[ESPN] MLB suspends spring training, delays Opening Day at least two weeks

So it’s possible we’ll never see Springer in an Astros jersey again?

 

Yes. And Correa, Brantley, Greinke and Verlander.

 

Except they are, because a much larger portion of baseball money is local and based on fan attendance. They have more games and larger stadiums than the other sports, and a much smaller national TV deal. The NFL is built around their national TV contract. The NBA's huge surge in salary cap and revenues were based on their new national TV contracts. Baseball has no such buffer.

 

Both the NFL and NBA have quoted them same 40% revenues tied to gate money.

baseball has just so much inequality between its teams. Attendance is so variable amongst contenders and everybody else. As are revenue streams based on media contracts.

also, it seems that more baseball owners have gone the fertita route and leveraged debt to get in the club... and took on more debt to be invested solely within the surrounding areas of the ballpark, or within the ballpark, to boost revenues.

 

Brantley yes. Why Correa, Greinke, and Verlander? Assuming a lock out next season 2021?

 

Yes.... or they’re traded in the off-season in an attempt to jump-start the reload and contend longer process (Along with a salary dump of sorts), vs. just one last run after everybody’s taken a year off, with attendance not necessarily a given even if you’re a contender...

I am worried that the Astros are heavily re-invested due to fan support. Their media contract is middle-market, but their current payroll and fan support is big market. Yes, the playoff revenues certainly help support some of these salaries... but Crane is right up there as an owner who’s primary net worth is tied to the revenues of the team.

 

So players want to be paid in full even if playoffs are cancelled (just deferring about $3MM per team by a year or two)? Regardless of fan attendance? And anyone who gets classified as high-risk could just skip the season with no decrease in salary at all? That all seems like a big fat nonstarter for owners. They both lose less money and take less risk without a season, it would seem.

 

I always assume during negotiations both sides lead in with a proposal they know won't be accepted, but they seem a long, long way apart right now.

Generally speaking, mutually assured destruction is a strong motivator so I was optimistic a few days ago, not so much right now.

 

If they wait this out, my recommendation would be to come back bigger and better. They have to go big. Not just re-open. This needs to be a new theme park and they need to draw attention to it. Make it a destination again. They are not in survival mode luckily. They will re-open, but you better give the people a reason to go and spend twice the money to see it. Make up the ground you lost.

Playing now works, but yep, everyone has to accept losses on both sides. It's about survival. How do you do it. Create a plan that rises and falls with the situation. That's just the reality, and that may be long term. People are stupid. Some will go to the games. But not everyone. Half the population is smart enough to stay home.

 

Everyone knows any money that is deferred it is coming out of future payrolls and not out of the owners' wallets. Essentially, this proposal from players is worse for owners than just prorated player salaries over an 82-game season, and in case there isn't a playoffs, MLB veterans are taking money away that players under club control would make in the future. It is bad when the owners propose a better deal for young MLB players than the MLBPA proposal.

 

I don’t think there’s going to be an MLB season. Sad.

 

Absolutely, no trust between the owners and players. 3 billion dollars for them to split.

Owners propose 50-50 split so players collectively get $1.5 B.
Owners repackage proposal so not tied to revenue, but players still get $1.5B
Players respond with lets's play more games to up revenues to $3.5B, but want $3.1B.

$1.6B is a huge gap.

Caveat: Numbers are very rough and are only meant to be approximate.

 

To fix his tweet it should have said, "Told owners are dug in on regular season ending by Oct 1. Loss of postseason revenue biggest concern and Fox football conflicts loom large."

 

I won’t pretend to know the numbers. I originally assumed that both sides would be HIGHLY motivated to have a season, since without a season neither side generates any money and the brand suffers dramatically. That they seem to be this far apart on the knowns (# of games, revenue split etc.) with so many unknowns still out there (possible Covid resurgence, civil unrest, etc.) to me makes it very unlikely they reach an agreement. Pretty brutal considering the opportunity for them to give the country a MUCH needed distraction.

 

A lot of this is just bringing to light the major discord and issues between the owners and the union that were always there... but the pandemic just brought it out sooner.

There was always going to be a standoff of sorts when the CBA was up. Standoff basically starts now. If taking the year off gets them towards negotiating a new CBA now, and preventing future issues next year, I’d say that would be a worthy sacrifice.

 

I don't think anyone knows the numbers exactly right now as they are dependent on owners negotiations with networks and how many people buy jerseys to watch games at home. The one good number we have is that players would make $2.5B in an 82-game prorated from their normal salary. Considering owners 2 proposals..it seems likely that owners expect baseball revenues at about $3B (likely plus or minus 0.5 B) for 82 games without fans over no season, and definitely much less than $5B (2 times player salaries). The big number that I don't have a good guess is the operating costs for other things besides player salaries for an 82 game season without fans.

 

Yep, on the major discord. Not sure this helps the CBA negotiations unless Manfred and Clark both get fired over this mess.

 

I hear Bud Selig and Donald Fehr are available (once hockey gets finalized)...