Been paying close attention to this since yesterday morning. All of the models have shifted towards Texas. It will be a busy week at the NHC and all meteorologists offices around. Things could get really ugly in regards to flooding. The Euro has over 30" of rain for us this weekend...
30" of rain? Seems like the upper end of heaviest rain predictions is 10" to 14" which is still too freaking much for Houston. Hopefully scattered thunderstorms here.
Lol. Yes it would and the trend continues. Here is the latest ECMWF run.. Just incredible amounts of rain.
Spoiler ________________________________________________ https://spacecityweather.com/yeah-this-weekend-is-looking-wet-for-texas/ The forecast models suggest the storm will then move toward the northwest, and come ashore somewhere on Friday(ish) between Brownsville, at the southern end of Texas, and Freeport, which is just down the coast from Galveston. This afternoon, NOAA’s G-IV Hurricane Hunter Jet will fly around the remnants of Harvey, and this should provide useful information that will improve forecast model output tonight, and especially on Wednesday. But frankly, our biggest concern is not where undead Harvey makes landfall (rain, not winds, are most likely the primary threat here), but rather what happens after the storm moves inland. This is because the upper-air pattern later this week and weekend is such that there will be little to steer the movement of the system, and therefore it may wobble around. When you have a tropical system near the warm, moist Gulf of Mexico, this is a bad thing because it means rainfall. Potentially a lot of rainfall. For example, here’s a plot I made of the tropical low locations forecast by the 12z GFS model, which brings a tropical storm near the Texas coast on Friday. And then, well, here you go: Spoiler I post this not because you should take the track above as gospel—it is far from it. Rather, the model is illustrative of the fact that this is a tropical system that could very well move inland into Texas somewhere along the coast, more or less stall, and drop 10 to 15 inches of rain (or more) on someone’s head over a two or three day period. Widespread areas may see 4 to 8 inches. I’m not saying this is a repeat of Tropical Storm Allison, as that would be irresponsible. But these kinds of slow moving systems are the ones that often produce widespread flooding. The next question is, where will the heaviest rainfall occur? Frankly, there is no good answer to that right now. The data gathered by the Hurricane Hunter today will help, so hopefully by Wednesday we should have a slightly better idea. For example, a landfall near Brownsville would be a lot better for Houston than one near Corpus Christi. What you should know now is that there is the potential for a major rainfall event in Texas this weekend, including possibly the Houston area. Most likely, this will occur sometime on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. Secondarily, we will be concerned about storm surge and winds if Harvey becomes a strong tropical storm or modest hurricane, but those seem lesser threats at this time. More, when we know it.
except that hit us 2x...went through and circled back and hit us again. but you're right....the projected rainfall totals are similar
