Astros payroll that counts towards the luxury tax is in the 185 million dollar range. If you give Keuchel 19 million we only have about 2 million to spend on any additional payroll. That's not enough. Dallas Keuchel does not guarantee a World Series. We are already a massive favorite to win the division with what we have. If we don't let some of these young guys play we are going to be in bad shape come 2020 when Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Miley, Harris, Pressly, and Rondon all hit free agency. I view making significant moves at the deadline when you are halfway through your season and know what additions your team needs as more of a "going for it now" move than adding Keuchel when we had him last year and didn't win the World Series.
Astros aren't running a rookie welfare program. If Keuchel is willing to accept a reasonable deal, do it. Let the rookies claw and fight for innings. Let the veterans claw and fight for innings. If James is great, trade Miley or Keuchel.
There will be plenty of innings for the young guys even if Keuchel is signed I know last year our starters stayed amazingly healthy, that’s just not how it typically works
Agreed. Morton was 7th in the AL in ERA, behind Snell, 2 other Astros pitchers, and 3 Cleveland pitchers. Keuchel was #15 overall. The idea that we can just plug in young guys and Miley/McHugh and get 2 of the AL's top 15 pitchers out of it seems unlikely. That said, last year, the offense regressed and the pitching was near-perfect with performance and health. It's likely we'll swing back the other way with pitching this year (ignoring the guys we lose, Verlander and Cole got worse in the 2nd half and are likely to regress some as well), and the offense will need to step up some more.
Bottom line is what I’ve said a few times already, starting pitching health RARELY works like it did for us last year. Innings will be available for the young guys. Even if Keuchel were signed (which is very unlikely) you have McHugh who has proven to be great in the pen, if James wins a spot and Miley looks good in the spring McHugh goes back to the pen. Then when injuries hit you have McHugh or Whitley or Perez or whoever to fill in I love our collection of young arms, I just don’t understand the world where people think a guy like Keuchel isn’t needed People get down on Keuchel because they saw him as a Cy Young winner and now he isn’t that same guy. If he were someone else, but had the same exact current ability, and we signed him for 2/38 plus an option, people would love it. But when they see the name Keuchel and he performs as a solid mid rotation starter but not an ace, they are disappointed
I think our offense could be the best in baseball If Correa is back to full health his production will go back up, Brantley is a big upgrade and offensively Chironos is an upgrade also.
Houston currently projects 6th in position player war by Fangraphs. Astros, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox all have 9 hitters who project for >.320 wOBA (Dodgers 8), so those lineups are all stacked. If the Dodgers add Harper or Realmuto they will unquestionably have the best lineup in the league and likely one of the best of all time. Angels project for more WAR but defense weighs heavy for them. For my part I think I would rather have the Dodgers and Cubs lineups than Houston (if picking only for 2019), and Boston, Washington, and St. Louis are all in the conversation with Houston in that same tier. But of course all those teams are close in talent and if things break right Houston’s lineup could end up producing the most. Tucker asserting himself and pushing Reddick to the bench (or out) would be high impact, as would White repeating last season and all the studs staying healthy. Only low ceiling spots are 1B and C, where Gurriel and Chirinos are both pretty limited.
We are trying to win a WS, but you are concerned about not improving our team because it might hurt the development of somebody? The young guys will get a chance because the rotation won't stay healthy, and Josh James being out of the rotation makes the pen stronger.
And you always have the option of playing White at 1B and one of the OF at DH. Say Tucker comes in ready to produce and Reddick goes back to 2017 level, there is another option for covering DH/1B And while Yuli is fairly limited in upside, it’s not like he is a hole in the lineup.
Looking at Fangraphs projected batting and base running runs (removing DH runs for comparing to NL teams), Astros have the projected top offense by a good margin. Dodgers would pass Astros with Harper, but not Realmuto. Astros fielding is not projected to be very good.
I expect Yuli to have a bounce back year. That surgery he had last year is known for limiting a players power for that season. I think he will be a .290 hitter with around 18-22 HRs and an OPS around .800. I am way more concerned with Correa. He's a 6ft 4 inch SS that dives all over the field and has a high torque swing with a back injury.
Correa has a lot more margin for error. The concern with Yuli is that he has no plate discipline and depends on extreme bat to ball contact skills. Any significant loss of contact skills is going to make him unplayable at 1B.
I have two responses to this: First, I should clarify my expectations for Keuchel. I firmly believe that Keuchel is in the downswing of his career. If it was Verlander and not Keuchel, I would not argue this stance. Verlander is an elite pitcher with the capability of putting our team on his back and delivering a World Series ring. Keuchel is not of that elk any longer. Second, I have a lot of optimism in James. I believe that he is ready now, and has a high probability of outperforming Keuchel over the stretch of this season in 2019. As such, I’m not suggesting that we throw in a bunch of unprepared rookies in order to try and put together a great unknown. I’m suggesting that we utilize a player that has already demonstrated high success in a short period of must-win baseball.
