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Astros interested in Yu Darvish?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by MadMax, Dec 19, 2017.

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  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    To some extent, yes... to some extent no.

    If the Astros had lockdown closers or true lefty specialists... you'd see them do more of what's been done over the last 20 years.

    Since they don't, they've adapted... which is key. Too many teams (including the Astros) tried to emulate/find roles for guys who weren't really suited to that sort of usage.
     
  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Long guys typically pitch a lot of innings per appearance and suck.
    Traditional setup guys and closers average about an inning a game or less. While some suck, the vast majority of relief pitchers that don't suck traditionally fit this category.
    I'll add loogies as a traditional role as well.

    Where do Devenski, Alexander, Miller, Swarzak, Betances, Rusin, Green, Minor, Bradley, Petit, Robertson, Iglesias, Claudio, Hand, and Givens fit?

    These guys don't suck like traditional long men and for the most part don't pitch as many innings per appearance. They don't pitch as few innings per appearance as traditional setup men/closers. Sure there are exceptions to this every year. 2017 is the first year I can remember that nearly half the league had a guy like this. I'm guessing several other teams tried to make a guy like these, but the guy ended up sucking.
     
  3. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Devenski became a traditional 1 inning guy as the year went on... I suppose because his arm was no longer responding like it was at the beginning of the year.

    Same with Betances.

    Basically, if arms can withstand the usage (like Miller), they become that sort of hybrid guy... but not everybody can do that.
     
  4. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    The guys you mention continue to fit into the 6th-8th inning roles, pitching an inning or two - set up guys...perhaps the occasional 2 inning save if the closer is taking a day off.
     
  5. conquistador#11

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    come one Jeff stop procrastinating and get this deal done!
    I want my Yu NOoOOw!
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Astros would do things differently if they had more lockdown closers, but there aren't enough 1-inning relief pitchers that are good for every team. If teams without stacked bullpens want to have someone besides a traditional long man handling some competitive innings, they are going to have to do something that is not traditional bullpen usage.
     
  7. Amshirvani

    Amshirvani Contributing Member

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    ? I loved the trade and thought what we did in the playoffs worked well, thus disagreeing with the claim that our BP is “terrible” and we need a traditional BP. Our BP got us to the playoffs and the starters kind of really took over from there, going against the norm.
     
  8. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

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    So... if the very unlikely happens and we are able to sign Yu, who leaves the rotation? We're currently running CHARLIEMORTON! out there as our number 5 (!) starter... which is insane.

    My guess is we would move McCullers out of the rotation and into the closer role... I think McHugh is already probably on the trade block. Would we have to ship out Peacock as well?
     
  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    It has been over a decade (2206) since the last time at least half the league had a good "setup guy" that averaged more than 1.1 innings/appearances. For me, if something is traditional, at least half the teams in a year have to have someone fill that role at least once in the last decade.
     
  10. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Not sure what you're arguing? The typical bullpen is made up of one or two pitchers who can serve as "long" men. They will tend to pitch when the starter is knocked out early or the game is out of hand (one way or the other). The typical bullpen has a left hander whose job it is to get out that left handed hitter in a clutch situation. The typical bullpen has a closer. The typical bullpen has a couple of guys who tend to pitch the 7th or 8th.

    My opinion is that this type of setup will continue for at least the next 10 years. (at least during the regular season)
     
  11. Jeremy Williams

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    Lockdown closers....

    You mean Kimbrel, Chapman and Jansen?

    Seems like they had their own share of troubles when it counted....
     
  12. conquistador#11

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    what's it like in 2206? do we have real sex bots? asking for a friend.
     
  13. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I think the Astros are still in on Darvish but it's probably a shorter term deal. No way they want to go 5-6 years on Darvish but something like a 4yr/$100mil is probably what the Astros are offering. You can never have enough starters given how often they're hurt, and our backend guys have shown the ability to throw in relief in the postseason. The trend to bring back starters on short rest in the playoffs is no longer trending, so 4 starters in a 7 game series is needed now.

    However, if we do sign Darvish it's a clear sign Keuchel is gone next year.
     
  14. sealclubber1016

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    I don't think Luhnow operates in such absolutes.

    While I like most people highly doubt DK is here beyond this season, if for whatever reason the market is depressed and Luhnow thinks DK's likely value is worth a big contract he will pull the trigger. As of now, only the injury prone LMJ and Peacock are under team control beyond 2019, so we still have a pitching gulf in few years even with adding Cole.
     
  15. Jeremy Williams

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    Plenty of time to add replacements before then--through farm development, trades and free agency.
     
  16. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Ludnow operates more in absolutes than most GMs. He doesn't sign long term FA contracts. He trades for players locked up for multiple years. He hates giving up top prospects (Verlander trade being the lone exception and supposedly he needed to be talked into it). And overall operates on risk aversion.

    It still remains to be seen what he will do when our young player reach FA. But honestly among Springer, Altuve, and Keuchel do you really expect him shelling out the money for DK over the other two guys? If the Astros have money they're not spending it on Keuchel short of him returning to full Cy Young form for an entire, healthy season.
     
  17. sealclubber1016

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    I expect Luhnow to do what he needs to do to make sure our pitching staff doesn't fall apart over the next 3 years. The greatest lineup in the world won't win s**t if our pitching sucks. One of the great benefits of the Cole trade is that it gives us a buffer to let Whitley,Martes and the other arms develop, which is obviously the ideal scenario. replacing guys with in house cheap options.

    But losing Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, Morton and McHugh over a 2 year stretch isn't gonna be a simple thing to overcome. We are unlikely to do so by just using cheap prospects and trades.
     
  18. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    That's what we've been doing until today and what has worked for Ludnow. Whitley and Bukauskas are still coming up. There will be more Gerrit Coles and Sonny Grays in the future that are typical Ludnow buys for the 3 year pitching window you mentioned. And if the Astros are as smart as people say they are, they'll find Brad Peacocks and Charlie Mortons.

    Edit: As Morey aptly put it, you want to be the team that finds Chandler Parsons, not the team that pays for him.
     
  19. sealclubber1016

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    We had years to build up a crazy deep farm that allowed us to make these trades. The farm isn't a reservoir that will stay consistently filled, particularly now that we are good.And it hasn't really "worked". It worked for one season, a season we have been slowly building up to for years.

    A 29 year old AAA player figuring it out suddenly, a career journeyman that we discovered can throw 98, and an over the hill ace that the entire league passed on a month earlier turning back the clock. Luhnow isn't a god, it's not realistic to expect him to keep pulling these cards out yearly.

    This is all suggesting a I think we will keep DK, which I don't. I just don't think it will be as simple as Martes and Whitley are aces, and we'll just find some other studs real cheap, and trade our spare prospects for Cy Young candidates.
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The typical bullpen over the last decade before 2017 has not had someone that was good (at least 1 WAR in relief), that routinely pitched more than an inning (>1.1 inning/appearance), and that was deployed as needed instead of in rigid roles such as a 7th-inning setup guy, an 8th-inning setup guy, or a closer. 2017 had several of these guys that did not follow how long men, closers, guys who tend to pitch 7th or 8th, and loogies have been utilized over the last decade.

    Devenski was not a setup man.
     
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