What moves if any do we expect the Astros to make? It’s hard to separate buyers from sellers, but for now it looks like the Royals and Rangers are 2 teams who are in a non-contending phase and are pretty far back in their division in the early going. As I am prone to do, here is an early hypothetical “blockbuster”: Astros get: OF Jorge Soler SP Danny Duffy RP Greg Holland Royals get: OF Josh Reddick 3B Abraham Toro RHP Tyler Ivey RHP Jose Alberto Rivera Reddick clears a lineup spot for Soler and offsets some of the money. Royals get a potential everyday position player in Toro and 2 high ceiling pitchers. Astros get a stopgap answer for LF next year in Soler, a pitcher to replace Verlander if he needs TJ and is out next year, and a relief rental with playoff experience. None of the players coming from the Royals have much surplus value; Duffy is on a healthy extension, Soler has one year of arbitration left, and Holland is a rental reliever. So even that prospect package I listed might be heavy.
Other Astros hypotheticals with teams I expect to be sellers: Astros get: SP Alex Cobb $6M Orioles get: RHP Brett Conine LHP Jairo Lopez Astros get: 1B Todd Frazier Rangers get: RHP Peter Solomon Astros get: RP Derek Holland Pirates get: LHP Parker Mushinski Astros get: OF David Peralta SP Robbie Ray RP Archie Bradley Diamondbacks get: RHP Bryan Abreu RHP Hunter Brown SS Jeremy Pena SS Freudis Nova
2 I would love to see. 1. Abraham Toro Jeremy Pena Bryan Abreu And Josh Reddick For Alex Cobb And Ryan Mountcastle 2. Forrest Whitley Jairo Solis Taylor Jones And Chas McCormick For Nick Sanzel Nick Lodolo Ryan Hendrix And Joe Boyle
Cobb has very little surplus value and Mountcastle is only a marginally better prospect than Toro, so throwing in Pena and Abreu seems a little much. And there is almost no way Cincy trades Lodolo and Senzel at all, much less for Whitley and Solis. Jones and McCormick have very little trade value. Maybe a 3 way trade?: Astros get: OF Nick Senzel 1B Ryan Mountcastle SP Alex Cobb Orioles get: OF Josh Reddick RHP Bryan Abreu RHP Jairo Solis Reds get: RHP Forrest Whitley IF Abraham Toro SS Jeremy Pena RHP Jose Alberto Rivera
Houston would be in good shape with the future. Mountcastle could start wright away. And senzel to CF with Springer to RF
I definitely think Houston should avoid making any major moves just for 2020, regardless of Verlanders status. But if they can make a big move that helps both 2020 and 2021, Im all for it, assuming the cost isn’t too high.
I think Houston should try and make some offset money moves. The above three way or something else doesn't matter. But if we could get a sanzel mountcastle and Cobb and only give up at best Whitley as the high-end. I would be down. Everyone else can go. You get Mountcastle that makes it easier for Yulis cash to be saved. You get Sanzel if by chance Springer leaves we still have Tucker and Senzel. Hopes would be resign Brantley
Update with a week passed: List of sellers probably expanding; my guess is Red Sox, Blue Jays, Royals, Mariners, Pirates, and Giants are pretty firm sellers. Rangers and Orioles both surged a little in the last week so they may stand pat or have higher prices. Diamondbacks are trending toward seller status. New Astros hypotheticals: Astros get: UT Travis Shaw SP Matt Shoemaker Blue Jays get: OF Josh Reddick SP Luis Garcia IF Nick Tanielu Astros get: C Christian Vasquez 1B Mitch Moreland SP Nathan Eovaldi SP Martin Perez RP Brandon Workman Red Sox get: RHP Brandon Bielak IF Abraham Toro C Dustin Garneau Astros get: OF Jorge Soler C Salvador Perez IF Maikel Franco SP Danny Duffy RP Trevor Rosenthal RP Greg Holland Royals get: IF Abraham Toro RHP Jairo Solis RHP Tyler Ivey RHP Enoli Paredes RHP Jojanse Torres C Dustin Garneau Astros get: SP Taijuan Walker Mariners get: RHP Enoli Paredes RHP Shawn Dubin RHP Jojanse Torres Astros get: SP Derek Holland RP Richard Rodriguez Pirates get: RHP Carlos Sanabria RHP Humberto Castellanos Astros get: OF Alex Dickerson 1B Brandon Belt SP Kevin Gausman SP Johnny Cueto $5M Giants get: OF Myles Straw SP Brandon Bielak
What I would like to see is trading guys who wont be here next year anyway because we dont intend to resign them traded for players that can help us next year and beyond. If that guy is Brantley, so be it. Ditto for Springer. But you know what, it wont happen because public image and perception in the present are more important to the brass than improving the future of the team. IMO, we shouldnt try keeping guys we cant retain in a tainted season, one which IMO we wont prosper in (go far in the playoffs anyway). If, everyone were healthy playoff time, my opinion would be different. But I dont see that happening. We have been one of the least healthy teams, to this point, in all of baseball. To expect that all to change just in time for a deep playoff run is unlikely and unrealistic. This year is cursed. Lets just do what we can for future seasons that do count and do matter and dont suffer from the stench that is the 2020 baseball season.
I am fine with them not making any moves and just letting things play out. But depending on how the market shakes out it would be great if they could acquire a good bat with remaining control to replace one of the 3 core bats who will reach free agency after this season. I’m sure the pitching market will be expensive but the Astros could certainly use some veteran relief help both this season and beyond.
Not that blockbusters are ever likely, but the Royals seem to be a match for a potential huge deal that would shore up Houston’s roster in the out years and help KC rebuild. Imagine a 2021 lineup with 4 Royals added to replace the parting free agents and upgrading catcher: CF Merrifield 3B Bregman 2B Altuve DH Alvarez SS Correa LF Soler C Perez 1B Franco RF Tucker Maybe something to pursue next offseason. Merrifield is the only one of those guys who would be expensive.
This. Ultimately, windows don't last forever, and neither do players' careers. We have the 4th highest payroll in MLB, and the 2nd weakest farm system. If we can get a good return on a Springer/Brantley/Gurriel, I would personally do it. Note: As much as I love trade deadlines and playing armchair GM, though, I want to wait another 2 weeks, and then see how things stand there. A lot can change, whether its our record, other teams' records, injuries, etc.
If we can grab a young starter that's still under a few years control, go for it. Maybe some bullpen help...doesn't even have to be a closer, but it would be nice to find one. There are a few available if we want them.
