The Astros are probably gonna pay Springer roughly 45 million over these next 3 years non guaranteed, assuming production remains relatively stable. 35-40 million, while also guaranteeing all of it seems like a hell of a premium for one extra year. I'm sure discussions were had, but I imagine Springer was understandably asking for a huge premium given how important that extra year is to his next contract. Likewise the Astros probably felt the premium was too high. They couldn't find a middle ground and settled for a much simpler, and less divisive deal. Kick the can down the road a little to see how the next 2 years play out for all parties involved.
Smart move not buying out the last arb year. With possible labor unrest when the CBA expires, tons of variables on both sides. A 3-4 year deal going into last arb year may look a lot better then than it does now.
Springer is a stud on an upward trajectory. I honestly think the Astros will get more than their money's worth. We're talking about an MVP caliber player when at his very best and healthy for 162.
I’m not sure if you’re familiar with how the arbitration process works. The Astros were guaranteed to “get more than their money’s worth” simply by doing nothing. Them doing this simply avoids having to exchange arbitration values next year.... but like I said earlier, still gives them potential flexibility to put together a multi-year deal that buys out his last arbitration year.
Question: Does this provide any outlook or a "cleaner" slate when offering extensions to Altuve and Correa? That's what I thought the point of working out a contract prior to arbitration was truly for.
No. Teams can possibly get arbitration eligible players to agree to a multi-year deal that buys out some of the free agency years... especially when they offer an extension prior to any of the arbitration years (prior to the player making 8 figures).... but that is not what this was. They basically just agreed to not haggle over arbitration for this year and next year. He’s still going to be a free agent in 2021 (as was always the case), unless they decide to work something else out after 2019. Now, Altuve is already on a team-friendly/arbitration buyout deal... which he’s clearly outperformed. If the team wanted to try and negotiate an extension now, by giving him a $10-15 million/year raise these next 2 years... provided he’d also agree to an extension that covered some FA years... that would be something that definitely could benefit both sides now. Or, Altuve digs in his heals, plays for nothing for 2 more years, and then really breaks the bank.
Gotcha, makes sense. I guess we will have to wait on Correa to finish out his contract since he doesn't plan on getting a deal done until after it runs its course. As long as we win one more with those 3 guys under contract I think it'll be worth the price(s). I guess the pitchers upcoming contracts will be a much bigger risk/reward cost if anything. Good luck Kuechel and McCullers!
Yeah, I doubt they try hard to extend Keuchel unless he gives them too good of a deal to pass up (doubtful if he stays healthy). Correa will still only be 26 at the time of his free agency year, so its highly unlikely he tries to get something done prior... however, as I mentioned earlier, the upcoming CBA issues could change plenty as far as how these negotiations are going. If there is some sort of agreed upon salary floor/cap, with set contract parameters (in order to protect the vast majority of non-super-duper starr free agents that are looking for just one decent payday post-arbitration), it could entice some players to try and negotiate extensions ahead of time (which I presume would be grandfathered in/uncapped).
Doesn't the current CBA go through 2021? I think George will be signing a long term contract with some team prior to the next CBA being finalized.
Depends on whether or not they could get an even bigger deal after the new CBA goes through. That could entice some to sign short 1-2 year deals until they see what happens with negotiations. If things continue as is, I see George suffering from the same issues plaguing a lot of the free agents from this off season. Guys who are on the wrong side of 30, with likely their best years behind them, struggling to get a team to commit for long-term deals. Having an NBA-like system, with a salary cap and set contract parameters, would take a lot of the guess-work out of contract offers/negotiations.
You're buying up his most valuable free agency year (the first one, where he should be able to maximize his earnings); he's not going to agree to that unless he's heavily incentivized to do so. Thus, the overpay for his 3 arbitration years. But in terms of value, if he remains a 4-5 WAR player the next four years (not impossible), you're still vastly underpaying his value - by nearly half.
If I were Springer at his age (and position, and athleticism), I'd pull a Kirk Cousins and say "arb me every year" to literally any attempt at buying out a free agency year. So much potential downside in waiting even 1 year more. If he was 2-3 years younger, then I'd think he'd at least be open to the buy out.
I remember when Astros' general counsel came to my sports law class and lectured on arbitration. It's nearly impossible not to hurt players' feelings in arbitration. The team basically lays out why Player sucks (or are worth less than Player think they're worth). Most fans probably don't realize just how ugly arbitration really becomes, and it gets ugly fast. It probably gets even uglier when Player actually wants to remain with the organization in the long-term, as Springer (reportedly) wants. I would guess that, for some players, arbitration becomes more about the principal than it does the actual dollar increase. I'd guess that the Astros learned their lesson with Jason Castro. Castro's agent brought stats to back up that, not only was he one of the best catchers in Astros history, but that during Castro's HOU tenure, he was one of the best catchers in the MLB, and should be paid as such. Astros won the arbitration from a fiscal standpoint, but you have to wonder if what they argued either got to Castro's head or affected his play or confidence in any manner. There are positives in avoiding arbitration, even if it doesn't appear that way on the payroll. I think HOU inking this short-term deal certainly bodes well for HOU inking Springer in the long-term. Avoid the nastiness of arbitration and bask in the glow of WS rangz. Also, it sends a great message to the players, that the FO is willing to negotiate over arbitration-eligible years to keep players secure and happy.
It certainly can get nasty... but this is the system the players overwhelmingly agreed to. I'm sure owners would love it if there were more "rookie scale" contracts, that have a fixed amount no matter how good the player is. If the players want to argue for less arbitration eligible years in the next CBA, and earlier free agency, it would mitigate a lot of these negotiations... but then players better hope they're hitting their potential peak earlier, or else they'll be losing maximum earning potential.
It's win win. The player gets guaranteed $ and the team probably saves a few bucks over the two years. $10.5M; $15m wasn't too far of a stretch. The team assumes the risk and the player takes security with the promise of future paydays. It also sets up the final arbitration year to have a base of $12M rather than $15M. It takes some forethought to keep this club together for as long as possible.
