2019 Draft Thread

Dubious · Apr 22, 2019

17 Houston: Andre Dillard, T, Washington State
PROJECTED TRADE: Houston sends 23rd and 55th picks to Giants for this choice.

No team in the NFL needs a radical upgrade at tackle as much as the Texans. Per Pro Football Focus, the starting Houston tackles last year, Julie’n Davenport and Kendall Lamm, allowed 101 quarterback disruptions (sacks, hits, hurries) on Deshaun Watson, which is downright abominable considering Watson’s one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. Think how many pressures he avoided just by being Deshaun Watson. Dillard’s the top tackle on Houston’s board, from what I hear, and teams think he’s got a chance to be a good left tackle.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/22/nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

23. New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
PROJECTED TRADE: New York gets this pick and No. 55 from Houston for No. 17 overall.

coachbadlee · Apr 22, 2019

Well we are almost there people. I don't know if I should laugh or cry.

gucci888 · Apr 22, 2019

Dubious said: ↑

17 Houston: Andre Dillard, T, Washington State
PROJECTED TRADE: Houston sends 23rd and 55th picks to Giants for this choice.

No team in the NFL needs a radical upgrade at tackle as much as the Texans. Per Pro Football Focus, the starting Houston tackles last year, Julie’n Davenport and Kendall Lamm, allowed 101 quarterback disruptions (sacks, hits, hurries) on Deshaun Watson, which is downright abominable considering Watson’s one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league. Think how many pressures he avoided just by being Deshaun Watson. Dillard’s the top tackle on Houston’s board, from what I hear, and teams think he’s got a chance to be a good left tackle.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/22/nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

23. New York Giants: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
PROJECTED TRADE: New York gets this pick and No. 55 from Houston for No. 17 overall.
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I’m down.

zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

When the Texans brass convenes at NRG Stadium on Thursday evening, there will be a markedly different vibe in their war room than there was during the opening night of last year’s NFL Draft. This time, Houston general manager Brian Gaine will actually have a pick to spend. A year ago, the Texans didn’t make a selection until the third round. Gaine joked that his greatest lesson learned from that draft, his first at the helm, was that "it’s hard to wait for two rounds."

When Houston was finally on the clock, Gaine made a stellar selection. He grabbed safety Justin Reid with the 68th overall pick, and the defensive back out of Stanford highlighted an eight-man draft class that produced solid early returns. Now we’ll see if Gaine, armed with a better set of picks, can find more success.

Gaine believes there is good value in the second round, so don’t be surprised if Houston trades down from the No. 23 overall pick to get another selection in the second round, plus a mid- to late-round selection in this draft or a future one. Houston shipped its fourth-round pick to Denver in a midseason trade for Demaryius Thomas, so perhaps getting back into that round could be part of any trade down the Texans consider.

What about trading up? An early run on offensive tackles or cornerbacks could change Gaine’s mind, but he hasn’t expressed interest in that. "If there’s value on the board and that player is dropping and you had a high value on him and a high grade and you trust your process and that player’s starting to slide down the board, perhaps that’s worth a conversation," Gaine said. "Conservatively speaking, I would always lean more toward accumulating more picks – more at-bats, more volume, more opportunities to take more players."

Positions of need
Offensive linemen — inside, outside, wherever
Two prospects who fit the needs: Washington State OT Andre Dillard (6050, 315 pounds) and Kansas State OG Dalton Risner (6046, 312 pounds)
Brugler’s grade and analysis of Dillard: With wide splits and a quick-strike passing attack, it can be tough to evaluate offensive linemen in WSU’s offense, but Dillard was dominant over his career (allowed only one sack in 2018) and is the highest-graded senior offensive lineman in this class. There are times when he looks defenseless vs. long-armed linemen, but he plays smooth, intellectually sound and will be even better once he improves his hand placement and reach timing. Overall, Dillard is a better pass protector than run blocker right now, but he is a quick-minded player with the light feet and core power to play multiple positions in the NFL, including left tackle. (1st round)
Brugler’s analysis of Risner: Position flexibility is key to his evaluation. He took practice reps at guard and served as the backup center while at right tackle. Risner is smart and plays with outstanding awareness to decipher all the moving parts around him. Although he is consistently in the right position on tape, which helps him combat speed and long-armed defenders, his technical flaws and lower body stiffness will be tougher to mask vs. NFL rushers. Overall, Risner has athletic limitations, but he should carve out a long NFL career due to his intangibles, toughness and versatility in the NFL, projecting best at guard. (2nd round)

Cornerback
"The game’s a matchup game as it relates to playing cornerback," Gaine said at the combine. "We’re playing big receivers, tall receivers. Having a size advantage is always going to be advantageous for any team. There’s some height and there’s some length in this draft." He added: "When you have the perfect balance of, in terms of your depth chart, guys who can play man, guys who can play zone, guys who are quick and fast, guys who can play big guys … you’re ideally more suited to play matchup football."

A prospect who fits the need: Michigan State CB Justin Layne (6016, 192 pounds)
Brugler’s grade and analysis: A converted wide receiver and three-year starter at Michigan State, Layne took a sizeable step with his key-and-diagnose skills this past season, aiding his innate ability to judge and disrupt the catch point. He has the calm feet and athletic movements to shadow routes, but inconsistent footwork forces him to surrender separation at the break point. Overall, Layne needs continued reps at corner to improve his technique and spacing, but he can mirror-and-match from press-coverage and has outstanding ball skills, projecting as an eventual NFL starter.
Click to expand...

zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

Two Sandwiches · Apr 22, 2019

I think the Texans are going to draft Risner and I'll be slightly disappointed. Just a gut feeling.

zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

mikol13 · Apr 22, 2019

coachbadlee said: ↑

Well we are almost there people. I don't know if I should laugh or cry.
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Let’s wait until the picks come in to decide.

red5rocket · Apr 22, 2019

zeeshan2 said: ↑

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Rather trade back for Little

zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

red5rocket · Apr 22, 2019

zeeshan2 said: ↑

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Isaiah Johnson instead of Jordan Brown please

zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

"Josh Rosen will be an abject failure. He will turn on his team, he will be a baby."

"I don’t know if Murray will succeed or not. Steve Keim will be fired by the end of the season if Arizona doesn’t draft Kyler Murray. A Nick Bosa will not change their fortunes."

—Lance Zierlein

More from Zierlein...
"I talked to one team that said every player they talked to, across the board whether they’re name-brand top picks or mid rounders or priority free agents, one of the questions their scouts and personnel guys always ask [prospects] is ‘What team has done the most [pre-draft] work on you do you think?’ and they said it’s incredible how often the answer is, ‘Oh, the Texans, the Texans.’ Every tackle that they talked said the Texans have shown the most interest in them, the Texans have done the most work on them."

zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

This is from a guy from a fantasy football site but

For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.

What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.

So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.

MUST HAVE'S (Success No Matter Where He's Drafted)

Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.

I gotta post a video. Just WOW on this kid. You can literally take ANY game film and watch it and Sanders will do something amazing at some point. In the following video, Sanders will make amazing plays vs Wisconsin at 1:02, 2:44, and 5:20.

1:02 - He is running zone read from inside out. The inside A & B gaps are not there. He waits for blocking to occur outside instead of pushing for yards on a crucial down. He avoids 2 tackles and then hurdles a defender to make sure he secures a 1st down. Wow. This was only a 7 yard gain but it kept the offense on the field for another set of downs. It's plays like this that NFL teams need to improve their defense (yes, improve the defense by keeping the offense on the field).

2:44 - Inside zone. His incredible vision sees an opening about to occur and he makes the cut as it's happening. He finds himself surrounded by 3 defenders (pause it at 3:02) and makes a second cut to the outside to avoid everyone, outrunning defenders to the edge to make a great gain.

5:20 - This is more of a showcase of his vision than anything else. Another zone play, and a lot of RBs would take the easy way by running to the edge which is free and clear of defenders. Sanders is patient and waits for that extra split second for the hole to open up and he hits it hard. Makes another bonus move later on to gain an extra 15 yards after a forced miss tackle. God this guy is good.

==========================================================================

SHOULD BE'S (Success In Any System & Good Coaching)

Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.
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zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

Continued:

==========================================================================

COULD BE'S (Has To Be Drafted To The Right Blocking Scheme)

Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. Maybe his vision is suspect. If that's the case, he'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.

2:07 - Here is a video that makes me doubt him as a runner a little bit. 3rd & 3, this is a straight zone run play. Auburn has 7 in the box vs 6 blockers for 'bama, but the point of the play is to block the guy ahead of you and let the RB pick his spot and outrun to the corner. The WRs are purposely running go routes outside of the DBs to clear the outside. All Jacobs has to do is a pick a side and go, left or right. Inexplicably Jacobs chooses to run INSIDE........ INSIDE!!!!!!!!........ IN-F*&#*NG-SIDE........ and ends up running into his own guys and a pile of others, and fails to convert.

Don't see it? Pause the video at 2:07 and hold down the . key. . is slow motion forward, , is slow motion reverse. If you watch, it seems like he starts to go to the right, like he's made his decision already, but then notices the safety coming down so he decided the best course of action is to cut up the middle..... on a 6v7.... I don't get it.

He made several run plays like this. Dude has skills, which is why I believe he'd be great in a power system because he doesn't have to think, all he has to do is run where the play is designed for him to run. Cleveland switched to that mid-season, which is why Chubb did so well in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes the RB is a product of the system, and sometimes the system is the product of the RB. Jacobs would thrive if he were a product of the system.

SKIP TO 2:07

Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately given the right system. We're had Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a power runner with good quickness. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER, he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. You might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round. EDIT: I've researched a lot more of this guy and had over an hour to watch slow-motion film. I've cooled down a bit as I noticed his vision isn't as great as I once thought. There are times he made suspect decisions and gave up on plays before they developed. His greatest success came on power plays. I still think he can play in any system and is still a good bargain for a late rounder, but he won't be a stud. He's the kind of guy you draft late and then flip for a 1st later on.

Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round. EDIT: Above is the original comment. I've had a chance to look at some more stuff closer up and... ok this guy is impressive. Quick feet, makes people miss, doesn't give up on plays (FAU was down to OU 59-0 and he was still playing hard) good vision, I only saw 1 mistake and that's probably due to the poor blocking he's had to deal with on that team, so when good blocking actually happened, it caught him off guard. He might be my #2 or #3 guy right now.

Alex Barnes (added 3/2) - One of the better receiving backs in the draft, maybe even the best. Good speed, good quickness, patient when he needs to be, explosive when he can be. Knows how to follow his blocks. The issue is that he doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing, but he's also not really bad at any one thing either. He takes what's given to him. His highlights show a lot of long runs where he's untouched, so that's a bad sign. I didn't find any spots in his film where he made people miss at the line of scrimmage, or make small moves to gain an extra 2-3 yards when guys are draped all over him. Kind of a red flag, but a good starting point so far.

Ryquell Armstead (added 3/2) - Powerful downhill runner. Really high motor guy who is good at protecting the ball, has quick feet. Doesn't catch the ball very well, so right now he's only good as the kind of guy who could spell a starter. If a team wants to carry the ball 25-30 times a game, Ryquell could be someone to get the ball for 5-10 of those touches. Maybe even the goal line back?

Jordan Scarlett (added 3/2) - Another back who is good-not-great in any one area. Great feet and good vision, gives him a chance to make the roster and even share some carries with the 1st team offense. Zone runner who is great at protecting the ball. Would fit well in a zone blocking scheme.

LJ Scott (added 3/2) - This might be one of the more intriguing players in the bunch. He lowers his hips very well (hard to find) and has some nifty moves in space. He also follows his blocks very well. I absolutely loved what I saw out of this guy..... HOWEVER...... he had poor vision. Several times in the zone blocking schemes he either wasn't patient enough, or didn't see the interior hole, or exterior lanes, etc. He needs to be coached up in a big way. I wouldn't expect him to be a starter in 2019. He NEEDS to go to a good situation, or he'll fade in irrelevancy.

James Williams (added 3/2) - Great hands out of the backfield, 3:2 ratio on runs to catches. He has great quickness and good vision, didn't sink his hips very well. I didn't like his ability as a between-the-tackles runner, but I very much liked what I saw for his ability to catch out of the backfield. This is a promising 3rd down back who could be a James White type guy. Really depends where he ends up.
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zeeshan2 · Apr 22, 2019

PROBABLY NOT'S (Has Some Talent, Missing Too Many Pieces)

Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season. EDIT: Just watched more. I saw him get DESTROYED by a cornerback in open space... that's not good. His big runs are where he's untouched. I watched him run a sweep that's supposed to go outside, but he chose to cut back inside for ??? reason and he got clobbered by 2 defenders. Oh god, it's so bad. It's all so bad. This guy is fools gold. Yeah, I'm moving him down to the "Probabaly Not" section.

Benny Snell - I wanted to like this guy. I came into the tape rooting for him, and just came away unimpressed. He's a zone runner with good hips, but he doesn't yet have the quickness to make people miss consistently. With good coaching, this guy could be a really good RB in 1-2 years. He's a project pick at best, and he HAS to be picked to a zone running team. He can't catch out of the backfield... so that's bad... he's touched the ball 800 times but only 29 catches.... yikes.

Damien Harris (added 2/27) - I forgot this guy. I had him in my list and glossed over it. Here's what I like: He runs the play that's called and gets what's available to him. Here's what I don't like about Harris: He gets what's available to him. In all his success, the blocking allowed for him to shine. He didn't have to worry much about linemen making a play or linebackers filling a hole. He was able to make some nice moves and nice cuts in open space, but that's not even 5% of a RBs success over time in the NFL. There's more to be desired, so for now he sits in this group. EDIT: Watched more... not impressed. Most of his highlights are untouched runs with great blocking. I watched several game tapes where he simply cannot create space, makes a bad read, looks helpless if the blocking isn't there. This is the kind of guy that could win the starting role in the NFL and has a few good games because of blocking. Everyone loves him and calls me a dope (a-la Jordan Howard, who I warned about several times). This is that guy.

David Montgomery - I've said it before and I'll say it again; This is the most over-rated RB in the last 5 years. He isn't special. He's a power runner with great hands out of the backfield, so that's nice. He doesn't sink his hips, he runs upright, he carries the ball in the same arm no matter which side of the field he's on (so it's always in harms way, but also gives a clue that he's uncoachable). If he's draft to the Ravens and is only asked to run straight forward, yeah he's worth a 1st round pick to some people. Not me, but some people. EDIT: I have no idea why people like him. I just watched more of his film and I can't figure it out. He's slow behind the line, he can't create space, he's so upright.... ugh. When he catches the ball at full speed in open space, yeah he looks pretty good, and that's probably the part people are looking at. But that's not what a RB does. I moved him down to my "Probably Not" category. He's just so bad.

Travis Homer, Qadree Ollison (added 3/2) - Ollison (Not bad, not great. Looked like a product of the system.) Homer (Nice moves here and there, looks good in open space, but god-awful vision. If you're a zone runner and you can't see the holes in the line, then you won't last long)

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DEFINITELY NOT'S (Won't Succeed, No Matter What)

Tony Pollard - He's listed as a RB and showed some great zone skills, but mostly played in the slot or out wide, a-la Nyhiem Hines. I don't know what to make of him yet. He could be good if he went to the right system, but it's too hard to tell atm. I want no part as of now. EDIT: He's not a RB. Gimmicky player. No thanks.

Justice Hill, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams - No. No to all these guys. They are zone runners without the tools necessary to be zone runners. Dexter Williams in particular I think is the worst of this group. He has no skills, just runs fast, then brags like he's the greatest to ever play the game. He's going to get a wake up call. Bryce Love is also a speed guy and nothing more. Speed guys can be successful at the college level, but are almost never successful at the NFL level.

Rodney Anderson - I have to give this guy his own segment since so many people are clamoring for him. I don't get it, either. He's had 3 season-ending injuries in 4 years as a college athlete. He follows his blocks and gets what is given to him. He doesn't create space. He sometimes carries the ball in the wrong hand. Did I mention that he gets hurt all the time? He runs like he has popsicle sticks for legs. What is there to like?

Trayveon Williams - The only power runner at the bottom of this list. He could be something like a Jeremy Langford. He'll show a spark and be worth a 1st rounder real quick, but then fizzle out and disappear. Worth a late flyer just for the sake of trading him later.

Mike Weber, Nick Brossette, Alex Mattison, Karan Higdon, Jalin Moore (added 3/2) - Moore (terrible decisions, bad vision, can't catch) Higdon (Can't catch, played in a well-coached system to make him look better than he is) Mattison (Probably should have stayed in college 1 more year. Very raw, won't excel in the NFL unless he's coached up a TON, I don't see it) Brossette (Powerful runner but only gets what's given to him. Not a starter) Mike Weber (Gets what is given to him and nothing more, product of a system)
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forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=178590&sid=79c2c99ad1a71ca84e80084bb9326449

gucci888 · Apr 22, 2019

zeeshan2 said: ↑

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Trade Clowney for a 1st to get Dillard or Williams, then Sweat at #23.

J.R. · Apr 22, 2019

coachbadlee said: ↑

Well we are almost there people. I don't know if I should laugh or cry.
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You should laugh to stop yourself from crying.

Nimo · Apr 22, 2019

Ottomaton · Apr 22, 2019

I'm intrigued as to why Chauncey Gardner-Johnson isn't on Texans' fan radar. He seems like the perfect Honey Badger sized peg for a Honey Badger sized hole. Good safety size and strength, great athlete (4.48 40), and he is as comfortable playing deep center-field as he is manning up on slot receivers, blitzing the QB, or playing in the box to stuff the run. He seems like a guy who would plug right into that 3rd safety hole and give them back everything that they just so traumatically lost.

Ottomaton · Apr 22, 2019

zeeshan2 said: ↑

This is from a guy from a fantasy football site but
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Jordan Scarlett is a legit criminal. He was part of a ring involved in running fraudulent charges to credit cards, and only avoided a felony by entering a first time offender diversion program. I'm entirely confident he isn't on the Texans' radar.

I get why he doesn't like Montgomery, but the guy it awesome to watch - he is pretty much a weebel wobble who takes a ton of hits and just doesn't fall over. I have no great hopes for him in the NFL, but I'm rooting for him. Another guy like that (who doesn't even make this guy's list) is Devin Singletary, who runs is 5'6" 203lbs, runs a 4.66 40, runs up the middle like he is Jerome Bettis. He's going to get murdered in the NFL, but I've seen him described as an "artist" which I'd normally dismiss as so much hyperbole but which for him is actually true. His shudders, changes of direction, and hesitations to make people miss are unexpected and make defenders look foolish. Not saying he's in the same category, but back in the day you could sometimes watch Barry Sanders run for a one yard gain and it would be the most memorable play of the game.

There are some guys who you are pretty sure don't have much of future in the NFL like Singeltary and Montgomery, but you still root for them because they make the game fun to watch.

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