Our bullpen in the 2nd half of the season fell off a cliff, but I'm not sure how much of it is due to fatigue because of that injury plagued stretch. But I'm not sure how much top tier relievers we should add because of our salaries currently. In 2017, Astros after Verlander paid an adjusted salary of $149,964,177. Most of the top tier teams will reach up to 190m or so, but remember we have some future FAs to worry about. Contract situations: 1. Gurriel: His contract decreases each year so by 2m for 3 more seasons. 2. McCann: Has a vested option for 2019 that will pay him 15m if he plays more than 90 games in 2018. 3. Gregerson's 6m salary is off the books, and next year is SIpps last year too. 4. Keuchel, Verlander, Morton, Marwin are all FA's after the 2018 season. 5. Our core 4 hitters are locked in until 2020 at earliest (altuve). So with that said how much do you guys think we should realistically spend in the FA market? Some names include Wade Davis, Addison Reed, David Robertson, Greg Holland, I also read a report Indians might not keep Bryan Shaw (Don't know why).
I think Fiers is dealt this winter. The Astros have six veteran starters (Verlander, Keuchel, Morton, Peacock, McCullers, McHugh) and one inexperienced starter (Martes), plus two starters in AAA who are ready (Paulino and Armenteros). I am betting that Jim Crane will OK Luhnow to go after Wade Davis in free agency. The Astros will have to outbid the Cubs, which seems unlikely.
I still do not know if I want to resign Keuchel. I have a feeling he will be a Yankee. I think Marwin is a must if you do not have to over pay.
I'm assume you are using the sportrac number, which is a little deceptive because it tries to account for the draft allotment and international spending. We will spend much less on those 2 areas next year FWIW. Our actual MLB payroll was around 130-135 million What I think we "should" do really doesn't matter. Crane has been very true to his word so far about increasing spending. While we haven't had the big jump some wanted, our payroll has consistently been increasing 20-30 million every season, and I expect this offseason to be no different. Our payroll right now is about 135-140 million if we trade/non tender Fiers, right about where we ended last season. That means we will probably have the usual 20-30 million to spend.
Verlander is a free agent after 2019. Altuve is a free agent after 2019. My guess is Morrow and McGee as free agents. Shouldn't cost too much.
Not sure what winning a WS does to a payroll... but its a fair guess that thanks to 9 extra home game sellouts, plus a slew of merchandise/concession sales, and the expected jump in both season ticket holder base and overall attendance for next season... that the 2017 Astros (taking into account everything) are the most profitable team in houston baseball history.
I don't see why draft allotment and international spending shouldn't be included. The money comes out of the same budget. Needing to spend less on draft and international spending should free up money for the MLB team.
Hey, I hope both of you are right. Given the playoff run, and almost guarantee of increased attendance, we should be talking about at least an extra 30-40 million in revenue on top of spending probably close to 5-8 million less on the amateur signings. We should be talking close to 50 million extras dollars over the next calendar year. But Crane's MLB payroll thus far has remained on a pretty static trajectory, I'm not expecting it to change too much, nor do I really think it needs to this year. The big issue is what starts happening next off season and beyond.
All I know is that a double shot of whiskey in game 5 cost a solid $26. I hope my efforts payed towards a better bullpen.
I think Marwin is gone after 2018. You have Gurriel, Reddick, and Springer for 3 more years. The 3rd outfield spot is for Kyle Tucker with Marisnick to backup. If you believe in Moran, then you have your 5 infielders. Unless Marwin is willing to take backup salary, then you'll have to let him go.
David Robertson is not a free agent and I don't see him as being on the market. Shaw is a free agent and the Indians may not keep him because of financial limitations and the fact that he is a bit overrated. I'm hoping for Brandon Morrow & Tony Watson among free agents, though I've seen some other names I was less familiar with that might be better options than Watson.
A quick number number crunch. Getting back to 3 million attendance would mean 600K extra fans, at about $70 a head with concessions, that's 42 million. We probably made 20-25 million from the postseason run, on top of increased merchandise sales. We're probably talking close to 70-75 million in extra revenue. That's even more coin than I expected. From what I remember, our revenue was about 300 million in 2016.
I wonder when their TV deal is up for re-negoitation? Not that they'd ever do anything close to a CSN-like debacle again... but if there's ever a time to cash in on leverage, now would be it. ATT shows the games... which is ultimately all that matters... but they really do very little else. All the other post-season teams had their own post-game shows on their regional networks. ATT had poker.... and ultimately showed replays of a rockets game that had just happened 2 hours prior.
According to this: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/ ... 2032.
Crane has got to be pretty close to recouping his original investment. I'd imagine he will be more eager and willing than ever to open up the books.
