Knicks should just leave Harkless when they visit. In return we will not beat you by more than 20. https://dailyknicks.com/2020/02/22/new-york-knicks-houston-rockets/
I’m 100% with you on that. I would like to somehow keep Jeff Green (after seeing him score 17 pts in first game) because Green may fit our system like a glove and having the option of playing a platoon “Small-Ball” center of Tucker/Carroll/Markieff/Jeff Green could pay huge dividends. Caboclo represents the Bogut/Javale MeGee/Zaza minutes while with the Warriors. Bruno start and that lets the Rockets set a defensive tone (for about 8 minutes). Then maybe 8 minutes (last two minutes of 3rd & 1st 6 minutes of 4th) in second half. I’m afraid Thabo is just a situational defender to end a quarter or game. Thabo for a defensive possession and then we (Rockets) have to call time out to get Thabo out. With. Tucker or Green or Markieff you don’t need to call timeout since they can hit 3’s. Jury is still out on Carroll. I hope he just needs a change of scenery. We all know Pop frowns on 3-pt attempts. D Carroll with from about 4 (3PA’s) per game with Nets to about 1.0 a game with San Losers.. I like the way the Warriors attacked LeBron.....by defensive committee. Iggy/Klay/Dray/Barnes-KD. Rockets could throw Harden/Tucker/Jeff Green/D Carroll/Markieff/House/Covington at LeBron/Kuzma Same philosophy a few years later......wear the baby crier down to the point he is a non factor by game 5.
Well nothing is guaranteed in life except death and taxes. Since the 14/15 season elements of this style and play have been on display and shown to be successful. I watched the Warriors use their version of “Small-Ball” during that season and I told people they were making a mistake by showing their hand well before the playoffs. They then proceeded to dominate the playoffs. As per my discussion with @saleem (before my daughter broke my train of thought with this take me to school thing, lol) I was mentioning then the Curry 3’s vs LeBron 2’s (dunks). Well here are the numbers: Representing 3’s vs 2’s or “3-point scoring” vs “points at the rim”: Curry: 64% (3P%) x 50 (3-pt attempts) = 32 (3PM).....then x 3 (value of 3-pointers) = 96 points vs LeBron: 96% (Dunks made) x 50 (Dunk attempts) = 48 (Dunks Made).....x 2 (value of made dink) = 96 points Or a variation Curry: 67% (3P%) x 50 (3-pt attempts) = 33.5 (3PM).....x 3 (value of 3-pointers) = 100.5 points vs LeBron: 100% (Dunks made) x 50 (Dunk attempts)) = 50......x 2 (value of made dunk) = 100 points Now LeBron/opponents won’t hit 100% of their FG’s against the Rockets 5 feet or less. Rockets allow opponents to make 66.0%(DFG%) 5 feet or less from the rim. 4th worst in the NBA.....but it’s not 100%. Bad news is.... The Rockets won’t hit 3’s as a team like Curry did from the left corner 3 for the entire playoffs that season. Currently the Rockets stand at 35% from 3 as a team (prior to tonight’s game at Utah). So let’s go to that referred game of Rockets @ Lakers in which Dwight Howard and JaVale MeGee we’re unplayable against our small lineup. Again, I mentioned how elements have been used in the past. We (Rockets) found out as well that Dwight Howard was unplayable vs the Warriors small ball lineups as well. AD had a great game against us. His stat line was: 40 minutes (much like it will be in the playoffs), 14/21 for 67% (FG%) (No 3’s or 3-pt attempts) and 32 points for the game. Rockets laced the “Wolf pack” defense and surrounded AD, got some deflections.....AD took some off balance shots....some easy baskets. For the most part worked for his 32 points as Houston hot 45% from 3 that game on 42 (3PA’s). You see the Rockets are use to taking 50 threes a game......but LA Lakers shoot 32.1 attempts a game in the restricted area. League high I believe of 69.2% (FG%) as a team scoring in the restricted area. Take note of this: Houston hits 63.5% or round up to 64% (FG%) as a team in the restricted area. On 31.0 attempts a game. What, practically the same amount of attempts in the restricted area? ITP (in the paint) the Lakers are 39.5% (FG% or round it up 40%) on 11.5 FGA’s.....the Rockets are 37.0% (FG%) on practically the same amount of attempts per game as the Lakers, 10.3 (attempts ITP) The two differences in teams offenses is Mid-Range and 3-pt attempts.: Lakers are 37.0% (FG%) in Mid-Range while taking 13.8 (or round up to 14 attempts) a game. Rockets are 40.4% (FG%) in Mid-Range while shooting only 5.7 (or 6) per game. Thank you Westbrook for reducing your attempts. Three pointers: Lakers shoot 30.8 (3PA’s) per game.....yes they shoot a better % (36.2%) than the Rockets (35.0%) but its not always easy to kick it up a notch in attempts. Chucking the ball tends to be the result. Lakers would be playing out of their element. Houston on the other hand is trying to out run the opponents big center down the floor to set up a numbers mismatch. A 3-on-2 or 4-on-3 which may leave an open 3-pt shooter since most teams are taught to defend the rim (the highest scoring percentage shot). Don’t let Harden or Westbrook get an uncontested layup/dunk. But after a few kick outs the philosophy changes to don’t let them get off an uncontested 3.....the highest point value shot. When they over play the 3......then the Rockets re-enter the pass to Harden/Westbrook/Rivers/Gordon for the easy layup dunk since the defense jumps out of position to defend the 3. If you add up all the points averaged from each game through all the many zones it’s like Houston 99 points to the Lakers 97 points. Then you throw in Rockets FTs/Technicals which is 20/26 attempts I believe to the Lakers FT’s/Techs. May come down to the refs. Rockets average something like 118 points a game. So in Conclusion @saleem @DaBeard I see your apprehension for wanting more than Tyson/Hartenstein as a big bear to wrestle with the other teams big bear.....but sometimes a wolf pack can take down the bear. The Rockets don’t have 5-all Stars, but I say the Rockets can be successful with a team full of SF’s (true SF’s) if they are decent enough. Covington/House/Tucker/Jeff Green/D Carroll are good enough and have enough size/wing span to get it done. It is true that the playoffs are a series of adjustments, but I’m hearing D’Antoni, Morey and players saying that they just have to play their game.....teams seem to have to adjust to us. I agree with them, for the most part teams will need to change when playing us. Much like I learned from watching the Warriors over the past few years. Nobody knows how much I wanted someone to beat them. The feeling I had back then was, the Warriors will get tired as the season goes on playing Small-Ball for so long. Now the Rockets are trying to do it without the big thugs like Zaza/MeGee/Bogut.....but it’s just a few games after the all star break. Something like 27 games left. Adding Green/Carroll and Markieff would be tremendous for the testing of players while finishing the season. Don’t forget that the stats may be skewed since Capela was here......with 5-men out sets brings more 3-pointers. Im a huge proponent that with 5-men out sets, even the best defenses can’t cover all the territory needed to defend the 3 (if the shooters are proficient enough from long range. Creates wide open lanes for Westbrook/Harden as well. Thus allowing Harden/Westbrook to nullify the point total generated by LeBron/AD or PG/Kawhi. I feel or get the sense that the Lakers are trying hard to win right now but the Clippers are coasting. PG and Kawhi still take games off.....where the Lakers struggle when LeBron goes to the bench. Rockets can now matchup with the Bucks.....would be better with Markieff if he wants to run with us. Should be interesting. Of course this is all based out of analytics. But if it doesn’t work, the tweak would be getting better shooters from 3 and the FT line.
I also said Bruno has a great block%. Even greater than the great Capela. So I know it’s better than the low basketball IQ of M Chriss. Look you can keep Chriss. I wouldn’t play him on my summer league team. Edited: I don’t even know why people are even talking about M Chriss? The Warriors are like at $131M They need to cut much more than Chriss to make a difference. They might as well keep him and trade him this summer.
Thank you saleem I’m still hoping for 57 wins. Takes .807 winning percentage from here on out. 21 wins out of 26 games. It would put us as 2nd seed.....maybe even 1st. Lakers winning percentage is .778 Probably not realistic though. Lakers would have to drop under 54% winning percentage in their final 28 games. Around 14 wins (or less) out of 28 games. Go Rockets!!
@ApacheWarrior I gotta take off my hat to you, for all the efforts you brought in this post, as well as your systematic thinking on the strength of our system. For me, those parts before the subtitle 'three pointers' (piles up w/ historical statistics) are brilliant and persuasive, you got my concerns removed except for 2 things: 1) both GSW and this rockets team build on same 'small ball' system, but no comparison, cuz build around totally different core (type of players): GSW got 2 pure and gifted 3pt shooter as their core; as for our tandem and future HOFs, one is the most smart and brilliant scorer (mid-range n long-range), the other is a super athletic and mid-range king who esp unstoppable in paint. that means, though 3ball is the pillar of our system now, but we just can't heavily rely on our tandem to shoot 3s day in day out. others gotta stand up to nail down 3s while James double-teamed or having an off night. in j*zz game, though we won, I didn't see it happened (RoCo 2/12, PJ 1/5, EGo 2/6). after the j*zz game, one critic (doubter) put his words this way: 'they live by 3s, and gonna die by 3s', I don't buy that, in the mean time the ball is in our role players hand, let's see. 2. (Your quote below) nowadays many elite teams in this league have long been playing small for a while, say raptors (Ibaka PER 18min), clippers (zubak, PER 21min), bucks (lopez bro, PER 14/11min each), Celtic (theis 6’8”), in another words, non of them heavily relying on their big man's offense minutes-wise, all tend to be playing up-tempo and small ball in a sense, even so they fill in at least 1-2 spot of their roster with reliable n versatile big man served them as their plan B. therefore I don't think we should have any exception. just playing it save to land a legit C say play 14-18min/game in a rainy day, got no harm. P.S. thanks for serving my concerns as the starting point of your overall analysis and recap it in your conclusion paragraph (you actually well rephrased mine), the 2 paragraphs below keeps us on the same page as for 'playoff adjustments' , or at least I feel happy you deem it as an ISSUE for most contenders. (the 1st paragraph) (the conclusion part)
Yes, excellent conversation. Point 1) GSW vs Rockets. There are differences in the teams as you suggest. The Warriors use to be a threat of shooting 3’s, but loved to score using parts of their “Princeton offense” and “Triangle Offense”. What do I mean? Back door screens and cuts toward the rim. The start of the Warriors title runs had Harrison Barnes and Barbosa. Warriors career 3-pt % per player: Curry: 43.5% Klay T: 41.9% H Barnes: 37.4% Barbosa: 38.7% Draymond Green: 39% in 15/16 season They had 5 good shooters which helped set up their read and react offensive screen and cuts. Then they decided to add all stars (quality) over quantity (Barnes/Barbosa/Bogut/ etc) First Durant and then Cousins Durant: 38.1% (career 3P%) Cousins: 33.2% (career 3P%) So, before Cousins you have a roster like this: Curry: 43.5% Klay: 41.9% Durant: 38.1% Draymond: dropped to 31.9% Livingston: 17.8% Iggy: 33.3% (career) Looney: 17.6% Jordan Bell: 13.3% McGee: 15.2% Zaza: 0% So, you can see that this team is efficient but could have been more efficient with greater 3-point shooters providing cover fire for Durant/Curry as they attack the rim. Curry depends heavily on screeners. This is a very important point. Curry has a quick shot but likes to use screens to get off his shot. Now look at the current Rockets 3P% career/season: Tucker: 36.3% (career)........37.4% (season) Harden: 36.4% (career) House: 38.0 (career)...........38.2% (season) Covington: 35.8% (career).....34.4% (season) Eric Gordon: 37.1% (career).....33.2% (season) Rivers: 34.6% (career)..............34.1% (season) McLemore: 36.2% (career).........39.2% (season) Jeff Green: 33.4% (career)..........34.5% (season) Carroll: 35.9% (career).............23.1% (season)..................34.2% (last year) Clemons: 35.5% (career) Bruno: 31.7% (career) Thabo: 34.9% (career)..............28.3% (season)..................44% (last year) So in theory I believe the Warriors could have been better. Rockets are moving in that direction with 5-men out sets. Warriors used screens which normally used a plop-plop center that doesn’t shoot 3’s. This takes away from the 3’s vs 2’s rule I spoke of in other posts (exception is Cousins of course 33.2% career 3P%). Rockets have sent out their non 3-pt shooting center (Capela) for 3-pt shooting Tucker/ J Green/Carroll/Covington and hopefully Markieff 40% (3P%). What are the Rockets doing? Rockets do not use PnR (pick and roll) as much because the extra defender would just stick to Harden. Basically we (Rockets) were helping teams double team Harden. Our read and react offense would have Harden kicking out or lobbing to Capela. Well as we learned 2’s don’t add up nearly as well as those pesky 3’s. There are two of the most inefficient play types in the NBA, post ups and the iso. Well much like the Warriors would let you get a little success in post ups......then they would collapse the defense like a wolf pack surround a gazelle protecting is baby. Wolves snipping at the heels from all directions. So the Rockets are going to encourage other teams to post us up. The Lakers coach in an interview after the game said that they fell into Houston’s trap. They saw the smallish team and wanted to force-feed AD in the paint. Charles Barkley and Shaq chuckled, in the pre game show, that AD was going to get 100 points in that game. AD played 40 minutes. 21 shot attempts......but the Lakers tried to force-feed AD more with less success. Could they get AD more attempts? Yes, but that takes shots away from 3-pt shooters or LeBron. Could they shoot more 3’s? Yes, but their 3-pt shooters are not use to taking that many more 3’s (except D Green). So the Rockets themselves have no interest in running post ups with Bigs. We have established that. But what of the iso play? Rockets have the top two iso guys in the NBA last time I checked. Because of the 3-pt arsenal the Rockets possessed prior to the trade......and Westbrook and Harden are hard to defend even with teams playing zone or defensive 3-seconds; imagine 3-point shooters all along the 3-point line (5-men out sets). Open lanes for Harden and Westbrook to gravitate the defense.....no big center setting screens which defenders let go so they can double Harden/WB. 3’s vs 2’s......Harden strong enough to get fouled and pick up the basket. 3-points the old fashion way. Teams would rather let Capela get the 2-pt dunk than Harden or WB get the layup and the foul. 3’s vs 2’s. Plus Capela let his FT% to in the 50 percentage range earlier this year. Analytics show that’s not as efficient as the 70% FT shooters....duh. So yes the Warriors and Rockets offensive schemes and personnel are different. But I preferred what the starting Warriors were doing by spreading the 3’s over multiple shooters.....over paying big bucks to an all star(s). Don’t get me wrong, I would take Durant on my team.....just a shame how the cap limits our window as well. That answers Point 1 I hope.....but it also ties into Point 2. Other teams playing small. Yes they do, but Harden/Westbrook make the ISO play work to the benefit of the team. I read an article I believe from “The Ringer” about the Rockets stretching out the court by having Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Ariza and Luc M shooting 3-5 feet beyond the 3-pt line. Yes, I can’t seem to find it in an internet search now. But it claims that by having multiple shooters shooting 3-5 feet beyond the 3-point line created such an unbearable strain on the amount of square footage on the defenders......to the point that it is impossible to defend all shooters. With Eric Gordon/Clemons/Harden I know we have that now as well. Teams will truly have to pick their poison. Harden/WB getting each 40 points or 3-pt barrage from our deep shooting marksmen? Rockets are forcing other teams to adapt. When other teams are adapting to you....advantage you. Every time a big is on the floor.....advantage to deep shooter somewhere on the perimeter for the Rockets during 5-men out sets.
