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Ask Me Anything (Except Math Questions)

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by rimrocker, Dec 13, 2019.

  1. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Has the reported fires changed? How does people living inside homes affect the incident rate?
     
  2. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Not sure about fires, but in states where Stay-at Home is a thing, we do know ambulance rides are down as there are less car accidents, workplace injuries, etc.

    One might expect house fires to rise slightly as more people are cooking--and there are some bad cooks out there. Wildfires should decrease because human starts should decrease as federal land, state parks, and even local open spaces are closed to prevent gatherings of people. My guess is those will stay closed for awhile as we want to keep wildfires at a minimum this year to avoid--as much as we can--exposing crews to the virus. I'm not looking forward to August and September.
     
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  3. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Also, in urban areas where the traffic is much lower, we're seeing an increase in speeders, so that improvement in the accident rate may not last or at least be as pronounced as it is now.

    The crazy thing about a pandemic is that it affects everything in society. Every effing thing.
     
  4. Buck Turgidson

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    In my asian stir fry, should I eat the veggies or the meat first?
     
  5. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Depends on the veggies. If you have stuff like broccoli, you should eat it first to get it out of the way so it won't spoil your meatness. If it you have onions or carrots and such that have been reduced and covered in good sauce, it's OK to eat those in concert with the meat, providing you have a few forkfuls of mostly or only meat.
     
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  6. FrontRunner

    FrontRunner Member

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    Serious question... You were well ahead of most of us when it came to prepping for the pandemic. Do you foresee a return to normal anytime soon with regards to food supplies and the availability of things like TP?
     
  7. GIGO

    GIGO Member

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    Do you think there'll be unexpected future difficulties and issues with waste management of contaminated materials and devices from this pandemic, not just in the States, but worldwide.

     
  8. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    It's going to be difficult. Most of the long-term planners I know are thinking late 2021-early 2022 for a vaccine to become widely available. Until then, we'll have to keep our awareness up and some level of physical distancing in place. Ideally, we'd have federal coordination that could organize summer-time rolling relaxations across the states in a way that made sense so we can all get a little relief before the next wave hits in the fall. I don't see that happening, however. It seems we will be bound by the lowest common denominator of state management, which means others will have to be more stringent to try and offset the stupidity.

    The other issue is recovery and rebuilding. The reports I've seen suggest 3-5 years for recovering the job losses. That doesn't include addressing the other societal issues this pandemic will highlight and create. So, 2025-2027 before "normal" (whatever that may be).

    Now, the recovery and rebuilding issue is a tough one, because some will automatically try and force what is into what was and others will try to turn what is into what they wanted before. My greatest fear is that changes will be made quickly and reactively, rather than reflectively. We saw this problem after 9-11 when FEMA, a domestic preparedness and recovery agency was rolled up within DHS, who has a main mission of international terrorism. Didn't work and the failures are evident. If we are to come out better than before, it will take all of us thinking about the future we want and getting involved enough to make it happen. We can't afford to make changes while holding the assumptions that were prevalent 5 months ago. The pandemic affects every corner of society and we need to think that way going forward.
     
  9. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Not significantly. It's a virus and there are lots of things we can use to make a virus unhappy, like UV light, steam, alcohol, etc. It's not a radionuclide that is going to last for a bunch of years and given climate change, it doesn't look like any of the Covid-19 positive patients are going to get trapped in ice for a few thousand years either.
     
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  10. FrontRunner

    FrontRunner Member

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    Thank you. That's a lot to digest this morning. At some point, if you think of ways the rest of us can involved in shaping a response and making some changes, I would be all ears. Until then, it sounds like my time would be well spent continuing to fill my cupboards and freezer! I'll have to reevaluate my goals and future plans at some point too.
     
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  11. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Two things to think about:

    First, prevention and preparedness cannot be measured because if they are successful, little or nothing happens. That makes it an easy target for politicians who want to put that money on things that can be counted, like highways and tax cuts. Because of this, we have a long history of throwing gobs of money at the emergency once it becomes too big to ignore rather than regular but much smaller funds spent anticipating it.

    Second, we need a new definition of "healthy economy." If all it takes is 2-4 weeks of pandemic control to crash our economy to levels of the Great Depression, it was never that strong to begin with. You notice all the ridiculously wealthy screaming for people to go back to work? It's not their hard work that made them rich, it's yours. I think we need a reset where stability trumps convenience, the economy is fairer for all economic classes, and wealth is distributed more proportionately through taxes, policies, and laws. That doesn't make me a communist or a socialist. It makes me an American who is influenced by and cares about other Americans.

    One of the scariest conversations I've had is with an epidemiologist who thinks this is a minor incident, a pop quiz if you will. That we are failing with Covid-19 does not bode well for the big one that will eventually get here. We best not forget the lessons we're learning right now and we better think about how to fix those systemic problems that the virus is showing us.
     
  12. Rashmon

    Rashmon Contributing Member

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    Quoted for truth.
     
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  13. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    How long into the future will there be a virus worse than this one? At that point will AI be able to engineer a vaccine quickly that It won't matter anyways?
     
  14. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    That’s the question, right? My guess is sooner than we want. There are countless viruses that have lived with species for millennia, but now with climate change, we’re entering a mass extinction event on top of decades of major habitat loss. So, if you’re a virus and you want to try and survive, your only hope is to jump to animals we eat/use (pig, chicken, cow, horse), our pets (dogs, cats), or us humans. As far as AI goes, I’d rather take my chances with a novel virus than fight the damn terminators.
     
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  15. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Contributing Member
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    Considering Texas has a bigger population than many countries, why can't we get more tests and testing centers? Is the Federal Government to blame, our Governor, or both?

    Just to compare I pulled up some figures from today. I listed population followed by tests administered.

    Texas 29,472,295 / 106,134
    Australia. 25,499,884 / 338,346
    UAE. 9,866,021 / 593,095
    Austria. 9,006,398 / 134,743
    Norway. 5,421,241 / 121,034
     
  16. conquistador#11

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    How do archers aim to the sky and hit a perfect target down below?
     
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  17. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    All ballistic shooters correct for distance and wind.
     
  18. GIGO

    GIGO Member

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    Prof. rimrocker will be back shortly. In the meantime, feel free to watch this video.



     
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  19. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Hard for me not to say both. The Trump administration is conducting a class in what not to do to respond to a major incident. From planning to logistics to communications and beyond, they are doing many of the things I warn students about in the classes I teach. Many of us are just flabbergasted by what we are seeing. If you have a governor who pays more attention to the leader of his party than the expertise of public health officials, you have compounded the problem. Both treated it as a PR problem early, instead of the public health problem it really is.

    The testing debacle will have to be investigated and studied. Those Abbott Labs instruments that give results in minutes? 15 were sent to each state (still not clear who sent them) with instructions that if your state wanted more, you had to get them on the open market. The briefing a few weeks ago when were promised web-based testing sites in box store parking lots has apparently been forgotten because Trump announced yesterday the federal government will no longer do any tests. Yet we must have wide-range testing to understand what is going on. Without it, we're just guessing. Having states do it piecemeal without federal coordination is a recipe for confusion and increased risk.

    One issue I fear is that states with large metro areas have ramped up and are starting to bend the curve, but there are a lot of rural counties that could be ready to accelerate. I'm not sure the models are very good in rural states/areas that are only reporting a few cases--and their reported deaths are typically running 3-7 days behind. Not to mention they typically get fewer tests kits. We need lots of tests to understand how the virus is affecting every corner of our country.
     
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  20. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Thanks @Xerobull and @GIGO. I'll add that the flight path of an arrow is in the shape of an arc with the highest point being when gravity overcomes the vertical propellent force imparted to the arrow. It takes a lot of practice to correctly judge it and the other simultaneous forces acting on the arrow. There are many arrow shooting games on the internet. Perhaps you should play a few.
     

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