I am rooting for the Astros to get Wheeler. On the first page of this thread I put him in my wish list. He has amazing stuff. Sprinkle a little Astros magic dust on him and he could be awesome. I feel like the Astros and Nationals being in the World Series with the elite starting pitching has put significant emphasis back on the need for starters around the league. The money could get stupid. Then when you look back at players like Samardzija getting 5 years 90 million and Eovaldi and Happ getting 17 million per year it's easy to see the bidding going nuts for a guy with Wheeler's stuff that is as similar to Cole as anyone else in the league. Phillies will spend as well.
I don't think it'll happen but the score had their free agent predictions and had Houston signing Strasburg. Cole was predicted to the Angel's. Rendon stayed in Washington.
If I’m the Angels owner I am going all in and doing everything possible to sign 2 elite SP (preferably both Cole and Strasburg, but at least one of those plus one from the Wheeler/Odoirizzi/Ryu group). I think Cole is an Angel and Strasburg goes Padres. The Twins, Phillies, Nats, and Braves will also probably spend big. I think Cole, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler will all get over $100M. Donaldson, Grandal, Bumgarner, Osuna, Gregorius, Odorizzi, and Ryu will each break $50M. It’s in the 3rd tier (Keuchel, Hamels, Castellanos, Puig, Gibson, Moustakas, Pineda) of guys who will get $20-50M and the tier below that where I think teams will start getting some good values and where I think Houston will stick. I for one would much rather have Houston spend $200M on a 5 player class of Keuchel, Gibson, Grandal, Smith, and Harris than on Cole. For now I’m setting my expectations that Houston is going to bargain shop for both catchers (Avila, Maldonado) and SP (Porcello, Lyles). That way anything more will be a pleasant surprise.
LOL. I mean, he's put up solid numbers, but his "stuff" just doesn't scream elite or shutdown. Said this before. His pitches just don't appear to have that much movement, nor look filthy (unlike pre-injury Pressly). Just me, though.
I think you’re right, this would be a smart move. I don’t think the Astros are going to want to play agent games. This team wants to win, has a plan and wants to act on it.
I think because Osuna hasn't been nearly as good since his breakout 2017 season, which looks more and more like a fluke rather than what we should expect moving forward. It's true Osuna has an additional year of control over Giles, and even if Osuna is never as good as Giles moving forward, Osuna may yet be more valuable for that reason alone. Also, it still humors me how quickly Astros fans turned on Giles and how nasty they were to him at the time (and many still hate him) when it was clear in 2018 that a lot of his issues (e.g., his extreme LD% that season) would likely regress with time and he would sooner or later return to being elite, which is exactly what happened.
agree. In general I think it’s smarter to prioritize the guys you want and set their price before the market takes shape; if they don’t accept then you can sit back and see which players the market leaves behind. That seems more likely to yield good value than letting the market drive up the price for 2nd and 3rd tier guys after the top guys have signed. In this case, I think that means going after guys like Wheeler or Odorizzi early, and if they don’t sign for the price you want, you turn attention to lower level guys who just want to sign (Porcello, Lyles, etc.). If Houston is going to overpay somebody, Id rather them overpay Lyles by $5M than overpay Wheeler by $20M.
Just a heads up: All “postseason” gear at MMP is 50% off. I went today to exchange some items and found out. Interestingly enough, they have shirts, etc. that are considered “postseason” apparel that are still 50% off, even though the shirts don’t reference the playoffs. For example, my “I literally love Jose Altuve” was discounted. Lots of good stuff on sale.
2017 was Osuna's worst year of his career. He's been better in Houston than any of his years in Toronto.
Why, because he had a high ERA that season? When evaluating his performance, which do you think the Astros placed more importance on when acquiring him, his fluky ERA driven by an extremely low LOB% or the fact that he had 30% K%-BB% that season along with a high GB%?
They are quite a bit different. Osuna had the fifth lowest SIERA of any reliever in baseball that season, besting relievers like Miler, Hand, and Vazquez. Osuna was barely in the top 25 of that metric this season. He's obviously good, but he no loner looks like potentially one of the best relievers in baseball anymore.
If you're talking about someone's best season as a closer, his goals are generally to prevent runs and successfully close games out. He did both of those at the worst rates of his career that year. Evaluating potential future success is different than evaluating actual past results. At the end of the day, the Astros would have preferred giving up 20 hits and no runs in WS Game 7 than 1 hit and 1 run even if the latter outcome was theoretically better. His actual real-life results in Houston have been better than his actual real-life results in 2017.
New York post had their predictions and they had Houston signing Jake Odorizzi for 4 years 66 million. Would that be good or too much?
16.5M AAV. Not bad. Floundered down the stretch but had a great first two-thirds last year. Maybe Strom can "fix" him. Not my first choice but better than, say, Porcello (who I've heard connected to us).
I wonder if JV and Porcello are close. They were on the Tigers together for a while, and I bet they tried to have JV mentor Porcello...both were high draft picks who were brought up young.
I think that’s an fair deal. He was a 4 win pitcher last season and has put up 13.7 war in 1028 career innings. He is about to turn 30. 4 years should be the max length he gets, and anywhere from $10M to $20M AAV is reasonable. Just depends on how the market shakes out.
