07/20/2018: CBS Sports win total odds Rockets 52 wins and Raptors 58 wins

One thing to consider: we stopped playing the way that won the games last year at a high clip. Down the stretch we slowed down significantly and it showed.

Slower teams increases variance in a bad way. If we play slow next year I could see a big dropoff

 

Imagine him in the east, 60 wins as a lone star,

give him 2 allstars as help he is winning 70 games every damn year

 

If i recall well we were winning the same at the slowest pace, only when we secured 1st seed we incurred few losses

 

Morey has stressed how slowing the game down increases variance and that as a good team you don’t want that with lesser opponents.

 

Anyone predicting the Rockets not to be a top 4 seed out west is an idiot, or has some clairvoyance that allows them to know Harden is going to miss significant time. Because absent Harden going on the shelf for a good while the Rockets are at worst a 3 or 4 seed, but seriously unlikely to fall below 2.

 

Correct.

Harden himself could weld us to top 3.

 

CP3 and Harden miss couple games in the season. No way we lose 13 games from last season. I'll say 61 at best.

 

One: i never saw this quote. Source?

Two: seems a bit counter intuitive. I’d have thought more possessions would correlate with more variance not the opposite. ??

Three: I kind of thought Inc teased variance was part of DMs plan?

 

I’ll try to find it for you

 

Here’s a link to one of the many times Morey said he wanted us to speed up last year:
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2018/4...y-interview-houston-rockets-nba-playoffs-2018

More possessions equates to lower variance because the better team should win out the more opportunities they get.

Think in terms of game. Better teams win out over 7 much more reliably than over 5 or worse yet in single elimination.

Also, you’re more likely to go 2-10 or 0-12 from three than say 0-27 lol.

The more attempts, more possessions, the more you should hit the mean. The better team should want this. Simple sample size issue.

 

52 wins? Seriously? They won 55 the year before they got CP3. Are they seriously saying that subbing out Ariza and Luc for Melo and Ennis will somehow cost the Rockets 13 wins this upcoming season? And don't give me any injury nonsense because they already lost a ton of players to injuries last year and still won 65. Not to mention that they could've easily won 66 had they suited up their starters for that finale at the Kings.

 

That makes sense.

I was coming from the perspective of more possessions giving teams more opportunities to suck or be awesome.

Which I forgot worked for both teams and this ultimately more opportunity for each teams to be what they are.

Still... I thought DMs beat GSW strategy involved increasing variance precisely because we aren’t as good...

 

Separate contexts. Variance for the team is based on players with upside like Melo. He’s variance because if he’s the player he’s been for four or five years now it’s not much help.

Golden state is also different. We are better than everyone else but than them so if we want to win 60+ we should play more pace or we risk losing games we shouldn’t lose.

 

I just want a deeper rested bench come playoffs.

None of this 11 players in regular season, 7 players out on the playoff court MDA-style kumite.

Broaden your players and forget about positioning.

 

The important qualifier on "bench".....there are "regular season benches" and "playoff benches."

Rockets need "playoff worthy" bench players. Gerald Green is a fine regular season bench guy. Not playoff bench guy. We don't know if Ennis is playoff worthy.

 

I guess all those weird rotation games late season was to help him decide that.

We're an older team and that's going to be on all our minds during the long slog, let alone the post-season.

 

Even Chris is shocked about what he is hearing. He was speechless for a second.

I am continuing to watch this. This guy makes me want to puke but its like I can't stop watching it because I want to know how stupid he gets with it.

 

I swear people acting like Rox didnt come 1 ref away from the Finals and we just lost Harden or CP. Same season different year man every damn year

 

You mean 1 ref away from Champs? If they go to finals they win it all.

 

Broussard was very reasonable as his 1st stint as the Good Cop. JMac was also excellent as Bad Cop. I agree that we'll be the 1st or 2nd seed with Harden & CP3, but not with Harden by himself. Here's why. Harden's a NBA 2 playing the point, while CP3 has always been a point. He's ran a team all his career, while Harden's new (couple of years) at running a team by himself. Without another ball handler or 2 (& CP3 is one of the best) all the other team has to do is double Harden to get the ball out of his hand & we have no offense.

My only problem with MDA is his short rotations. You can say all you want about everyone shortens rotations in the playoffs, but that only works if you have players on the court. We have CP3, EG & RA all with injury history (& Luc last year). We didn't have Luc for the GS series & then lost CP3 for the final crunch time in game 6 & all of game 7. We need a 10 -12 man rotation for the regular season & 8 - 9 man rotation for the playoffs. That gives the bench more experience & the starters less wear & tear.