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2018 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Nov 12, 2017.

  1. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    The Forrest Whitley hype train is moving along at hyper speed. Absolutely cannot wait to see what he does this season. Just thinking about his potential as our future ace is something else.

     
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  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    While I don't think he'll be ready to pitch starter innings this year in majors, it would not surprise me if he is viewed as a guy that could be like McCullers, Morton, or Peacock in the postseason.
     
  3. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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  4. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    *Major spoilers ahead for those who haven't gotten their copy yet*

    Here's how the Astros stack up in the latest iteration of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.

    Houston ranked #11 in the organizational talent rankings section, down from #4 in 2017.

    Position Rankings

    Obviously, the top prospects (in BA's opinion) in baseball at each spot on the diamond.

    Yordan Alvarez: #2 1B (#1: Jake Bauers)
    Kyle Tucker: #2 corner OF (#1: Eloy Jimenez)
    Forrest Whitley: #7 RHP (40 ranked, #1: Shohei)
    J.B. Bukauskas: #39 RHP

    Sadly, they did away with personal top 50 lists this year.

    2017 Draft Analysis

    Best pure hitter: J.J. Matijevic
    Best power hitter: Jake Adams
    Fastest baserunner: Jake Meyers
    Best defensive player: Mike Papierski
    Best fastball: Kyle Serrano (97-98 "in short stints"), Corbin Martin (90-96, "does a better job of locating")
    Best secondary pitch: J.B. Bukauskas' slider ("consistent 70 grades")
    Best pro debut: Brandon Bielak
    Best athlete: Joe Perez and Corey Julks
    Most intriguing background: Cole Watts (31st round)
    - Watts attended San Diego State for two years without playing baseball before giving it another shot
    Closest to the majors: Bukauskas
    Best late-round pick: Josh Rojas
    The one who got away: Marty Costes (OF, 25th round from Maryland)

    Best Tools

    Best pure hitter: Kyle Tucker
    Best power hitter: Yordan Alvarez
    Fastest baserunner: Myles Straw
    Best strike-zone discipline: Straw
    Best Athlete: Alvarez
    Best Fastball: Jorge Alcala
    Best Curveball: Framber Valdez
    Best Slider: Forrest Whitley
    Best Changeup: Whitley
    Best Control: Rogelio Armenteros
    Best Defensive Catcher: Garrett Stubbs
    Best Defensive Infielder: Freudis Nova
    Best Infield Arm: J.D. Davis
    Best Defensive Outfielder: Gilberto Celestino
    Best Outfield Arm: Straw

    Projected 2021 Lineup

    C: Garrett Stubbs
    1B: Yordan Alvarez
    2B: Jose Altuve
    3B: Alex Bregman
    SS: Carlos Correa
    LF: Derek Fisher
    CF: George Springer
    RF: Kyle Tucker
    SP1: Forrest Whitley
    SP2: Lance McCullers
    SP3: Justin Verlander
    SP4: Dallas Keuchel
    SP5: J.B. Bukauskas
    Closer: Jorge Alcala

    Houston Astros Top 30 Prospects, as rated by Baseball America, with grades and risk factor

    I'll also throw in their ages (read as: whatever age they are for the majority of the 2018 season) for the 2018 season and the highest affiliate they played with in 2017.

    BA debuted a new risk grade, "Very High," for "recent draft picks with a limited track record of success or injury issues." It's slotted in between "High" and "Extreme." They also have tool grades for everyone in the top 10.

    Top 2018 rookie: Forrest Whitley
    Breakout prospect: Gilberto Celestino
    Sleeper: RHP Luis Garcia (see below)

    (Colin Moran and Jason Martin are still in the book, I'm still including them in the list anyway because you're still gonna see them in the Astros section)

    31. (if ordered through Baseball America) Luis Garcia, RHP, 50/Extreme; age 21 (DOB December 13, 1996), DSL Blue
    30. Miguelangel Sierra, SS, 45/Extreme; age 20 (DOB December 2, 1997), Tri-City
    29. Elián Rodriguez, RHP, 45/Extreme; age 21 (DOB March 10, 1997), DSL Orange
    28. Jandel Gustave, RHP, 45/Extreme; age 25 (DOB October 12, 1992), Houston
    27. Riley Ferrell, RHP, 45/High; age 24 (DOB October 18, 1993), Corpus Christi
    26. J.J. Matijevic, OF, 45/High; age 22 (DOB November 14, 1995), Quad Cities
    25. Cristian Javier, RHP, 45/High; age 21 (DOB March 26, 1997), Buies Creek
    24. A.J. Reed, 1B, 45/High; age 25 (DOB May 10, 1993), Fresno
    23. Jonathan Arauz, SS, 50/Extreme; age 19 (DOB August 3, 1998), Quad Cities
    22. Dean Deetz, RHP, 40/Medium; age 24 (DOB November 29, 1993), Fresno
    21. Ronnie Dawson, OF, 50/High; age 23 (DOB May 18, 1995), Buies Creek
    20. Gilberto Celestino, OF, 50/High; age 19 (DOB February 13, 1999), Greeneville
    19. Jason Martin, OF, 45/Medium; age 22 (DOB September 5, 1995), Corpus Christi (happy trails)
    18. Garrett Stubbs, C, 45/Medium; age 25 (DOB May 26, 1993), Fresno
    17. Myles Straw, OF, 45/Medium; age 23 (DOB October 17, 1994), Corpus Christi
    16. Corbin Martin, RHP, 50/High; age 22 (DOB December 28, 1995), Tri-City
    15. Joe Perez, 3B, 55/Extreme; age 18 (DOB August 12, 1999), did not play
    14. Framber Valdez, LHP, 50/High; age 24 (DOB November 19, 1993), Corpus Christi
    13. Cionel Perez, LHP, 50/High; age 22 (DOB April 21, 1996), Corpus Christi
    12. Rogelio Armenteros, RHP, 45/Medium; age 23/24 (DOB June 30, 1994), Fresno
    11. J.D. Davis, 3B/occasional RHP, 45/Medium; age 25 (DOB April 27, 1993), Houston

    Now the top 10...

    10. David Paulino, RHP, 55/Extreme; age 24 (DOB February 6, 1994), Houston

    Grades: 60 fastball, 60 curve, 55 changeup, 45 control

    9. Colin Moran, 3B, 45/Medium; age 25 (DOB October 1, 1992), Houston

    Grades: 50 hit, 55 power, 30 speed, 45 fielding, 60 arm

    8. Jorge Alcala, RHP, 50/High; age 22/23 (DOB July 28, 1995), Buies Creek

    Grades: 80 fastball, 40 slider, 40 changeup, 40 control

    7. Hector Perez, RHP, 50/High; age 21/22 (DOB June 6, 1996), Buies Creek

    Grades: 70 fastball, 40 curveball, 45 slider, 60 changeup, 40 control

    6. Jairo Solis, RHP, 55/Extreme; age 18 (DOB December 22, 1999), Greeneville

    Grades: 55 fastball, 55 slider, 50 changeup, 55 control

    5. Freudis Nova, SS, 55/Extreme, age 18 (born January 12, 2000), DSL Orange

    Grades: 55 hit, 50 power, 60 speed, 55 fielding, 60 arm

    4. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, 55/High, age 21 (DOB October 11, 1996), Tri-City

    Grades: 60 fastball, 70 slider, 45 changeup, 50 control

    3. Yordan Alvarez, 1B/OF, 60/High; age 20/21 (DOB June 27, 1997), Buies Creek

    Grades: 55 hit, 60 power, 50 speed, 50 fielding, 45 arm

    2. Kyle Tucker, OF, 60//Medium; age 21 (DOB January 17, 1997), Corpus Christi

    Grades: 60 hit, 60 power, 50 speed, 55 fielding, 50 arm

    1. Forrest Whitley, RHP, 65/High; age 20 (DOB September 15, 1997), Corpus Christi

    Grades: 70 fastball, 60 curveball, 60 slider, 55 changeup, 50 cutter, 55 control
     
    #244 tellitlikeitis, Feb 15, 2018
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2018
  5. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    Was cutting it close to the character limit...

    Breakdown/Changes from 2017

    26 homegrown, 4 acquired (all 4 acquired via trade)

    Of the 26 homegrown players...

    - 9 came from four-year schools
    - 2 from JUCO
    - 4 from high school
    - 12 international free agents

    13 RHP (Whitley, Bukauskas, Hector Perez, Solis, Paulino, Armenteros, Javier, Alcala, Martin, Deetz, Ferrell, Gustave, Elian Rodriguez)
    4 LF (Alvarez, Dawson, Matijevic, Martin)
    3 3B (Moran, Davis, Joe Perez)
    3 SS (Freudis, Arauz, Sierra)
    2 LHP (Framber and Cionel)
    2 RF (Tucker and Straw)
    1 C (Stubbs)
    1 1B (Reed)
    1 CF (Celestino)

    20-80 Grades

    1 65 (Whitley)
    2 60 (Alvarez and Tucker)
    5 55 (Bukauskas, Nova, Solis, Paulino, Joe Perez)
    8 50 (Hector Perez, Alcala, Cionel, Framber, Corbin Martin, Celestino, Dawson, Arauz)
    12 45 (Davis, Armenteros, Straw, Stubbs, Jason Martin, Reed, Javier, Matijevic, Ferrell, Gustave, Elian Rodriguez, Sierra
    1 40 (Deetz)

    Risk Grades

    14 high
    8 extreme
    8 medium

    Oldest: Colin Moran (10/1/92)
    Youngest: Freudis Nova (1/12/00)

    Biggest rise (for someone who has already been featured in the book): Whitley (#6 in 2017, #1 in 2018)
    Biggest drop (dropped out entirely): Trent Thornton (#21 in 2017)
    Biggest drop (still in book): Miguelangel Sierra (#11 in 2017, #30 in 2018)

    New entries: Bukauskas, Nova, Solis, Alcala, Cionel, Framber, Joe Perez, Corbin Martin, Straw, Jason Martin, Dawson, Deetz, Javier, Matijevic, Elian Rodriguez

    Dropouts: Trent Thornton (#21 in 2017), Brady Rodgers (#22), Lupe Chavez (#25), Tony Kemp (#27), Jose Luis Hernandez (#29)

    Re-entries: Ferrell (#20 in 2016)

    Graduations: Francis Martes (#1), Teoscar Hernandez (#7; graduated with Toronto), Yuli (#8), Derek Fisher (#9), James Hoyt (#23)

    Traded: Franklin Perez (#4), Moran (#9 but still in Astros section), Ramon Laureano (#13), Daz Cameron (#14), Jason Martin (#19, see Moran), Jake Rogers (#20)

    Former Astros Prospects in the Handbook

    Chris Lee - #10 in Orioles system
    Franklin Perez - #1 in Tigers system
    Jake Rogers - #5 in Tigers system
    Daz Cameron - #6 in Tigers system
    Jorge Guzman - #2 in Marlins system
    Brett Phillips - #7 in Brewers system
    Jake Nottingham - #23 in Brewers system
    Adrian Houser - listed in bonus supplement for the Brewers
    Albert Abreu - #6 in Yankees system
    Ramon Laureano - #30 in A's system
    Thomas Eshelman - #27 in Phillies system
     
  6. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    My goodness. This kid is going to be a stud.

     
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I took a few hours this weekend to pull advanced 2017 MiLB stats from Fangraphs and do some analysis. I ended up re-ranking and re-grading all the prospects in the system after creating a model that incorporates those stats and a couple of other factors I think are most important in predicting a prospect’s success.

    For position player prospects, I used Bonus Amount, Age Relative to League, defensive position (with either plus or not), K %, BB%, ISO, and SB/150. I limited the model to using stats for players who had at least 140 PA at a level. I converted each of those to a standard value (with different weights applied) so they add up to a potential max of 80, with the goal being to generate a grade that could be compared to the way most prospect sites do it. I did the same thing for pitching prospects, instead using Bonus Amount, Age Relative to League, K%, BB%, and HR/9, and limiting to levels where a pitcher threw at least 30 innings. The results were interesting to me. They aligned very closely with the industry consensus, with Forrest Whitley (grade 60), Franklin Perez (50), and Rogelio Armenteros (50) topping the pitching prospects list and Kyle Tucker (60), Daz Cameron (60), and Derek Fisher (55) topping the position player list. Rather than rehash that those prospects are good, I will instead highlight some things I noticed that bucked the industry consensus.

    Position Players the fared better than expected:

    Jonathan Arauz was graded very highly by this model (grade 55, 3rd in the system for position players). He has ability to play the middle infield, he’s been very young for his league, he rarely strikes out, and he can draw walks. He does not show speed as a tool and he does not hit for power. But given his age, the power may come. I was not as high on Arauz as some public sites who have ranked him in the top 20 in the system, but this changed my mind.

    Freudis Nova also received a 55 grade. This should be discounted, as my model applied the same weight to DSL statistics as every other level, so players who hit well in the DSL (especially 17 year olds who received large bonuses) are probably overrated. However, Nova sports plus defense at SS, decent bb/k rates, and was one of the largest bonus recipients in the 2016 class. He’s probably more of a 50 grade prospect, but certainly I can see why BA had him in the top 10. Other DSL middle infielders who fared well in this model are Yorbin Cueta (50), Deury Carrasco (50), Ramiro Rodriguez, Jose Alvarez, and Ronaldo Urdaneta (all 45s).

    The other grade 50 prospects were Myles Straw, Abraham Toro-Hernandez, and Jake Rogers. Other grade 45 prospects were Mike Papierski, Colin Moran, Yordan Alvarez, and Kristian Trompiz. Interestingly, Toro would be a grade 60 prospect if he received a plus defensive rating at catcher (instead of at 3B). Papierski had a tremendous walk rate, which along with his defensive value at catcher and his power left him as the top rated catching prospect in the system. Trompiz benefitted from a low strikeout rate, ability to play SS, and ability to steal bases. He’s been inconsistent but outside of a total lack of power, he’s a actually a pretty high ceiling prospect.

    Position players who fared worse than expected:

    Gilberto Celestino only received a 40 grade due to middling numbers in a league in which he was only slightly younger than average. A good showing in full season A ball this year would give him a huge boost.

    JD Davis received a 30 grade because he was old for AA, struck out quite a bit, has only average defensive value, didn’t have a high walk rate, and doesn’t have speed on his side. I suspect he will get a big boost when he rakes in AAA this season.

    JJ Matijevic also received a 30 grade due to his weak performance in low A. A 27% strikeout rate combined with low defensive value doomed him. If he rakes in full season ball, he will get a huge boost, especially if he is able to play 2B.

    Pitchers who fared better than expected:

    Patrick Sandoval received a 55 grade after throwing 40 good innings in A ball as a 20 year old. He benefitted from a large bonus, being young for his league, a high strikeout rate (10.8/9), and avoiding HR. He should probably be the top sleeper pick among pitching prospects entering 2018.

    Alex Winkelman’s dominant performance in High A earned him a 50 grade. He maxed out his value for ability to get strikeouts while almost maxing out in avoiding walks and HR. He’ll be one to watch in Corpus this season.

    Yoanys Quiala received a grade 45, 9th among pitching prospects. He was extremely good in High A with almost 5 times as many K’s as walks. That combined with his relatively large bonus makes him one to watch in AA this season. Riley Ferrell and Cionel Perez both received 50 grades, while Dean Deetz received a 45 grade.

    Pitching prospects who fared worse than expected:

    Hector Perez received an awful grade of 25. He was heavily penalized for allowing almost 7 walks per 9 IP. He also was not a bonus recipient. I actually don’t disagree with the evaluation because if he can’t exhibit better control he will not even make ti as a big league reliever. However, he should be noted as an extremely high ceiling prospect since it wouldn’t be unheard of for him to improve dramatically in that regard, at which point he would be a potential top of the rotation arm.

    Francis Martes is in the same boat as Perez; his 7.79 bb/9 in AAA doomed him. He has the same upside as Perez and certainly is underrated by my model.

    Jorge Alcala also received a low grade (20). He was dinged for his middling High A #s.

    The 30 IP cutoff removed quite a few guys from the list. Top draft picks JB Bukauskas and Corbin Martin weren’t graded. David Paulino missed the cut as well. Lowering the cutoff to 20 IP gives Martin a 50 grade, so all 3 of those guys should still be highly rated. Brett Adcock and Brandon Bielak receive 55 grades if the threshold is lowered to 20 IP. Adcock dominated in QC and Bielak in TC. Both are breakout candidates this coming season. Jairo Solis and Nivaldo Rodriguez receive 45 grades under the lower cutoff. Solis may be the biggest breakout candidate in the pitching side of the farm.

    And now, some lists.


    Top 10 guys with the best chance to enter Top 100 lists at season’s end:

    1. Abraham Toro-Hernandez

    2. Jairo Solis

    3. Myles Straw

    4. Corbin Martin

    5. Cionel Perez

    6. Freudis Nova

    7. Patrick Sandoval

    8. Cristian Javier

    9. Michael Papierski

    10. Gilberto Celestino

    25 Man All Prospect Team:

    C Papierski

    1B Sean Mendoza

    2B Arauz

    SS Nova

    3B Toro-Hernandez

    RF Tucker

    CF Straw

    LF Alvarez

    HM/Bench: Cueta, Joe Perez, Nathan Perry, Rodriguez, Ronnie Dawson

    Rotation: Whitley, Bukauskas, Martin, Solis, C Perez

    HM/Bullpen: Bielak, Sandoval, Armenteros, Adcock, Deetz, Quiala, Javier, Paulino

    Revised Top 30 Astros Prospects for 2018:

    1. RHP Forrest Whitley

    2. OF Kyle Tucker

    3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez

    4. RHP JB Bukauskas

    5. IF Freudis Nova

    6. RHP Jairo Solis

    7. LHP Cionel Perez

    8. RHP David Paulino

    9. RHP Corbin Martin

    10. IF Jonathan Arauz

    11. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez

    12. OF Myles Straw

    13. OF Gilberto Celestino

    14. 3B Joe Perez

    15. LHP Brett Adcock

    16. RHP Rogelio Armenteros

    17. LHP Patrick Sandoval

    18. OF Ronnie Dawson

    19. 3B JD Davis

    20. RHP Riley Ferrell

    21. RHP Hector Perez

    22. RHP Jorge Alcala

    23. C Michael Papierski

    24. IF MiguelAngel Sierra

    25. C Garrett Stubbs

    26. OF/IF JJ Matijevic

    27. RHP Dean Deetz

    28. RHP Brandon Bielak

    29. IF Yorbin Cueta

    30. RHP Yoanys Quiala

    Honorable Mention: IF Deury Carrasco, OF Ramiro Rodriguez, C Nathan Perry, C Jose Alvarez, IF Ronaldo Urdaneta, SS Kristian Trompiz, LHP Alex Winkelman, RHP Nivaldo Rodriguez, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Nick Hernandez
     
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  8. Buck Turgidson

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    Yep. I wish yall could have seen him when he was 17/18.
     
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  9. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

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    Who has more potential, him or Martes?
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Easily Whitley. Whitley has a chance to be as good as they get. Martes has ToR potential but it’s not really close imho.
     
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  11. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    I always pride myself in thinking I’m at the top in regards to knowing the ins and outs of baseball. Then I read this. Nice little piece of humble pie to get me going this am. Great post.
     
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  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    What’s insane is that this work I did is utter rubbish compared to what the folks in the media (like fangraphs and Baseball America) do, much less compared to what the actual organizations are doing. I’d give my left arm to be able to sit in Mike Fast’s office for a few weeks, but I also know the analysis they do would be beyond my comprehension.
     
  13. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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  14. sealclubber1016

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    That's cool and all, but lets not have too many of those in February.
     
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  15. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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  16. dwood21

    dwood21 Member

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    That's very disappointing
     
  17. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    Snake Diggit and Joe Joe like this.
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Snake Diggit likes this.
  19. moonsh0t

    moonsh0t Member

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    Yea, that's a bit terrifying. Max effort weight room style bullpen sessions are something I would STRONGLY discourage.
     
  20. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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