If you are saying it’s “very doubtful” that Martes, Paulino, or Feliz get traded, then I totally disagree. Martes is probably the most likely player to be trade of any in Houston’s organization. Luhnow has said in the past, and I agree, that a team needs 8-10 SP to get through a season. Right now they have 6 who would be in virtually any team’s rotation (Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, McHugh, Peacock). They have Musgrove and Feliz who have been relievers but can be stretched back out if needed. They have prospects who are big league ready in Martes, Paulino, and Rodgers. Then they have arms without big league experience but who are in the upper levels and should be ready in 2018: Deetz, C Perez, Whitley, Armenteros, Thornton, and less likely, Quiala, James, and Bostick. That’s 16-19 arms they’ll have available. Trading 1-3 of those guys would still leave them with plenty of depth. And that’s without adding any other arms from outside.
Feliz is a reliever. My comment was meant to refer to Martes and Paulino. You list a bunch of names, but right now is Martes considered in the Top 8-10 SPs for the Astros. Luhnow has mentioned he considers these guys, even the ones in the minors, part of the MLB team as they will be needed. Luhnow has also mentioned it is hard to trade guys that are part of the MLB team away as it lessens the effectiveness of the trade. Sure, under the right circumstances he would trade Martes, but it takes a lot of value to be worth it and overcome the drop off in talent from Martes to someone like Deetz. Also, Martes may go the reliever route if he figures out how to warm up and pitch from the stretch. It is more likely he becomes a reliever than he gets traded.
A team needs strong depth to get through the rigor of the ML regular season. This past season the Astros sustained so many injuries but managed to keep chugging along. Because the had viable depth. Altuve and Keutchel are paid well under their market value; and neither has complained publicly or pouted on the field. Astros need to keep their core group happy and relevant. It’s a group that plays with heart and determination. Everyone who was around them said as much. Luhnow said he was building for the long haul, and would make adjustments as needed. Other teams are trying to catch up to what Astros have accomplished. But i think the Astros will stick to value contracts on the ML level, or trading AAA guys with no room on the Astros for young talent to continue to groom.
Hence, the Astros core is trending up even after winning the World Series. We would need another Cosart for Dominguez/Martes/Marisnick/1st round type deal to force our hands at a trade. Unless it a minor league talent shuffle move.
Salvador Perez would be an interesting acquisition. I think he'll cost way too much, but he'd be one helluva addition. Being close friends with Altuve doesn't hurt, either. Perez flies under the radar in KC. People know he's one of the best catchers of the generation, but the dude is an absolute beast. Could be the best C of the generation when its all said and done.
You’re not getting Perez without giving up 3 good prospects. So you can take out H Perez and Feliz if you want (Stassi is a throw-in as he’s out of options), but no way is that a dramatic overpay. Perez is one of the 5 best catchers in baseball and he’s under extremely cheap control for 4 more seasons.
I am okay with the prospect cost for Perez but some of that has to be offset if we are taking back Gordon and his atrocious contract.
My contention is that Herrera, Maurer, and Alexander have enough surplus value to offset Gordons contract, which is probably about $35M underwater. I’m projecting $5M in surplus from Herrera, $10M from Maurer, and $20M from Alexander.
Herrera has 1 year of control Maurer has 2 years Alexander has 5 years Okay I am warming to your proposal some now. MY other concern though is Perez, he has been a below average offensive player 3 out of the last 4 seasons, if his defensive profile begins to slip he could fall off a cliff in terms of overall value. Need to check his WARP figures to see how he has fared over that span in terms of pitch receiving and presentation.
Some off the wall trade ideas: Astros get: RP Will Smith PTBNL Giants get: OF Jake Marisnick Astros get their lefty, Giants get their CF. Astros get: SP Zack Greinke $30M PTBNL DBacks get: SP Collin McHugh Astros get another ace, DBacks get salary relief so they can buy JD Martinez plus get a good MoR SP to replace Greinke.
Realmuto requests trade. My hypothetical: Astros get: C JT Realmuto OF Christian Yelich RP Brad Ziegler Marlins get: OF Kyle Tucker OF Derek Fisher SP Francis Martes OF Yordan Alvarez SP Hector Perez C Max Stassi Despite that it looks like a load of talent going to Miami, I think that deal would be a steal for Houston. Yelich and Realmuto are both Top 5 players at their positions and under cheap control through the entirety of Houston’s projected competitive window. I would probably even be willing to include Whitley if they took out Martes and Alvarez. Resulting opening day roster: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa LF Yelich C Realmuto 1B Gurriel DH Gattis RF Reddick Bench: Marwin, McCann, Marisnick Rotation: Verlander, Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, McHugh Bullpen: Peacock, Sipp, Devenski, Ziegler, Rondon, Smith, Harris, Giles AAA: Musgrove, Paulino, Rodgers, Deetz, Guduan, Gustave, Feliz, Hoyt, C Perez, Kemp, Reed, White, Moran, Davis DFA: Gose (hopefully could work out a trade with the Rangers)
I’d do that deal in a heartbeat, but I think if you want both Yelich and Realmuto, we'd need to give up both Tucker and Whitley.
Highly doubtful that the Yankees would trade with Houston, but I’d be interested in helping them clear payroll so they can overpay Darvish. How about: Astros get: LF Jacoby Ellsbury RP David Robertson 3B Dermis Garcia $20M Yankees get: RP James Hoyt RP Jandel Gustave Clears $50M+ from Yankees payroll, gives them two mlb ready relief prospects. Houston gets a LF, a closer, and high upside young corner IF prospect. Yankees sign Darvish which takes them out of the running for Cole.
Hoyt and Gustave are not “bad”. Hoyt has 11.86k/9 in the majors, that’s elite. Gustave hasn’t been as productive, but he throws 100+. Neither are top prospects, but both are still waiting for their first extended opportunity and have upside so I would consider them prospects, but I don’t care how you label them. NY would make this trade as a salary dump of Elsburys awful contract so that they could add another big contract. Gustave/Hoyt also make it a neutral 40 man trade.
I wouldn’t say Houston “needs” Ellsbury. But they do have an opening in LF, especially if they plan on trading Fisher for a starting pitcher. Ellsbury would be the same to me as signing Carlos Gonzalez. He could be an above average defensive LF with a league average bat who also has some (declining) value on the bases. And with the Yankees eating $20M he’d only cost ~$13M/yr (which is still more than he’s worth, but Houston would also be getting a good prospect in return along with Robertson, a closer who has some surplus value).
I think Ellsbury is in steeper decline than Carlos Gonzalez. I also do not think the Yanks would want to deal D Robertson--especially to the Astros.
