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Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Anxiously awaiting Joe Sestak’s endorsement too!!!
     
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  2. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Politico reports that Mayor Pete's campaign appears poised to be on life support after Iowa and New Hampshire, 10 days out from the Iowa caucuses.

    ‘On life support’: Buttigieg's struggles with black voters threaten his candidacy

    Even as Buttigieg remains in contention to win the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, his failure to gain traction with Democrats of color looks set to arrest any momentum he hopes to generate when the 2020 race leaves those mostly white states. Questions about his weakness among black voters even trailed Buttigieg through Iowa during five days of town halls there last week.

    “If he does well in Iowa, I don’t see [Buttigieg] as dead on arrival here, but he’s certainly on life support in South Carolina,” said state Rep. Gilda Cobb-Hunter, an influential state lawmaker who has not endorsed in the 2020 primary.

    It’s not for lack of “fishing” for support, but “folks aren’t biting,” said Brady Quirk-Garvan, a former chairman of the Charleston Democrats who endorsed Sen. Cory Booker before Booker dropped out of the presidential race earlier this month. “When you’ve dropped that much money and you aren’t seeing movement, then that says something about where your base of support is.”​
     
  3. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    That is not what politico is reporting, the whole article is talking about South Carolina.

    Nobody can san say Pete is not putting in the work reaching out to black voters unlike the rest of the field.

    I thought this was interesting.

    “African Americans can get stuck on what we know, and we know Biden,” said Daekwon Randall, a 20-year-old Claflin University student, who met Buttigieg Thursday night. Randall, who’s still undecided, said he’s considering backing Biden and, now, Buttigieg “after actually meeting him and getting to talk to him.”
     
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  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The gap between Biden and Sanders in the RCP national poll average continues to narrow, and is now down to 6.2 points.

    RCP Poll Average - National
    28.9 - Biden
    22.7 - Sanders
    14.6 - Warren
    07.6 - Bloomberg
    07.4 - Buttigieg

    Bloomberg in fourth place is hanging in there and should probably qualify for the next debate. If Biden falters, Bloomberg is the likely beneficiary. Stay tuned.
     
  5. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    good analysis of the predicament the Dems find themselves in with Bernie surging in Iowa and New Hampshire:

    https://www.powerlineblog.com/archi...f-things-for-dems-gloomy-getting-gloomier.php

    excerpt:

    The problem for Democrats is that taking down Bernie might well ensure they lose the election because lots of Bernie bros won’t vote for Joe Biden or the other powdered milk substitutes. We know a significant portion of Bernie voters in 2016 ended up voting for Trump in November. What might happen this year? A recent Emerson College poll found that only 53 percent of current Bernie voters said they would definitely support another Democratic nominee. The NY Times offers this typical anecdote from the campaign trail:
    We know already that if Trump is re-elected, the left will lose its mind. Biden may still win the nomination after all, but the die is already cast. If Trump defeats Biden (or Klobuchar or Buttigieg), the Democratic Party will lurch even further to the left for 2024, because its Twitter base will run with the theme that it lost because it didn’t embrace Bernie and move far enough left this year. And guess who will be constitutionally eligible to run for president in 2024? (Hint: Her initials are AOC.)

    The long term interests of the Democratic Party would be best served by a landslide loss for Bernie in November, because as was the case after McGovern’s landslide loss in 1972 it will enable the few remaining adults in the party to try to take it back from the reckless “progressives,” though it will be an ugly process that will drive up popcorn prices. Conservatives living in open-primary states (like New Hampshire!) should consider voting for Bernie for just this reason—it guarantees short term victory, and helps the long-term cause of preventing the Democratic Party from becoming completely crazy instead of just the half-crazy that is their default position.
    more at the link
     
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  6. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The Democrats do not seem to be able to refrain from trying to sabotage the campaign if Bernie Sanders. Clearly, they see his candidacy as a serious threat to win the nomination.

    However, they would be smarter to let this play out without interfering and just hope that Joe Biden can keep it together until the convention. Take their chances and let the chips fall where they may.

    If they are seen helping Joe win the nomination by bringing down Bernie through dirty tricks - again - they are going to badly damage the democratic credibility of this party and it's nominating process going forward.

    And they will virtually assure by doing this that Trump wins again in November.

    Nothing good will come out of the Democrats sabotaging the campaign of Bernie Sanders for a second time in a row.
     
  7. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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  8. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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  9. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The Iowa Caucuses are one week from today, and as of today, Bernie Sanders leads in the state polls for both of the first two primary contests in the RCP Poll Average.

    Iowa
    25.0 - Sanders
    22.0 - Biden
    17.0 - Buttigieg
    13.5 - Warren
    08.5 - Klobuchar

    New Hampshire
    23.0 - Sanders
    15.8 - Buttigieg
    14.8 - Biden
    12.4 - Warren
    07.4 - Klobuchar

    Again, if Sanders wins both of these first two contests, the Bernie Bros are going to be elated and will take the stage. This race is going to be ON.

    Meanwhile, in the national polls (which will change after the first two contests above), Joe Biden's lead has been trending steadily downwards over the last month. At that time, Joe led Bernie by 10 by almost 10 points. That lead has been cut nearly in half, and is down to only 5.3 points in the RCP poll average today.

    National
    28.7 - Biden
    23.4 - Sanders
    15.0 - Warren
    07.7 - Bloomberg
    07.1 - Buttigieg

    Movement in the second tier has Warren's support continuing to slowly soften and Mayor Pete has fallen out of the second tier entirely in the national polls, but is still competitive, albeit weakening, in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    In the third tier, both Klobuchar and Bloomberg have improved their poll support notably, Klobuchar in the two early states and Bloomberg nationally, but probably not enough for either of them to make a run at the actual nomination.
     
  10. baller4life315

    baller4life315 Contributing Member

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    Klobuchar is third in the Emerson Iowa poll just released today.

    It’s going to be very interesting to see how it all plays out!
     
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  11. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Early voting is underway in a number of states. Sometimes there are surprises. Iowa caucuses are next Monday. Stay tuned....
     
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  12. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    You have been wrong about everything else in the Democratic Primary , why do you think anyone is going to listen to you now?
     
  13. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Is it your position that I have incorrectly posted the RCP poll averages from today?

    You are just being contentious, just to be contentious. As a result, it is you that lacks credibility here.
     
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  14. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    This does not in any way refute the fact that you have been wrong in every prediction about the Democratic primary.

    This has nothing to do with the poll its your summary and prediction of events in the post that I laugh at.
     
  15. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    But he didn't even make a prediction in the post you replied to?

    I for one, and just happy to see a Trump supporter who doesn't call polling data fake news.
     
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  16. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    So you really think he will not bust out a fake poll blast when it fits his purpose?

    This might be the only post in here that he has not made a prediction that's good I guess?

    My point still remains.
     
  17. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    RCP doesn't have fake polls.

    Mojoman has been following the dem RCP polling since the start of the debates. As much as I might disagree with him politically on a number of issues, he's done nothing wrong and there really isn't anything to call him out on here.

    I don't think a point remains.
     
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  18. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    To be fair, I am not suggesting that anyone just blindly "believe" these polls either.

    However, since there are so many polls that go into these sorts of poll averages, that will presumably moderate any biases or flaws that are contained in the poll results, whether they be in one direction or another. These polls may still be wrong, but it would be surprising if they were more than, say, 10 points wrong. So evaluating these numbers with that in mind should give us a broad idea of what the trends probably are here. Even if the final election results differ, even if by a reasonably good amount.
     
  19. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    So you are fine with saying the democratic candidate will be the one who pulls out the biggest race card or it has to be woman because that's all democrats will vote for.

    This is about more than that single post are you really carping for Mojo because he says favorable things about Berny?

    WOW.
     
  20. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    I don't even know you're saying here, but it doesn't sound smart.

    Mojo and I have legit had multiple convos regarding the RCP polls and candidates for a long time now, he's been honest, respectful and astonishingly apolitical when discussing the polling for some reason, very different from his usual right-wing meme spamming lol. The RCP polls have had Biden as a clear front runner for the nearly the entire time (and still have him up 5% nationally which is significant), this has zero to do with Bernie having an upsurge. These are literally just the factual statistics from the RCP poll collection that he posted.

    Check it out for yourself https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

    I have RCP bookmarked and check it every morning.

    lol
     

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