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Deshaun the Great

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Colt45, Sep 10, 2017.

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J.R. said: ↑

What we saw from Deshaun Watson

As good as Wentz was, Watson was better in a smaller sample. Lower the limits to 200 pass attempts -- Watson had 204 -- and the Texans star led the league in yards per attempt (8.3) and Total QBR (81.3). He succeeded with a stat line that looks more like a top passer from the 1970s than one from today, which seems remarkable given that Watson is about as modern of a quarterback as it gets. Understanding what he will do in 2018 starts with the fact that ...

Watson succeeded despite an astronomical interception rate

It's virtually impossible for a quarterback to be good while throwing interceptions as frequently as Watson did last season. He threw eight picks on those 204 attempts, which was good for an interception rate of 3.9 percent. Only Siemian and DeShone Kizer threw interceptions more frequently with that 200-pass minimum. The Clemson star was on pace for a 486-pass season, which would have resulted in 19 interceptions over a full campaign.

Despite the fact that he threw a ton of interceptions, Watson was great! He posted the best passer rating by a quarterback with an interception rate between 3.5 and 4 percent since Y..A. Tittle in 1963. The group of passers who topped a 100 passer rating with this sort of interception rate includes Watson, three passers from before the AFL-NFL merger of 1970 and Chris Chandler's 1998 campaign. Just below them are more familiar names, including Roethlisberger's rookie campaign in 2004 and Tony Romo's first two seasons as a starter.

Usually, you can be good or you can throw interceptions. Watson did both.

The good news is that I think Watson should be better at avoiding interceptions as his career goes along -- and even as early as 2018. For one, two of his interceptions came on Hail Mary attempts, which shouldn't be treated as meaningful. Watson had two dropped interceptions, per FO, so his adjusted interception rate is in the same ballpark, but the added interceptions for other quarterbacks push him to 29th-best in the league, ahead of seven other passers.

In watching those picks, there's a line running through the decisions: Watson often got greedy and tried to make off-schedule throws without setting his feet and getting his body moving forward and/or tried to squeeze his passes into impossible windows. He scrambles around the pocket before making a late throw into the end zone. He rushes a throw under pressure and sails a pick-six to Jason McCourty. The Texans run play-action and roll Watson out to the boundary and flood it with receivers, leaving no room and a pick for Richard Sherman when Watson throws off his back foot.

Those are the sorts of things rookies do. Watson's decision-making should get better as he continues to grow, just as Wentz's did a year ago.

Bill O'Brien should (hopefully) be more aggressive

The Texans coach deserves credit for reshaping his offense around Watson's skills, but his late-game decision-making didn't fit the offensive juggernaut O'Brien had constructed. You can't buy a Ferrari and spend your entire drive across the country in the right lane. In doing so, O'Brien cost the Texans possible wins against the Patriots and Seahawks.

After Watson spent most of Week 3 decimating the Patriots' defense, O'Brien went conservative at the exact moment when his former boss Bill Belichick would have tried to seal things. The Texans faced a 4th-and-1 from the Patriots' 18-yard line with a two-point lead and 2:28 to go. The Patriots were down to one timeout and would have had two chances to stop the clock, so a conversion would have given the Patriots the ball back with no more than 30 seconds left (and possibly ended the game with a touchdown or a second conversion). Instead, the Texans kicked a field goal to turn a two-point lead into a five-point lead and dared Tom Brady to drive down the field on their defense. He did so with 23 seconds to spare.

Five weeks later, O'Brien got conservative in a different way. Watson ran for a first down to get the ball to his own 20-yard line at the two-minute warning with a four-point lead. The Seahawks had all of their timeouts, but one first down would have basically wrapped the game up. In a game in which Watson had thrown for 407 yards and run for 62, O'Brien ... handed the ball to Lamar Miller three times. The Seahawks used their three timeouts, and on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard line, O'Brien decided that the chances of punting with his defense keeping the Seahawks from scoring a touchdown were better than his chances of either converting a fourth-and-two or stopping the Seahawks from punching the ball in the end zone from 28 yards out. The Seahawks scored in three plays.

Doug Pederson's success going for it on fourth down in 2017 should encourage coaches with great offenses to trust them on fourth-and-short in key moments. (Likewise, as Pederson noted, coaches should learn from Doug Marrone's letting the Patriots off the hook in the AFC Championship Game.) Coaches work too hard during the week to hurt themselves with poor decisions on 4th-and-short. Yes, they're going to take some heat if they go for it late in a game and the decision doesn't go their way. But Pederson showed throughout last season that the upside is worth the risk. The Texans have to place their faith in Watson & Co.

Watson's receivers did incredible work

As much as Watson's interception rate made him look like a quarterback out of the 1970s, his average pass distance only furthers the story. Watson averaged a whopping 11.1 air yards per throw during his time as a starter, which is something out of a Joe Namath stat line. That's the third-deepest average pass in a 200-attempt season since 2006, and the two guys who topped Watson were famously unique: Tim Tebow (2011) and Michael Vick (2006).

Typically, when you see a passing offense with a lot of deep passes, you get a lot of drops. Receivers dropped 6.6 percent of Tebow's passes and 7.0 percent of Vick's throws during their respective seasons. They're not alone. When you look at the quarterbacks whose average pass distance has traveled 10 yards in the air or more since 2006 before Watson, the average drop rate for those quarterbacks was 4.9 percent.

Watson's drop rate was 1.0 percent. One percent! Part of that is the nature of a smaller sample, but 1.0 percent is the lowest drop rate we've seen for any quarterback with 200 or more pass attempts since 2006, when ESPN's drop data starts. The previous low was 1.7 percent, coincidentally set by the Texans' Matt Schaub in 2013. Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan were at 1.8 percent in 2016. None of those passers was throwing anywhere near as deep as Watson was last season. There's no way that's going to keep up in 2018.

Watson was incredible on play-action

This shouldn't be a surprise given Watson's abilities as a runner. Opposing defenses simply couldn't deal with Houston's play-action game last season. When he faked a handoff, Watson averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, with a 124.3 passer rating and a staggering 95.6 Total QBR. The latter number led the league and was the fourth-best QBR by a passer with 50 or more play-action attempts since 2007.

Watson should still be effective on play-action in 2018, but it'll be tough for the second-year passer to be as good.

The Texans' schedule was relatively easy

Watson came in for the second half of a brutal loss to the Jaguars in Week 1, but after that, he faced a pretty middling group of defenses before the ACL tear. His final start was against a Seahawks defense that finished the season 13th in defensive DVOA and was likely better earlier in the season, before dealing with the injuries that seemed to afflict nearly every one of the star contributors. Otherwise, Watson's starts were against below-average pass defenses, including the Bengals (17th), Patriots (21st), Chiefs (23rd), Titans (24th) and Browns (26th).

I'm not so sure, though, that Watson's schedule will be much tougher in 2018. Although it's not a specific projection of defensive performance, both the ESPN Football Power Index and Football Outsiders project that Watson's Texans will face the league's second-easiest schedule this season. Watson will have to play the Jaguars twice, but he gets the 32nd-ranked pass defense of the Colts twice too.

What's next

Both Watson and Wentz should be very good if they stay healthy in 2018. The way that they succeed, though, is extremely likely to look different than the way we saw them bust out in 2017. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect both to produce slightly less impressive numbers than the figures we saw last season. If they're both healthy heading into the postseason, though, I suspect their organizations will happily make that trade. Health concerns -- particularly for Watson, who has now torn each of his ACLs -- should be the only obstacles between these two franchise quarterbacks and MVP contention in the years to come.
Click to expand...

so i guess every team that faced those defenses went off..

J.R. said: ↑

Click to expand...

#321 HOUSTON2017, Aug 23, 2018

Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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I remember one time DeShaun took his family to Sea World. They were watching Shamu the whale when he and his family got splashed. So he yells, ‘I’m DeShaun Watson and no one gets me wet!’ So he climbs into the tank, grabs Shamu, and throws the whale into the audience, splashes him and yells, ‘How do you like it?’ And then damn if Watson didn’t step in there and finish the show!

#322 Xerobull, Aug 24, 2018

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The leaves had begun to change colors. The skies, a combination of blue and gray. Watson goes on to execute an incredible play. Afterwards, his main concern was not his wellness but the wellness of the waterboy, Watson turns the gatorade bottle and makes sure that the person in charge of hydrating was hydrated himself. By doing this, Watson not only earned my respect but saved a young man's life on the field. Water is important for survival.
this is exactly how I remember it.

#323 conquistador#11, Aug 24, 2018

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Xerobull said: ↑

I remember one time DeShaun took his family to Sea World. They were watching Shamu the whale when he and his family got splashed. So he yells, ‘I’m DeShaun Watson and no one gets me wet!’ So he climbs into the tank, grabs Shamu, and throws the whale into the audience, splashes him and yells, ‘How do you like it?’ And then damn if Watson didn’t step in there and finish the show!
Click to expand...

Wild bro. You wild af....

#324 FLASH21, Aug 24, 2018

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Did I ever tell you about the time DeShaun went hunting? He decides he’s going to hunt down all four of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. He stalks and kills every one of them with a machete. They all begged for their lives…except Leonardo!

#325 Xerobull, Aug 25, 2018

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Xerobull said: ↑

Did I ever tell you about the time DeShaun went hunting? He decides he’s going to hunt down all four of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. He stalks and kills every one of them with a machete. They all begged for their lives…except Leonardo!
Click to expand...

Lol. Can you post all day? Please.

#326 RasaqBoi, Aug 25, 2018
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Watson once got his girl pregnant and the next day she gave birth to a delicious 20 ounce steak. The after birth was sauteed mushrooms!

#327 Xerobull, Aug 25, 2018

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I

J.R. said: ↑

What we saw from Deshaun Watson

As good as Wentz was, Watson was better in a smaller sample. Lower the limits to 200 pass attempts -- Watson had 204 -- and the Texans star led the league in yards per attempt (8.3) and Total QBR (81.3). He succeeded with a stat line that looks more like a top passer from the 1970s than one from today, which seems remarkable given that Watson is about as modern of a quarterback as it gets. Understanding what he will do in 2018 starts with the fact that ...

Watson succeeded despite an astronomical interception rate

It's virtually impossible for a quarterback to be good while throwing interceptions as frequently as Watson did last season. He threw eight picks on those 204 attempts, which was good for an interception rate of 3.9 percent. Only Siemian and DeShone Kizer threw interceptions more frequently with that 200-pass minimum. The Clemson star was on pace for a 486-pass season, which would have resulted in 19 interceptions over a full campaign.

Despite the fact that he threw a ton of interceptions, Watson was great! He posted the best passer rating by a quarterback with an interception rate between 3.5 and 4 percent since Y..A. Tittle in 1963. The group of passers who topped a 100 passer rating with this sort of interception rate includes Watson, three passers from before the AFL-NFL merger of 1970 and Chris Chandler's 1998 campaign. Just below them are more familiar names, including Roethlisberger's rookie campaign in 2004 and Tony Romo's first two seasons as a starter.

Usually, you can be good or you can throw interceptions. Watson did both.

The good news is that I think Watson should be better at avoiding interceptions as his career goes along -- and even as early as 2018. For one, two of his interceptions came on Hail Mary attempts, which shouldn't be treated as meaningful. Watson had two dropped interceptions, per FO, so his adjusted interception rate is in the same ballpark, but the added interceptions for other quarterbacks push him to 29th-best in the league, ahead of seven other passers.

In watching those picks, there's a line running through the decisions: Watson often got greedy and tried to make off-schedule throws without setting his feet and getting his body moving forward and/or tried to squeeze his passes into impossible windows. He scrambles around the pocket before making a late throw into the end zone. He rushes a throw under pressure and sails a pick-six to Jason McCourty. The Texans run play-action and roll Watson out to the boundary and flood it with receivers, leaving no room and a pick for Richard Sherman when Watson throws off his back foot.

Those are the sorts of things rookies do. Watson's decision-making should get better as he continues to grow, just as Wentz's did a year ago.

Bill O'Brien should (hopefully) be more aggressive

The Texans coach deserves credit for reshaping his offense around Watson's skills, but his late-game decision-making didn't fit the offensive juggernaut O'Brien had constructed. You can't buy a Ferrari and spend your entire drive across the country in the right lane. In doing so, O'Brien cost the Texans possible wins against the Patriots and Seahawks.

After Watson spent most of Week 3 decimating the Patriots' defense, O'Brien went conservative at the exact moment when his former boss Bill Belichick would have tried to seal things. The Texans faced a 4th-and-1 from the Patriots' 18-yard line with a two-point lead and 2:28 to go. The Patriots were down to one timeout and would have had two chances to stop the clock, so a conversion would have given the Patriots the ball back with no more than 30 seconds left (and possibly ended the game with a touchdown or a second conversion). Instead, the Texans kicked a field goal to turn a two-point lead into a five-point lead and dared Tom Brady to drive down the field on their defense. He did so with 23 seconds to spare.

Five weeks later, O'Brien got conservative in a different way. Watson ran for a first down to get the ball to his own 20-yard line at the two-minute warning with a four-point lead. The Seahawks had all of their timeouts, but one first down would have basically wrapped the game up. In a game in which Watson had thrown for 407 yards and run for 62, O'Brien ... handed the ball to Lamar Miller three times. The Seahawks used their three timeouts, and on 4th-and-2 from his own 28-yard line, O'Brien decided that the chances of punting with his defense keeping the Seahawks from scoring a touchdown were better than his chances of either converting a fourth-and-two or stopping the Seahawks from punching the ball in the end zone from 28 yards out. The Seahawks scored in three plays.

Doug Pederson's success going for it on fourth down in 2017 should encourage coaches with great offenses to trust them on fourth-and-short in key moments. (Likewise, as Pederson noted, coaches should learn from Doug Marrone's letting the Patriots off the hook in the AFC Championship Game.) Coaches work too hard during the week to hurt themselves with poor decisions on 4th-and-short. Yes, they're going to take some heat if they go for it late in a game and the decision doesn't go their way. But Pederson showed throughout last season that the upside is worth the risk. The Texans have to place their faith in Watson & Co.

Watson's receivers did incredible work

As much as Watson's interception rate made him look like a quarterback out of the 1970s, his average pass distance only furthers the story. Watson averaged a whopping 11.1 air yards per throw during his time as a starter, which is something out of a Joe Namath stat line. That's the third-deepest average pass in a 200-attempt season since 2006, and the two guys who topped Watson were famously unique: Tim Tebow (2011) and Michael Vick (2006).

Typically, when you see a passing offense with a lot of deep passes, you get a lot of drops. Receivers dropped 6.6 percent of Tebow's passes and 7.0 percent of Vick's throws during their respective seasons. They're not alone. When you look at the quarterbacks whose average pass distance has traveled 10 yards in the air or more since 2006 before Watson, the average drop rate for those quarterbacks was 4.9 percent.

Watson's drop rate was 1.0 percent. One percent! Part of that is the nature of a smaller sample, but 1.0 percent is the lowest drop rate we've seen for any quarterback with 200 or more pass attempts since 2006, when ESPN's drop data starts. The previous low was 1.7 percent, coincidentally set by the Texans' Matt Schaub in 2013. Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan were at 1.8 percent in 2016. None of those passers was throwing anywhere near as deep as Watson was last season. There's no way that's going to keep up in 2018.

Watson was incredible on play-action

This shouldn't be a surprise given Watson's abilities as a runner. Opposing defenses simply couldn't deal with Houston's play-action game last season. When he faked a handoff, Watson averaged 10.3 yards per attempt, with a 124.3 passer rating and a staggering 95.6 Total QBR. The latter number led the league and was the fourth-best QBR by a passer with 50 or more play-action attempts since 2007.

Watson should still be effective on play-action in 2018, but it'll be tough for the second-year passer to be as good.

The Texans' schedule was relatively easy

Watson came in for the second half of a brutal loss to the Jaguars in Week 1, but after that, he faced a pretty middling group of defenses before the ACL tear. His final start was against a Seahawks defense that finished the season 13th in defensive DVOA and was likely better earlier in the season, before dealing with the injuries that seemed to afflict nearly every one of the star contributors. Otherwise, Watson's starts were against below-average pass defenses, including the Bengals (17th), Patriots (21st), Chiefs (23rd), Titans (24th) and Browns (26th).

I'm not so sure, though, that Watson's schedule will be much tougher in 2018. Although it's not a specific projection of defensive performance, both the ESPN Football Power Index and Football Outsiders project that Watson's Texans will face the league's second-easiest schedule this season. Watson will have to play the Jaguars twice, but he gets the 32nd-ranked pass defense of the Colts twice too.

What's next

Both Watson and Wentz should be very good if they stay healthy in 2018. The way that they succeed, though, is extremely likely to look different than the way we saw them bust out in 2017. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect both to produce slightly less impressive numbers than the figures we saw last season. If they're both healthy heading into the postseason, though, I suspect their organizations will happily make that trade. Health concerns -- particularly for Watson, who has now torn each of his ACLs -- should be the only obstacles between these two franchise quarterbacks and MVP contention in the years to come.
Click to expand...

His production is off the scale. He gets hot every game.

If he stays healthy he is gonna put up some of the greatest numbers ever.

#328 pgabriel, Aug 25, 2018
Last edited: Aug 25, 2018

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Did I ever tell you about the time DeShaun took me out to go get a drink with him? We go off looking for a bar and we can’t find one. Finally he takes me to a vacant lot close to Minute Maid Park and says, ‘Here we are.’ We sat there for a six weeks and sure enough someone constructs a bar around us. The day they opened we ordered a shot, drank it, and then burned the place to the ground. DeShaun yelled over the roar of the flames, ‘Always leave things the way you found em!'

#329 Xerobull, Aug 27, 2018

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Rewatching his highlight against the Legion of doom defense is giving me goosebumps this upcoming season.

#330 got em COACH, Aug 28, 2018

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got em COACH said: ↑

Rewatching his highlight against the Legion of doom defense is giving me goosebumps this upcoming season.

Click to expand...

Great example of BOBs offense and all the misdirection. Really spread them out and forced a nickel or safety to play wide with Lamar and Bruce with the end arounds. Opens up the middle for Watson to go to work.

#331 donkeypunch, Aug 28, 2018
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Xerobull said: ↑

Did I ever tell you about the time DeShaun went hunting? He decides he’s going to hunt down all four of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. He stalks and kills every one of them with a machete. They all begged for their lives…except Leonardo!
Click to expand...

Leonardo Decapitated?

#332 fallenphoenix, Aug 28, 2018
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The Pope told Watson it was OK to have a mistress.

#333 Xerobull, Aug 29, 2018

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got em COACH said: ↑

Rewatching his highlight against the Legion of doom defense is giving me goosebumps this upcoming season.

Click to expand...

I was at this game. What a roller coaster it was. Seattle fans were almost too nice expect for a couple. Place is definitely as loud as advertised though. Heartbreaking loss but thankfully the Stros had the epic game 5 win to end the night. Can’t believe BOB’s decisions to run the ball up the middle and give the ball back to Brady & Wilson on the road with our awful defense to eventually blow those two games. Can only hope he learned from that and won’t make that mistake again. Gotta have a killer instinct and let DW4 put the dagger in.

#334 HstnSprtsFan101, Aug 30, 2018

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Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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DeShaun's poop is considered currency in Argentina, Venezuela and Albania!

#335 Xerobull, Sep 1, 2018
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Xerobull said: ↑

DeShaun's poop is considered currency in Argentina, Venezuela and Albania!
Click to expand...

One turd in Venezuela will get you a mansion these days.

#336 donkeypunch, Sep 1, 2018
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I once saw him scissor kick Beyonce...and she thanked him for it!

#337 Xerobull, Sep 2, 2018

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#338 zeeshan2, Sep 3, 2018

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Bus stop in Germany today

#339 Joe Fan, Sep 4, 2018

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From my book of bible stories. No offense to jehova witnesses, my dad is one.

#340 conquistador#11, Sep 4, 2018

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