Actually.... If Alabama wins the rest of their regular season games then they will pass Georgia and go into the SEC game as #1. I don't see them dropping out of the top 4 if they lose that game. So I guess OU needs to win out, have Alabama win the SEC game or obviously have someone else lose above them.
If Georgia runs the table and loses to Alabama fairly closely, they will remain in the top 4. Better hope they lose at Auburn.
11/7/2017 1. Georgia 2. Alabama 3. Notre Dame 4. Clemson 5. Oklahoma 6. TCU 7. Miami 8. Wisconsin 9. Washington 10. Auburn 11. USC 12. Michigan State 13. Ohio State 14. Penn State 15. Oklahoma State 16. Mississippi State 17. Virginia Tech 18. UCF 19. Washington State 20. Iowa 21. Iowa State 22. Memphis 23. NC State 24. LSU 25. Northwestern
11/14/2017 1. Alabama 2. Clemson 3. Miami 4. Oklahoma 5. Wisconsin 6. Auburn 7. Georgia 8. Notre Dame 9. Ohio State 10. Penn State 11. USC 12. TCU 13. Oklahoma State 14. Washington State 15. UCF 16. Mississippi State 17. Michigan State 18. Washington 19. NC State 20. LSU 21. Memphis 22. Stanford 23. Northwestern 24. Michigan 25. Boise State
Wisconsin now controls their own destiny, but I don't think they have much of a chance against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. If they continue to play with the intensity of the last two weeks, Miami will beat Clemson in the ACC title game. My CFP picks are now Alabama, Miami, OU, Ohio State. If Clemson beats Miami in a close one, both of them will probably join Alabama and OU.
I think there's a decent chance Auburn makes it in place of Ohio State. If Auburn runs the table, they'd close with wins over Georgia, Alabama, and Georgia, and two close road losses (one to Clemson). Ohio State has two blowout losses, one at home - I'd probably put in a 1-loss Alabama over them despite not playing for an SEC title in that scenario.
11/21/2017 1. Alabama 2. Miami 3. Clemson 4. Oklahoma 5. Wisconsin 6. Auburn 7. Georgia 8. Notre Dame 9. Ohio State 10. Penn State 11. USC 12. TCU 13. Washington State 14. Mississippi State 15. UCF 16. Michigan State 17. Washington 18. LSU 19. Oklahoma State 20. Memphis 21. Stanford 22. Northwestern 23. Boise State 24. South Carolina 25. Virginia Tech
Teams with 3 losses ahead of UCF is ridiculous. It basically underscores how little the committee values any team outside the power 5. Mississippi State has won 1 game against a ranked opponent. They lost to Auburn 49-10, but yet they are 14th in the ranks, lol.
11/28/2017 1. Clemson 2. Auburn 3. Oklahoma 4. Wisconsin 5. Alabama 6. Georgia 7. Miami 8. Ohio State 9. Penn State 10. USC 11. TCU 12. Stanford 13. Washington 14. UCF 15. Notre Dame 16. Michigan State 17. LSU 18. Washington State 19. Oklahoma State 20. Memphis 21. Northwestern 22. Virginia Tech 23. Mississippi State 24. NC State 25. Fresno State
The scenario that causes maximum chaos isn't nearly as improbable as it seems like it is in most years. Miami, as team who has played up and down to their opponent this season, could conceivably knock off Clemson. Auburn ran Georgia off the field the first time around, but it wouldn't be a shock to see the tables turn this time around. TCU has a puncher's chance against Oklahoma, and I think most people assume that Ohio State will beat Wisconsin. All of that would essentially create a situation where the committee would have to do what most people think they do anyway and just make it up as they go along. Very few contending teams would have airtight cases over any other. Everyone has very real holes in their resume.
Seems like it would be pretty straightforward this year: Miami/Clemson winner is a no-brainer. Both have wins against a top-tier team (Auburn, Notre Dame) along with the win over the other. Auburn/Georgia winner is a no-brainer. Georgia would have a win over ND and Auburn. Auburn would have Georgia/Alabama/Georgia. Beyond that, OU and Wisconsin are in with wins. It really just gets interesting if one of these two lose. I think if either one loses, Alabama is in. If both lose, Alabama and Ohio State are in. I don't think anyone else has a shot.