Analyzing our last 3 games

Spacemoth · Feb 5, 2020

We get to play better teams real quick, but we also get to add Covington, real quick. It’ll be an interesting experiment for the entire NBA to behold. Only time will tell.

YOLO · Feb 5, 2020

Haymitch said: ↑

Don't know if you listen to the "Thinking Basketball" podcast but there was an interesting one on the value of rebounding - or, rather, the value in using rebounding to assess a player. It was pretty interesting. I don't think I fully understood it as I was doing other **** while listening, but one argument the guy (Ben Taylor) made was that team rebounding matters, but individual rebounding does not. Essentially, rebounding from an individual is more easily replaced by others than other things like scoring or playmaking or perimeter defense.

Anyway, it's worth a listen. My summary here doesn't do it justice. I wonder if the Rockets think similarly on rebounding and that was a potential motivator.
Click to expand...

ill try to check it out. Do you know which # podcast it was though. there's a number of them to choose from lol

Haymitch · Feb 5, 2020

YOLO said: ↑

ill try to check it out. Do you know which # podcast it was though. there's a number of them to choose from lol
Click to expand...

#40: Should the Board Man get paid!?

https://player.fm/series/thinking-basketball/ep-40-should-the-board-man-get-paid-rebounding-101

JayZ750 · Feb 5, 2020

The problem deep into the playoffs is the opposing teams will have bug guys that can defend rebound AND shoot while committing limited turnovers.

that’s why those teams are good.

D-rock · Feb 5, 2020

Excellent F'ing post!!

And temper some of the expectations for LAL because it will take a few games for RoCo and the team to jell.

Nevertheless I still expect a win.

buzz1701 · Feb 5, 2020

Nice post. One main thing you did not touch on is OFFENSIVE rebounds. Those do give teams extra shots and usually points too. It kills me to see great defense and then they get a slam put back on the board. Probably give up more of those too.

Joe Smith · Feb 5, 2020

coyotetex said: ↑

The real test of the new small ball strategy starts with the next game against the Lakers. Houston has to be able to win consistently against teams with elite bigs to have a viable path to a championship.

But Morey and D'A wouldn't go all in with this strategy unless the underlying math suggested it would work.

The majority of fans here and outside of Houston are going to jump on the mantra that you can't win without rebounding and having effective rim protection. This is based on confirmation bias and not actual math or results. There can be no factual basis for this assumption because no team in NBA history has ever constructed a roster to play this way. This is uncharted territory and as such, the whole world should be waiting to judge it until we see what happens.

And what's happened so far in the past three games is FASCINATING.

The Rockets have beaten three less than elite teams on this run - the Hornets and Pelicans which are lottery teams and the Mavericks without Luka. So this analysis comes with a caveat that we haven't beaten a healthy playoff team playing small yet. But we also haven't seen how adding Roco, an elite perimeter defender, will improve the team's performance.

What we can say, is that the Rockets have won three games in a row by an average margin of +10 points, despite shooting a lower FG% in all three games, giving up at least 12 more rebounds in all three games and without having a meaningful advantage at the Free Throw line.

So lets dive into the numbers and see how the Rockets have won these games despite giving up an average of nearly 16 more rebounds per game:

Rebounds:

CHA - 53
HOU - 41

NOP - 63
HOU - 43

DAL - 52
HOU - 37

This is the heart of the argument that you can't win playing small ball. Over this three game span, the Rockets have been out-rebounded 168 to 121. Opponents are pulling down 39% (!!!!) more rebounds than the Rockets. That has to be an absolute killer right? No team can possibly win consistently giving up 40% more rebounds than their opponents?

Frankly I was stunned by this number. I love the idea of small ball and I'm all about the math, but even I couldn't initially wrap my head around the idea that the Rockets were giving up SO MANY MORE rebounds! That had to mean that they were taking a ton less shots than their opponents right? RIGHT?

Field Goal Attempts:

CHA - 83
HOU - 97

NOP - 94
HOU - 105

DAL - 90
HOU - 98

Just let these numbers soak in a minute. That's right, in all three games the Rockets took significantly MORE shots than their opponents.

So this doesn't make ANY sense. The Rockets are giving up 16 more rebounds a game but taking 11 more shot attempts a game? HOW IN THE WORLD IS THAT HAPPENING?

Turnovers:

CHA - 17
HOU - 4

NOP - 21
HOU - 7

DAL - 17
HOU - 6

Wow...just WOW. And those are the entire team's turnover stats, not just Harden's. In fact, we've seen games where Harden and Westbrook have each individually had more turnovers than the team had in these three games.

A lot of the Rockets turnovers were related to attempts to put the ball into big guys hands at the rim or due to an emergency attempt to kick out when one of our guards drove the lane only to find a rim protector in their face at the last minute. Removing the inside game means less passes in traffic and spacing the opposing big out toward the three point line means less rim protection when Brodie or Beard drives.

The Rockets are getting 47 less rebounds over the three game span, but 38 MORE turnovers. And when your team is more efficient at scoring than the opponents on a per possession basis (and the Rockets are more efficient than anybody except maybe the Bucks) turnovers (which give you more possessions) are worth more than defensive rebounds (which deny opponents more possessions).

But here's the insidious thing about turnovers and why they are FAR superior to defensive rebounds. If you are the Rockets and you take a shot and miss and the opponent rebounds that ball, their rebound simply gets them a shot on the other end, the same as if the Rockets had made the bucket. Defensive rebounds prevent 2nd chance points, but they don't create an additional opportunity for the other team to score. It's one possession for the Rockets and one possession for the opponent.

But if the Rockets score and then steal the ball and score again, the turnover has resulted in an "extra" 2 or 3 points that they wouldn't otherwise be able to get. Defensive rebounds don't create additional possessions (and extra shots) but turnovers DO create extra possessions AND extra shots.

That's why the Rockets are losing the Rebound battle so badly, but winning the FGA battle so decisively. And why are other teams turning the ball over so much more? Because they are giving more possessions to big men in traffic who are being covered by smaller, faster defenders who can disrupt plays more often.

Field Goal Percentage

CHA - 47%
HOU - 44%

NOP - 45%
HOU - 39%

DAL - 48%
HOU - 46%

So this is exactly what you might expect with teams having a height advantage. They will be able to get higher percentage shots off against the Rockets by pounding the rock inside and laying it up over shorter defenders.

But because the Rockets average more FGAs a game, this happens:

FGM

CHA - 39
HOU - 43

NOP - 42
HOU - 41

DAL - 43
HOU - 45

So the higher percentage shots the opponent bigs are taking in the lane don't matter because the Rockets are taking MORE total shots and making just as many total field goals as their opponents (actually in 2 of 3 cases - even more!)

But the best part is saved for last:

3 point conversions / attempts:

CHA - 13 for 33
HOU - 20 for 60 (!!!!)

NOP - 10 for 33
HOU - 16 for 51

DAL - 14 for 36
HOU - 21 for 45

And here is where the math advantage destroys other teams. The Rockets are averaging over 50 3 point attempts per game! Even if they shoot in the low to mid 30% range, if you make the same number of FGAs as your opponent and 6 - 7 of those attempts are for 50% more points, you are going to win EVERY GAME, unless your giving up more points at the free throw line....

FTs:

CHA 19 - 24
HOU 19 - 23

NOP - 15 - 20
HOU - 19 - 22

DAL 21 - 27
HOU 17 - 20

....which the Rockets aren't doing. The Rockets used to need a good margin in free throws to consistently win games. With refs denying Harden the calls he used to get, the Rockets can't rely on FTs to help them win games as much as they used to. And we all know that FT calls dry up in the post season, so for playoff basketball, relying on the charity stripe as a way to win games is dangerous. The small ball lineup doesn't need an advantage at the FT line, it just needs relative parity. And it doesn't hurt that we are replacing Capela, a sub 50% shooter at the line, with Roco who is a career 80% shooter.

So all of this analysis could get blown up tomorrow in Staples Center if the Lakers dominate the Rockets inside and the small ball lineup gets exposed. But if it plays in Hollywood like its played so far in Houston, then I think we may want to re-examine our assumptions about how important rebounding percentage and rim protection actually is and how valuable the Capela for Covington trade may turn out to be.
Click to expand...

You think Morey has been building his rosters through the years with Math and Analytics? Was Dwight Howard, Corey Brewer, Josh Smith or the plethora of poor shooters a sign of next level Math? Daryl Morey at this point is just throwing stuff on the wall, and hope something saves his ass, he will be fired this off season anyway!

Russjr2 · Feb 5, 2020

I don't think the ultimate plan is to play super small for the rest of the season. I think that was a product of Clint being hurt and not able to play. Let's not rush to judgement on that style with the current roster. We just made a move for a needed Wing, we moved Clint and will be bringing in a replacement that can help on boards and P&R plays similar to Clint. And maybe another F type player that can help us in buyout market. Our roster will look different in a month

YOLO · Feb 5, 2020

Russjr2 said: ↑

I don't think the ultimate plan is to play super small for the rest of the season. I think that was a product of Clint being hurt and not able to play. Let's not rush to judgement on that style with the current roster. We just made a move for a needed Wing, we moved Clint and will be bringing in a replacement that can help on boards and P&R plays similar to Clint. And maybe another F type player that can help us in buyout market. Our roster will look different in a month
Click to expand...

they're going to be playing small ball more than ever. There isn't a KAT, AD, Embiid etc coming this way. whoever is coming in, isn't going to be playing nearly as much as CC did

RudyTBag · Feb 5, 2020

YOLO said: ↑

they're going to be playing small ball more than ever. There isn't a KAT, AD, Embiid etc coming this way. whoever is coming in, isn't going to be playing nearly as much as CC did
Click to expand...

Truth. We aren't bringing in a big that is going to play heavy minutes, unless it was someone that could really stretch the floor as well.

I could see someone like Markeiff breaking D'Antoni's rotation in a good way, or Kelly Oly.

fckbandwagons · Feb 5, 2020

coyotetex said: ↑

The real test of the new small ball strategy starts with the next game against the Lakers. Houston has to be able to win consistently against teams with elite bigs to have a viable path to a championship.

But Morey and D'A wouldn't go all in with this strategy unless the underlying math suggested it would work.

The majority of fans here and outside of Houston are going to jump on the mantra that you can't win without rebounding and having effective rim protection. This is based on confirmation bias and not actual math or results. There can be no factual basis for this assumption because no team in NBA history has ever constructed a roster to play this way. This is uncharted territory and as such, the whole world should be waiting to judge it until we see what happens.

And what's happened so far in the past three games is FASCINATING.

The Rockets have beaten three less than elite teams on this run - the Hornets and Pelicans which are lottery teams and the Mavericks without Luka. So this analysis comes with a caveat that we haven't beaten a healthy playoff team playing small yet. But we also haven't seen how adding Roco, an elite perimeter defender, will improve the team's performance.

What we can say, is that the Rockets have won three games in a row by an average margin of +10 points, despite shooting a lower FG% in all three games, giving up at least 12 more rebounds in all three games and without having a meaningful advantage at the Free Throw line.

So lets dive into the numbers and see how the Rockets have won these games despite giving up an average of nearly 16 more rebounds per game:

Rebounds:

CHA - 53
HOU - 41

NOP - 63
HOU - 43

DAL - 52
HOU - 37

This is the heart of the argument that you can't win playing small ball. Over this three game span, the Rockets have been out-rebounded 168 to 121. Opponents are pulling down 39% (!!!!) more rebounds than the Rockets. That has to be an absolute killer right? No team can possibly win consistently giving up 40% more rebounds than their opponents?

Frankly I was stunned by this number. I love the idea of small ball and I'm all about the math, but even I couldn't initially wrap my head around the idea that the Rockets were giving up SO MANY MORE rebounds! That had to mean that they were taking a ton less shots than their opponents right? RIGHT?

Field Goal Attempts:

CHA - 83
HOU - 97

NOP - 94
HOU - 105

DAL - 90
HOU - 98

Just let these numbers soak in a minute. That's right, in all three games the Rockets took significantly MORE shots than their opponents.

So this doesn't make ANY sense. The Rockets are giving up 16 more rebounds a game but taking 11 more shot attempts a game? HOW IN THE WORLD IS THAT HAPPENING?

Turnovers:

CHA - 17
HOU - 4

NOP - 21
HOU - 7

DAL - 17
HOU - 6

Wow...just WOW. And those are the entire team's turnover stats, not just Harden's. In fact, we've seen games where Harden and Westbrook have each individually had more turnovers than the team had in these three games.

A lot of the Rockets turnovers were related to attempts to put the ball into big guys hands at the rim or due to an emergency attempt to kick out when one of our guards drove the lane only to find a rim protector in their face at the last minute. Removing the inside game means less passes in traffic and spacing the opposing big out toward the three point line means less rim protection when Brodie or Beard drives.

The Rockets are getting 47 less rebounds over the three game span, but 38 MORE turnovers. And when your team is more efficient at scoring than the opponents on a per possession basis (and the Rockets are more efficient than anybody except maybe the Bucks) turnovers (which give you more possessions) are worth more than defensive rebounds (which deny opponents more possessions).

But here's the insidious thing about turnovers and why they are FAR superior to defensive rebounds. If you are the Rockets and you take a shot and miss and the opponent rebounds that ball, their rebound simply gets them a shot on the other end, the same as if the Rockets had made the bucket. Defensive rebounds prevent 2nd chance points, but they don't create an additional opportunity for the other team to score. It's one possession for the Rockets and one possession for the opponent.

But if the Rockets score and then steal the ball and score again, the turnover has resulted in an "extra" 2 or 3 points that they wouldn't otherwise be able to get. Defensive rebounds don't create additional possessions (and extra shots) but turnovers DO create extra possessions AND extra shots.

That's why the Rockets are losing the Rebound battle so badly, but winning the FGA battle so decisively. And why are other teams turning the ball over so much more? Because they are giving more possessions to big men in traffic who are being covered by smaller, faster defenders who can disrupt plays more often.

Field Goal Percentage

CHA - 47%
HOU - 44%

NOP - 45%
HOU - 39%

DAL - 48%
HOU - 46%

So this is exactly what you might expect with teams having a height advantage. They will be able to get higher percentage shots off against the Rockets by pounding the rock inside and laying it up over shorter defenders.

But because the Rockets average more FGAs a game, this happens:

FGM

CHA - 39
HOU - 43

NOP - 42
HOU - 41

DAL - 43
HOU - 45

So the higher percentage shots the opponent bigs are taking in the lane don't matter because the Rockets are taking MORE total shots and making just as many total field goals as their opponents (actually in 2 of 3 cases - even more!)

But the best part is saved for last:

3 point conversions / attempts:

CHA - 13 for 33
HOU - 20 for 60 (!!!!)

NOP - 10 for 33
HOU - 16 for 51

DAL - 14 for 36
HOU - 21 for 45

And here is where the math advantage destroys other teams. The Rockets are averaging over 50 3 point attempts per game! Even if they shoot in the low to mid 30% range, if you make the same number of FGAs as your opponent and 6 - 7 of those attempts are for 50% more points, you are going to win EVERY GAME, unless your giving up more points at the free throw line....

FTs:

CHA 19 - 24
HOU 19 - 23

NOP - 15 - 20
HOU - 19 - 22

DAL 21 - 27
HOU 17 - 20

....which the Rockets aren't doing. The Rockets used to need a good margin in free throws to consistently win games. With refs denying Harden the calls he used to get, the Rockets can't rely on FTs to help them win games as much as they used to. And we all know that FT calls dry up in the post season, so for playoff basketball, relying on the charity stripe as a way to win games is dangerous. The small ball lineup doesn't need an advantage at the FT line, it just needs relative parity. And it doesn't hurt that we are replacing Capela, a sub 50% shooter at the line, with Roco who is a career 80% shooter.

So all of this analysis could get blown up tomorrow in Staples Center if the Lakers dominate the Rockets inside and the small ball lineup gets exposed. But if it plays in Hollywood like its played so far in Houston, then I think we may want to re-examine our assumptions about how important rebounding percentage and rim protection actually is and how valuable the Capela for Covington trade may turn out to be.
Click to expand...

Awesome!

D-rock · Feb 5, 2020

Joe Smith said: ↑

You think Morey has been building his rosters through the years with Math and Analytics? Was Dwight Howard, Corey Brewer, Josh Smith or the plethora of poor shooters a sign of next level Math? Daryl Morey at this point is just throwing stuff on the wall, and hope something saves his ass, he will be fired this off season anyway!
Click to expand...

LOL

Analytics IS math genius.

bloodwings19 · Feb 5, 2020

Will. Harden has this past few games. If he doesn't bring it, we are as good as the stretch we lost to whoever we played.

Russjr2 · Feb 5, 2020

YOLO said: ↑

they're going to be playing small ball more than ever. There isn't a KAT, AD, Embiid etc coming this way. whoever is coming in, isn't going to be playing nearly as much as CC did
Click to expand...

So you don't think he is trying to get another C with the space we have now? And this new guy can shoot a little bit and rim run (im hoping he will have this skill set anyway) A C that can actually create his own shot a little bit and rebound. I don't think they plan to just play PJ at C for long term. I think they are looking for a new C that fits better than Clint and he will play a lot. I guess we shall see by tomorrow afternoon....

YOLO · Feb 5, 2020

Russjr2 said: ↑

So you don't think he is trying to get another C with the space we have now? And this new guy can shoot a little bit and rim run (im hoping he will have this skill set anyway) A C that can actually create his own shot a little bit and rebound. I don't think they plan to just play PJ at C for long term. I think they are looking for a new C that fits better than Clint and he will play a lot. I guess we shall see by tomorrow afternoon....
Click to expand...

Of course they are but whoever is coming in isn’t going to play nearly as many minutes as CC did as previously mentioned. The big minutes lineups will be centered around small ball. And a traditional big will only be situational and spot minutes

DeBeards · Feb 5, 2020

Good analysis
Since russ may sit due to sprained left thumb, no matter win or not, the coming game against lal may not be served as an sample for your next analysis (lal with full lineup are too much for russ-less rox）.
Anyway, we gonna take it ez and keep witnessing the WIP small ball branded by MDA

Bad news

Good news

Rocket PR · Feb 5, 2020

Great job! Next time Lakers, Clippers and Nuggets

cur.ve · Feb 6, 2020

highest variance here will be turnovers.. but excellent post. thanks for taking the time.

D-rock · Feb 6, 2020

cur.ve said: ↑

highest variance here will be turnovers.. but excellent post. thanks for taking the time.
Click to expand...

This thread needs to stay on first page because CF does not grasp the impact of small ball yet.

snowconeman22 · Feb 6, 2020

cur.ve said: ↑

highest variance here will be turnovers.. but excellent post. thanks for taking the time.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

But teams are gonna respond to us playing small. Before , it was a strategy that teams knew we could break out but also had to plan for 30 min of Clint , which if he had energy is not an easy cover.

Can we get teams to try and abandon some 3's vs us because they perceive getting 2's is now gonna be easier ?

Will there be a gap between our effectiveness in transition and in halfcourt ? If so can we get enough stops to fuel our fast break ? On the other hand can we make enough 3's to keep pressure on the opponent ? Can we get back quickly enough to prevent the other team from turning our higher variance 3's into easy buckets of their own ?

Our offense and defense are tied together . Making us streakier on both ends could make things messy quickly ( this works in our favor too tho)

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