If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Wrong again, shockingly

39-11

 

If the team will already be at/or above the luxury tax with the group they have why not just do what you have to do to sign Cole if he's willing to stay here? Any of the guys mentioned above would put them further above the luxury tax as well.

They also need to sign Harris if possible.

 

Interesting...

 

There’s a significant difference between going $10-15M over the tax for 1 season versus giving a pitcher $250M, going $40-50M over the tax for 2 years, and limiting financial flexibility for the next 5 seasons.

I’m not saying they shouldn’t break the bank; it’s not my money and the penalty doesn’t seem that harsh, so my opinion is they should maximize the Altuve/Bregman years because who knows when they’ll be able to put together another group like this.

 

Absent Cole getting hurt in his next 2/3 starts (hopefully he's got that many left) of 2019 there is no way on God's green earth that his next deal is going to start in the 1's. He is a virtual certainty to break the record David Price set, which was what- 7/214 with an opt out at 3 years?

The 33 million might be right as an AAV if some team is willing to go to 8- I could see 8/265 being the number. If the years is 6 (it won't be) he's going to set a new record for AAV at a minimum so what- 36 million x 6 would be 216 million? that sounds right to me for 6, but Boras is going to squeeze for at least 7- so maybe 7/240?

Here is my guess as to how it goes down:

6/215 (or whatever a dollar over David Price 7 year deal is so he's the highest paid pitcher of all time and highest AAV of all time
7/245
8/270
10/300

with 7/245 or 8/270 being most likely to me.

 

The way The Astros develop pitchers, I think they can turn greinke from good to great. Do they go and trust themselves or put their money on cole.

 

I don't think so on Greinke man. That dude is a baseball savant, I bet he's already basically maximized himself, and at 36 the stuff is getting worse, not better.

I think Greinke will be an awesome 3/4 for us next year (and the year after), pitch 200 innings, at well above league average levels, and then slot in as a guy you don't want to pitch before game 3 in a playoff series, and also a guy you only trust to get through the order twice.

Now, there is nothing wrong with that- but it leaves a gaping hole in the 2 slot in the playoffs. Which is, you know, a pretty big deal and the difference, often, between winning or losing a series.

LMJ, if he catches lightning in a bottle could be that guy, I suppose, that slots, stuff wise to answer the bell 2nd in a playoff series. Or, obviously, Whitley could basically solve all our problems and become Glasnow v 2 without the pitch tipping and slide in at 2, with Greinke at 3 and LMJ the floater to come in and cut off their heads for 3 or 4 innings, or start game 4 of a series, or both.

But yeah, Greinke's never going to be someone you want to see pitch in the 2 slot in the playoffs and expect to win the game b/c of pitching anymore. He was, once upon a time, but that's over and done with.

 

It took a Verlander and Cole to cool the Yankees, because the Yankees would have trounced on 99% of pitchers in the MLB. And the Astros could be in dire straits going to a game 4, but whatever happens now, the series will at least come back to Houston, with Cole taking the helm (To finish off the Yankees or to start the World Series). Geesh, the Yankees were sizzling red hot after whipping the Twins; I think they got brought back to earth by our twin aces!

Which could bode well for the Astros in resigning Cole. Because the Astros have a window of opportunity that has them being elite competitive for years to come. Being on a well run organization on the cusp of ingenuity is well worth signing onto....

 

I think most are underselling Greinke, who put up 5.4 fWAR this season. Yes, he is aging, but he is still very, very good; according to that stat he was the 9th best pitcher on earth this year.

If Whitley pans out and everybody stays healthy, they don’t really need Cole next year. But that’s a pretty big if.

I have full confidence in Luhnow when it comes to putting together a rotation.

 

I think Grienke’s career playoff numbers being worse than his regular season numbers isn’t just randomness, just like Kershaws isn’t just randomness.

There is something to be said that hitters tend to be a little more focused/high strung in high stakes baseball and don’t ever give away at bats. Sometimes that works in favor of some pitchers, sometimes it can work against pitchers.

 

I'm not underselling Greinke next year man. He's at the ass end of the top 20 pitchers in the game. He's going to go 20-6 (if healthy) in the regular season and you won't want to pitch him before game 3 in the playoffs. He's an underdog to the 3 hole starters in NYY, TBAY, LAD, WAS and maybe NYM. As a 2 starter he's a dog to anyone I'd be afraid to play.

 

It's ALL about pitching in baseball. Especially in the playoffs!!

If Cole is open to staying you do what you have to make it happen.

If they're concerned about the luxury tax than trade Greinke, Reddick and even Brantley if you have to (that's about 54 mil for the '20 season off the books and a little over 20 mil in '21).

For the next two yrs I'd role with Cole, JV, LMJ at the top of my rotation and with Altuve, Bregman, CC, Springer, Yuli and Alvarez (next yr) and hopefully all of these guys except Springer in '21 (and hopefully they could resign him).

 

Haha, all of you need to stop dreaming. Cole isn’t staying.

 

He's 36 and 5 throwing left handed

 

They dont need Cole next yr? LMAO Every team in baseball needs Cole. As much as I like Springer and Correa I would re-sign Cole and trade them along with Springer/Correa and Reddick to free up money for Cole and use what I got in trade to replace them.

 

yeah hes gonna get rewarded for putting money in the owners pocket. All the merchandise and extra tickets and beers and food and parking ticket and everything that goes with and. Anyways he should be rewarded for that tho.

 

At the start of the season, I was on the fence about going all-out to keep Geritt Cole, but now after his brilliant season and amazing playoffs, I feel like you have do it. Whatever it takes.

Look around, the Nationals are showing everyone right now how far great pitching can take you even after you lose a superstar bat like Bryce Harper. That's why I feel we should trade Springer instead and keep the superstar pitching we have. Cole is only 29 years old and I think of him as Verlander's replacement long term as the number 1 pitcher we could have for the next decade.

Verlander, Cole, Greinke, McCullers, Whitley, Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Alvarez -- that's a World Series contender for the next 5 years.

 

Eh - I don't think the Nationals are the model you want to follow. All their elite pitching got them to a Wild Card game that they were losing until their offense teed off on an elite closer. All this postseason elite pitching this year wouldn't be looking quite as great if the baseballs hadn't been de-juiced.

Nationals also were #6 in offense this year (#2 in the NL) and #13 in pitching. And they made a World Series but haven't won it as of now.

2018 - Boston had the #1 offense in baseball and #8 ERA.
2017 - Astros had the #1 offense and #11 ERA.
2016 - Cubs had the #2 offense and #1 ERA.
2015 - Royals had the #7 offense and #10 ERA.

The best pitching staffs in baseball routinely get knocked out of the playoffs early. Tampa Bay was #1 this year. Astros were #1 last year. Cleveland the year before that. There's no single way to win a World Series, but top offenses combined with good pitching do pretty well. Our own Astros, in particular, won a World Series with a dominant offense and a pitching staff that repeatedly melted down all throughout the World Series.

 

Difference between Bryce and Springer is leadership and playoffs. Bryce is no leader (comparatively at least) and regresses come postseason. George does the exact opposite and won't cost nearly as much money.