Speaking of Expected and Realized deaths (COVID-19 related or not): If you've been thinking deaths due to car accidents (commonly around 40k/yr) is being lowered due to less driving, think again. While crashes are indeed going down, death rates per crash are rising ... due to increased recklessness at higher speeds. (Pedestrian deaths are affected, too.) https://usa.streetsblog.org/2020/04/09/covid-19-cuts-car-crashes-but-what-about-crash-rates/ (Of course, the death rate per crash could be increasing due to overwhelmed hospitals, too. But the article is making the case wrt higher rate of more vicious accidents.)
I am trying to get her blessing in sharing it. She is not a statistician or an epidemiologist but she's a well-respected bio researcher and loves looking at data. It's pretty damned striking. You can access the raw data anytime here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6 But then you have to add up the state counts per category and she's done all that work already.
Edit found a better thread twitter thread countering this article. There are like 20 more tweets at the thread
PLOT TWIST - A patient treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia actually had the coronavirus, his doctor has said. This means the virus may have arrived in Europe almost a month earlier than previously thought. Dr Yves Cohen said a swab taken at the time was recently tested, and came back positive for Covid-19. The patient, who has since recovered, said he had no idea where he caught the virus as he had not travelled abroad. Dr Cohen, head of emergency medicine at Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris, said the patient was a 43-year-old man from Bobigny, north-east of Paris. He told the BBC's Newsday programme that the patient must have been infected between 14 and 22 December, as coronavirus symptoms take between five and 14 days to appear. There is so much we don't know about COVID19 and probably will never know. If someone outside China had samples showing COVID19 existed in their country earlier than November, they'd be under tons of pressure to keep quiet to avoid all the attention and speculation that COVID19 originated there instead of China. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/france-coronavirus-december-death-intl/index.html
I think we'll hit over 300k by EOY. 240 days left x 1200 per day average = 288k which doesn't include the 67k we already have nor the uncounted.
27,000...I actually expected it to be more. I'm guessing a large percent of that is in NY as they were ramping up testing.
I went thru and did NY and NJ and did find some excess deaths. I was going to do more but I got tired of trudging thru the data. I looked at flu/pneumonia, chronic lower respiratory disease, other respiratory disease, and not classified/abnormal. Other respiratory and abnormal showed the biggest discrepancies from the first week of Jan to the end of March (13 weeks) when you compared them year over year. NJ Other respiratory disease... 501 v 597 Abnormal/unclassified........ 315 v 930 NY Other respiratory disease... 565 v 603 Abnormal/unclassified........ 446 v 1285 edit.... So I saw you said she went thru the end of April and when I did that I saw those same kind of trends continue for the 2 categories....however...for April flu/pneumonia deaths spiked significantly. They were basically consistent for the first 13 weeks year over year, but then in April they spike in the first 3 weeks of the month. For NJ in the first 3 weeks of April flu/pneumonia there were 71 deaths in 2019 v 379 in 2020. For NY it was the same trend with 176 deaths in 2019 v 417 in 2020.
I don't understand how he first deferred to the counties to make their own decisions, then started making state-wide decisions that overrule the now demoted county recommendations. Oh yeah, people with the most to lose, like Fertitta are on his STRIKE FORCE.
It is really sad that people can’t forego luxuries like getting haircuts, pedicures, manicures, and going to tanning salons for two-to-three months. These things can all be done at home or not done at all in the short term with no significant harm to the individual.
Overall these numbers that continue to come out are excellent. Deaths did shoot up today, but they are normally higher on Tuesday and they were down about 200 from this Tuesday versus last Tuesday. I think we should see a decent decline this week versus last week. Also percentage of tests positive continues to decline rapidly. We have been at 9.2% yesterday and 8.6% today. For comparison we were at 17.9% two weeks ago.
The entire country Texas percent of tests positive continues to decline. I use a 5 day rolling average of tests and positive tests to calculate it. 3 weeks ago it was at 10.9%, 2 weeks ago 8% and 5.6% today. We have been around this sub 6% number for about 10 days while testing continues to increase.
Overruling local regulations that he doesn't like is one of Abbot's favorite hobbies, has been for years. See: plastic bag bans, transgender rights, licensing of certain professions, sanctuary cities, etc.... Here's an article from 3 years ago: https://www.texastribune.org/2017/0...road-based-law-pre-empting-local-regulations/
