At the risk of engaging here I will ask a very simple question: How do you determine if something is the "right" move? I'm genuinely curious. It appears as if any time a move doesn't work it's the wrong move in your mind. Which is cool. I know people like that exist. I just don't want them running things for me, judging people who run things, or anywhere associated with any leadership team I've ever put together. Nor do I want them in my organization as employees b/c I tend to like critical thinking (or at least people that don't loudly proclaim their own non-critical thinking for the world to see), but I'm totally interested in seeing you lay out your thought process for how to determine if AJ Hinch made a good move or if he made a bad move.
Hinch should be burned at the stake for misusing Giles when it was somewhat obvious he was having trouble with his slider earlier in the year. Here's a list of every Astros pitcher that has pitched with good results in high leverage situations this year: Pressley James If you think Hinch should have pitched any other reliever in a high leverage situation, Hinch has tried it and it has blown up in his face at some point in the season. Rondon and Peacock are the only other two with ERAs under 5 (3.68 and 4.50, respectively). The way this year is going, as soon as Hinch gives James and Pressley some more high leverage situations, they will give up homers with men on base, too. Edit: This should not be taken that I think Hinch has done a bad job. He has done quite well. He has searched for a guy that could handle high leverage situations (there is more to high leverage than just save opportunities). All have failed (except two new guys to the team with a combined ~ 3 innings or so of high leverage work) in usually a spectacular fashion.
Keuchel was the one he left in too long. With our BP arms augmented, he should not hesitate to pull starters when they start having baserunners on and facing the top of the order. Sorry, Keuchel, every run counts.
I think there is nuance to it. You can't just say if it worked then it was the right move and if it didn't then it was wrong--every time. You can look at every move analytically or you can use intuition and "feel" for how the game is going. In reality there should be a combination of both. Hinch obviously knows his staff more than me, but in that situation after giving up those 2 hits back to back I would have preferred he pulled Rondon. Who you put in is an entirely different question.
When exactly should he have pulled Keuchel? Are you telling us you would have pulled him after the 4th inning?
Except it's not. If you take someone out, you need to replace him. Osuna, Pressly, and James were not available Smith, McHugh and Sipp were used already You agree that Peacock was a bad idea there So Devo and Will Harris was your remaining options. Devo is a total mess and Harris has failed all the time in high leverage situations. And in your world, you'd have compounded the problem by pulling Keuchel even earlier.
And yet only 4 out of 33 inherited runners have scored? Sipp's ERA will be inflated if he allows anything, as he rarely pitches a full inning. His primary job is to get lefties out, usually with men on base, and not let inherited runners score. This is where you can get a little lost in certain statistics. The bullpen, and the guys in their current roles, has come together better than anybody could have imagined. No longer needing to rely on Devo/Harris. McHugh also has shown regression lately and may no longer be the ultimate bridge guy, better they find that out now. Pressly/Rondon/Osuna is a very good 7-8-9.
How does his primary job affect how he does in high leverage situations? I'm not saying anything about bullpen in general as it has been great in general. I'm saying the bullpen, regardless of who or sample size outside of Pressly and James, have not performed well in high leverage situations for Hinch. I understand it is mostly just bad luck in high leverage. The lack of clutch performance by the bullpen has probably cost the Astros about 4 wins over what is expected from a bullpen this good (rough guess). I'm sorry if this came off as an indictment to the current bullpen or Hinch. To me, it is more an oddity (i.e., not predictive of future performance) that I do not believe should rest on Hinch as bad bullpen management. Rondon is the best the Astros have had in high leverage situations this season with a decent sample size. It is ridiculous that Hinch having him in is viewed by one as a bad decision. I am very happy with Rondon and Pressly. Heck, I am happy with McHugh, Peacock, and Smith as well. McHugh has given up some more walks and homers lately, but the strikeouts are still there. McHugh has a good track record regarding walks and homers so I expect them to regress back to normal provided he isn't dealing with blisters or something like that.
And it shouldn't have happened if it weren't for the umps. We should have won that game in 9, and then Tony Sipp would have never been needed.
