Know its early, but who stays and for how much, who goes? Dallas Keuchel Charlie Morton Marwin Gonzalez Evan Gattis
In order of likelihood with my %: Morton (40%), Marwin (33%), Keuchel (10%), Gattis (5%). My guess for what each guy will get in free agency: Keuchel: $78M/4yr plus $23M team option or $4M buyout Marwin: $43M/3yr Morton: $16M/1yr plus $20M mutual option Gattis: $7M/1yr McCann: $7M/1yr Sipp: $3M/1yr
That seems awful aggressive for Keuchel based upon 5 things: 1) still not a ton of teams in the competitive part of their success cycle 2) front offices are getting more saber inclined and you have guys like Bill James who say extreme GB guys age in dog years 3) I’d assume a QO is attached 4) pretty solid market of pitchers likely to be available this off season 5) health questions and crappy season. I’ve been watching in detached bemusement DK screw up his walk year. I am almost at the point in wondering if his market value isn’t so tanked that he might consider a QO. Like, I’m wondering if he finds any offers above 3/46 or something like that. Sometimes I’m really good at this game and sometimes I suck. Morton could get 2 or 3 years if he ends the season healthy but hell, he’s talking retirement so he just might not want that. With my 3/48 guess for him we are obviously on the same page. If Sipp finishes like he has now he might be in the $5,000,000 range, if he finishes like last year he might be a NRI. Gattis has very little value outside of DH. 1/7 seems reasonable but who has a need trying to win? McCan doesn’t make sense to me anywhere trying to win as a starter. I’d think he could get 2 or 3 years on short money to be the short end of a rotation somewhere where they like their regular and want a seasoned hand. I’m going to say 3/15 as I don’t think most quality teams want to move off catcher. I’d go 3/36 for Marwin. Then again, I’ve never been a Marwin guy so that might be clouding my judgment. Hope somebody bookmarks this and bumps on 1/1/19 so I can laugh at myself
Only free agent I think theres a decent chance of coming back is Morton. Somebody will likely offer DK more than we are willing to, and we will replace Gattis, Marwin and McCann with cheaper prospects.
Morton is the most likely to come back, all the others go. Would like to see Marwin stay, he's one of the longest-tenured Astros, and I really like him, but I doubt he comes back. He is the second-most likely to return, all others will be gone. BTW, does the team pick up Harris's option? Not too sure given how shaky he's been so far this year.
Not trying to be an ass but where/how do you come up with stuff like the estimated amount of the buyout of a club option?
This is close to my own thinking. Marwin will get paid and I suspect have many suitors. 4 years are more likely. Gattis should get a multiyear deal. Morton if he wants the $$$ will sign a 3 year deal with crazy $$$. If he wants to stay with the Astros, he might take a 2 year deal like you mentioned but front loaded with more money.
Pull it out of my ass / Just looking at similar players who have signed recently. A lot of deals end up having team or player options, probably the majority of them have one or the other. The best free agent comps I could find for each of Houston’s pending free agents: Keuchel: Jake Arrieta ($75M/3yr plus 2 options) Marwin:Ben Zobrist ($56M/4yr) Morton:Rich Hill ($48M/3yr) Gattis: Logan Morrison ($6.5M/1yr plus option) McCann: Jonathan Lucroy ($6.5M/1yr) Sipp: Bud Norris ($3M/1yr) Morton is the only one I could see taking a significant discount to stay in Houston, plus I don’t think he wants to pitch more than 2 more seasons, so that’s why I predicted a smaller deal for him. Marwins best comp is Zobrist but I don’t think he will be quite as highly thought of. I could see Gattis getting a vesting option.
Morton is a complete mystery to me. Assuming he finishes this season strong, even if it's only 150 innings again, he could get 30-40 million on a 2/3 year deal without his agent even having to work hard. I'm not sure just how much he is serious about not wanting to play much longer, and how much of a discount he would be willing to give the Astros. He could literally double his career earnings on the open market. It's easy to say one thing, but when those offers come in it's another story. Given his age, nobody is gonna offer a long term deal (if he even wants one) and I'm sure the Astros would love to have him back. So it makes a ton of sense that he is the most likely to be retained. Having said that, I highly doubt we would be willing to go beyond a 2 year deal, a loaded one year may be more likely. Our pitching beyond 2019 is very cloudy right now
Morton: Astros will make a 2 yr offer but someone will offer 3 or 4 and he’ll have to take it. Keuchel: totally up to him. If the crappy season continues, I can see the Astros letting him walk, especially with what’s waiting in the wings. The attitude isn’t keeping up with the production. Marvin: I think they’ll keep him on a 3/36 like deal. Gattis: likely gone. As great as he’s playing right now, the team can improve on this position and need someone more consistent. McCann: gone. Love him for his contributions to last year and this...but Stassi has earned more time and/or they go after a Realmuto.
McCann retires after his third world series championship with the stros, devotes full time to his charity and joins espn broadcast on the weekends. Marwin goes to Boston and reunites with JD, miss that guy. Dallas goes to the Rangers. Eww. They blew every other offer out of the water. Morton stays here for a discount &eventually becomes the non closing closer in close situations. adds 12 mph to his fastball after a freak injury in the off-season.
I still have a feeling the Yankees covet Dallas the most. He was their daddy the past three years until the second game against them in the playoffs. No one beats the Yankees that many times in high leverage situations without the Yankees throwing a fat contract at him afterwards. Morton I agree will end up being a 3yr/14M per type deal to stay with us. Only Strom can unlock his potential. Marwin and Gattis unfortunately will end up going because our farm system is CONSTIPATED right now. Gotta see what Reed, Davis, White, and our other AAAA guys have to offer before we lose them for good. We lose a ton of position versatility, but even without him now we have capable backups at every position on the 25-man with Yuli/Reed at 1B, Altuve/Kemp at 2B, Correa/Bregman at SS, and Bregman/Davis at 3B. I believe someone throws at least a 4yr 56M offer Marwin's way.
Sadly, my best guess is that all of them are gone. If the current Astros are a dynasty (let's say, 2017 - 2023 of being in strong contention), my guess is that 2019 is the weakest year of the bunch. Keuchel, Morton, Gattis, McCann and Marwin are all above average major league talent, and losing 5 guys like that is just really tough. The replacements are Whitley (for Keuchel), Tucker (for Marwin), Alvarez (for Gattis), Stubbs (for McCann) and Perez/Martes/Paulino/Martin (for Martin). Those are actually great talent replacements, but all so young and a couple will probably bust, while a couple more will take a few years to find their footing. That's why I'm a strong proponent of trading for guys like Abreu, Realmuto, even Archer - talented players that will be on the team next year.
Correct me if I'm wrong - Correa - Big extension starts 2022 Bregman - big extension starts 2023 Springer - big extension starts 2021 The Astros can go for high $, 3 year and under contracts until then. Or they may try to take in profits now before the extensions kick in and 1 of the big 4 leave. I would like to see the revenue numbers of the Astros now that they are contenders - other leagues like the EPL release this info to the public every year. It also includes a breakdown of cash from ticket sales, sponsorships, merchandising and media rights.
I don't see how anyone thinks Keuchel is getting paid that much. He'll be 31, will have had ongoing injury concerns for 3 years (but no major surgery), significant inconsistency over the past 3 years, a much higher FIP vs. ERA in his 1 good year of the last 3--and let's see if he breaks 170 innings this year (because he hasn't in the last 2). I can't see anyone spending the kind of dollars that are being throw around. I'd offer him a 3-4 yera deal at like $10-12 per, otherwise wait him out for a 1-2 year deal for more
It will depend on how he does against marquee opposition, can he establish control and execute? Right now, he easily commands a 3 year, 45 mil deal.
I personally wouldn’t go over $64M/4yr for Keuchel. But some team will look at the Cy Young season, the ring, the fact that he’s a lefty, and they’ll give him at least $80M, assuming he stays healthy and moderately effective the rest of this season.
He's going to have to go on a major extended run of consistency to sniff more than 3 years. Teams are just too smart now.... or the ones that are in no business to contend will refuse to sign players just to put fans in the seats.
