He has willie mays hayes 4 balls this year. it had to be the wind or all that dancing in the off season.
I don't disagree with picking two different numbers that are close together from one season to the next. It seems to me what the OP is pointing out is that he started slow last year as well and it about on the same pace over about the same number of games. Sure, it looks like he broke out of it 4 games earlier last year, but either way he started slow. What would be interesting to me is to see how he has started every ML season. Maybe he starts every season slow like this (a la Bregman, just with better overall numbers), maybe he has started every season slower than the last, or maybe it's somewhere around that 40 game mark every year that he starts to take off.....
He could have made the same point by using his 42 game splits from last year. His start was better last year after 42 games mainly due to better slugging numbers. EDIT: you can google Altuve 2016 game logs to see his breakdown after each game. Substitute the year you want. He was much better to start 2016.
Looking at baseball reference, looks like he had his 2nd best March/April, and is on pace to have one of his worst May's. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes on a rampage and breaks out of it (edit- making up a lot of ground for the month of May) That being said, it looks like May is typically his worst month for some reason. It also suggests that his best BA is on line drives (seems obvious), and so far this year he is hitting the ball harder than last year. To me, it seems like an adjustment may need to occur (you know it will happen, he's too much of a pro) and probably just some statistical variance.
Not sure if data supports this, but I would expect guys that make a lot of contact to do better as the season goes on. Temperature rises for most of the season and balls go farther in the warmer weather. My assumption is that guys hitting the ball more, get aided by the weather more. Though as I said, not really checked this as I expect it isn't too significant (i.e., good batters in August are still going to be good batters in May generally).
Could be the case. I'm just not that worried about Altuve. He goes on little mini slumps every year, and if it weren't for the regression of the bottom half of the order (so far) this year we probably wouldn't even be talking about it. He will adjust if he needs to, but to me it seems like this is just a case of a small sample size that will normalize over the course of a long season. If he were in his 30's I might be more concerned, but he should still be in his prime and he has a long track record of sustained success.
Good article on the Ringer on exactly this topic. Their takeaway was not to be concerned - he's hitting the ball as hard as (or harder than) ever and still being pitched and making contact at roughly the same rates. Shockingly, randomness is a big factor. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/...ros-jose-altuve-home-run-stole-base-struggles
20.5% of Atluve's hits last year were infield hits or bunts. It's not sustainable as he ages. This year 13% of his hits are infield hits or bunts. If he had about the same 20% infield/bunts this year he would be hitting around .329 with around a .380 obp. Those are both above his career averages. The power numbers aren't that concerning to me. He has 9 doubles through 42 games. Last year he had 8. The home runs will come.
I remember similar concerns with Bagwell as he would be prone to get off to slow starts... and then all of a sudden, especially as it started to warm up, you'd start to see him go the other way more... and hit some oppo HR's, and you knew he'd be on the verge of going on a tear.
Or its why he's in the HOF. He played in an era where there were quite a few slugging 1B, and he'd never win any popularity contests on the voting.
Speed decline due to age is my biggest concern over the long haul, but maybe he adjusts to minimize it when he needs to. I remember all those choppers he hit and ran out, almost a staple of his game. This year he seems to be hitting those balls harder, they reach the fielder more quickly, and he can't beat the throw to first. It will all even out over the course of the season. If we are still talking about this by mid June then I'm concerned.
This reads like maybe he is applying a home run swing a higher % of the time. Sadly, it hasn't helped his Home-Run production.
