked. "He has no center, he lost his already struggling rookie guard and their weapons were so bad, they gave up a first-round pick for Amari Cooper." I asked this voter whether the criticisms about accuracy from the pocket were fair. "Yes, I think that’s fair, so probably off this year, he is a three," this voter said. "I don’t think he can ever become a one, but I think he can be a two." Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders 2018 Tier: 2 Projected 2019 Tier: 3, with a chance to go lower Two years ago, when a sizable chunk of voters saw Carr as a talented young player with a shot at ascending toward the top tier, a small group of detractors steadfastly contended he would always wilt under pressure. That was the knock on Carr coming out of college: He wouldn’t stand tough in the pocket against the rush, some said — and that is the knock on him now. One voter said he saw Carr "flinching" late in a recent game against Indianapolis. "He gets the ball with three minutes left [against Indy] and goes checkdown, checkdown, checkdown, and then on fourth down, he throws a corner route 8 yards out of bounds," a different voter said. "There are a lot of ways to lead as a quarterback, and you don’t have to be vocal. Part of it is the linemen see the physical toughness in the quarterback and how he responds. Derek Carr can throw the ball as pretty as anyone, but so could Jeff George." There are, of course, huge mitigating factors. Carr is adjusting to a new offensive scheme without anything close to the supporting casts that have helped Goff and Mahomes light up scoreboards. Carr’s head coach has dismantled the roster. His aging offensive line has fallen apart. Running back Marshawn Lynch is out. The Raiders’ defense is terrible. "No one says it’s easy to play for Jon Gruden, including the guys who played for him," another voter said. "You can plausibly understand where this young man is probably being handled in a more strict and directive way. It takes some adjustment." This voter watched the end of the Indy game and wasn’t as alarmed as some others. "I got to look at that San Francisco game last week," this voter said. "Carr is climbing the pocket and getting immediately sacked. When the tackle is beat cleanly and you step up and your guards get driven back and the world closes in on you and you are pinched like a piece of ham in a sandwich, I’m pretty sure about 29 of 32 quarterbacks go down." One of the five voters initially left Carr in the second tier. "I might be late to react," he explained, "but a guy rarely falls from grace like that without some sort of external catastrophe." This voter then called back after watching Carr throw the ball away on fourth down in the late going against Indy. It was enough for him to drop Carr into the third tier for now. Eli Manning, New York Giants 2018 Tier: 3 Projected 2019 Tier: 4 Four of the five voters dropped Manning by one tier. Their overall criticisms were not as pointed as I was anticipating. "I’ve seen him throw some go routes where you are like, ‘Damn, that is like the old Eli, not Old Eli,’" this voter said. "I do think he needs to be replaced there, but I think he can be a three on another team." Manning’s 39.8 QBR is his lowest through eight games since 2006, the first year QBR data was available. His yards per attempt (7.6) is his highest through eight games since 2012. His passes have gained more than 15 yards on 15.9 percent of attempts, his highest eight-game rate since 2011. But his 2.5 percent rate of touchdowns is by far his lowest. "He is playing like a four right now," another voter said. "I am not as down on him as some. I think it is a combination of a lot of things. The protection is awful, and it is showing up. Eli will never be a two again, but I do think he can be a three, and I think you can still win with him. I was watching their offense the other day and a lot of their problems are up front."
It’s time for Watson to put it in 2nd gear now the stretch run is upon us hopefully Thomas is more up to speed for this run
............. Sorry - I know this is going to come across dick-ish, and I don't mean for it to - but I am genuinely asking: are you actually a fan of the team? You seem grossly uninformed. Will Fuller is hurt. Keke Coutee is hurt. Deshaun Watson has not been healthy; he played as much as a game and a half with a collapsed lung. Fully healthy, they have a slew of dangerous weapons. They are not fully healthy. They acquired him on a Tuesday; his first game was five days later. He was visibly confused and unsure of what to do - which is not terribly uncommon for players who've had all of five days to study a playbook his teammates have had since at least July. As the game progressed, and the team reacted to Denver's coverages, Thomas became less and less of a factor because he didn't know what to do. Again, for the third time: did you watch their game against the Miami Dolphins? There was nothing conservative about their passing attack. Their win against Denver wasn't pretty - but they were playing a Bronco team with a notoriously ferocious pass rush. Do you remember my mentioning Watson having a collapsed lung? They have to find a way to protect him each and every week - Denver presents a greater challenge than most. So they schemed to keep their RBs and/or TEs in to help pass block, which became even more critical after they lost starting offensive linemen during the game. With Fuller & Coutee hurt, with Thomas brand new, with offensive linemen going down, that plan - which was borne out of necessity - left Hopkins as essentially their only target on a fair amount of plays. AND THEY STILL WON! With the bye week, hopefully Thomas is up to speed, and Coutee and the OL will be healthier. If so, and with another week of healing for Watson, I suspect we'll see a more aggressive offensive scheme moving forward. If your standard is the 2018 Chiefs, prepare to be disappointed. Or if it's long passes, you should also prepare to be disappointed - this is not 1978 and we're not owned by Al Davis. I refuse to chase dark clouds - I have great appreciation for what the Texans have done this year. It'll (probably) end with a whimper in some capacity - but I really like the nucleus of the team and can't wait to see how to fortify it this offseason. And, at the end of the day, winning is more fun than losing, and I can't wait to (hopefully) see Watson in the postseason. He's a special kid who has a track record of rising to the occasion.
The one thing I couldn't/can't figure out is the rushing game. Miami and Denver are both pretty bad against the run. How come they were so successful running against the Dolphins, and so bad against the Broncos? The Texans are inefficient running. B'Ob obviously likes to run. The Texans are average to above average in running stats like total yards or yard/game. But 26th in yard/attempt. I mean NE is worse than them there, but their scoring doesn't seem quite so linked to that. I feel like if the Texans could just get from 3.9 y/a to 4.5 y/a they'd be scoring 30 consistently.
Will Fuller. Denver was able to stack the box because the Texans, essentially, had one weapon (Hopkins). Who else did they have to fear on that offense?
Because the Broncos game-planned for the run-first offense. They stacked the box, especially on first down. Washington is pretty good against the run but not necessarily against the pass (just gave up 400+ yards to Fitzpatrick, but limited them to 3 points). They won't need to have extra run-defenders so Deshaun is going to have to have a game.
Goodness, didn't see the stats of this game.. Can you imagine? 400 passing yards and 3 total points, ouch...
Yeah, I have always been an Oilers and Texans fan. How about you? Just because I don't share your opinion that run run pass is our only option doesn't mean I am less of a fan than you. No need to question that, or be kind of a jerk. i do believe some of the best teams use their tight ends a lot more than our rare use. They should have used them more since the start of the season. I do believe some good teams target multiple receivers, and even if our backups aren't Fuller, they can come into play. I do believe I am not the only one who has complained about our predictable play calling, which has existed long before Watson, Fuller, and Coutee were hurt. Yes, I did watch the Miami game. Maybe we can do more of that non conservative style playing against the Skins. After all, Fitz threw over 400 yards against them, so we know their pass offense isn't good. Anyway, I am looking forward to it, and hopefully a few more games where we can get our offense going. Go Texans![/QUOTE]
That makes sense. But still frustrating to see a lot of similar run up the middle that doesn't work. Also frustrating for the offense to be so heavily reliant on Will Fuller, lol. Does Thomas have downfield ability?
Yep; named my eldest son, Campbell. I ask not to be a dick but because you seem keenly oblivious to some fairly obvious issues - namely, the health, first of our QB; more recently, our wide receivers. I don't believe they have (nor will they) played a game this year healthy (beyond the usual drain of a long, punishing season). Ironically, it appears their most healthy game was Miami and.... they were kind of awesome and spectacular. For the record, and this speaks to my frustration with some of your posts because they seem completely untethered from what's actually happening: Jordan Thomas - a tight end - has caught three of Watson's most recent seven TDs. The root of the Texan's offensive shortcomings is rooted in the offensive line; it is requiring them to make some sacrifices on offense in order to provide even a bare minimum amount of protection for Watson. As players get hurt, those sacrifices - which only intensify in their necessity - grow more costly. If you want to rip the team for letting their offensive line deteriorate, have at it. But to seemingly not be aware of it as an issue (or the injuries) while you insist a team essentially playing with one hand tied behind its back be less conservative, upends your credibility on this subject. They're conservative out of necessity; not by some grand plan.
No, Thomas is not the same downfield threat as Fuller. Fuller - when healthy - is a dangerous, and unique, weapon. He opens up Hopkins, the run game......
Well... I guess here's the thing. If he's so unique in the sense that you are "lucky" to have one, and the one the Texans have is "injury prone", then B'Ob needs to find another way to get points on the board.
The Broncos game planned to stop our running attack. They would stack the box as well as kept a spy on Watson. You also have to understand every team plays each other differently. Just like, how was the Titans so dominant on both sides of the ball against the Patriots. Brady didn't even throw a TD in that game.
People also seem to forget that we lost, arguably, our best TE to injury before the season even started in CJ and were forced to replace him with two mid to late round rookies, essentially. He would be making a huge difference both in the run blocking and aerial attack for this offense if it weren't for him being forced to retire. Injuries are a b****.
Spoiler: QB Tiers ier 1: T1. Aaron Rodgers T1. Tom Brady 3. Drew Brees 4. Ben Roethlisberger Tier 2: 5. Matt Ryan 6. Russell Wilson 7. Matthew Stafford 8. Philip Rivers 9. Carson Wentz 10. Andrew Luck 11. Cam Newton 12. Derek Carr 13. Jimmy Garoppolo 14. Deshaun Watson Tier 3: T15. Kirk Cousins T15. Alex Smith T17. Eli Manning T17. Dak Prescott 19. Jared Goff 20. Jameis Winston 21. Marcus Mariota 22. Andy Dalton T23. Joe Flacco T23. Case Keenum 25. Tyrod Taylor 26. Blake Bortles 27. Ryan Tannehill 28. Sam Bradford Tier 4: 29. Mitchell Trubisky 30. Josh McCown 31. Patrick Mahomes 32. AJ McCarron
I don't understand how Deshaun isn't in tier 1. The Texans without Deshaun were the worst team in football. He should have been tier 1 in my opinion. In regards to Tier 4 grouping. Pat Mahomes is probably too good to be that far back but it really is telling how carried Trubisky and Mahomes are by their situation.
You make good points, but I'm not stupid, and there is reason beyond some of your logic for my comments. I am no expert, just all heart, and certainly no less of a fan than you of any Houston team. My comments come out of years of frustration from some of the stupid play calling, red zone offense, and clock management. It stems from years of seeing stupid and predictable plays with a healthy team, different running backs, and a never ending rotation of quarterbacks. How many years have people said our offensive line was bad, and how many years did we NOT fix it? For years people b****ed about it, and yet every once in awhile we see a good mix up of offense, play calling, and use of tight ends. I'm just tired of BOB, and have gotten sarcastic and critical of his so called brilliant offensive mind and his complicated offense. I doubt I am the only one who grew tired of him about 2 years ago. So sure, maybe some of my comments aren't logical to each weekly situation in your mind, but I just don't trust BOB is that great to not only coach, but be the a Offensive Coordinator too. Honestly, even if he takes us to a SuperBowl, I doubt I will credit him. Sad, but true. Maybe if he changes his old habits I will think differently. Who knows.
