Springer will be pricey. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html Astros (10) George Springer – $21.4MM Brad Peacock – $4.6MM Jake Marisnick – $3.0MM Aaron Sanchez – $5.6MM Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.1MM Carlos Correa – $7.4MM Roberto Osuna – $10.2MM Chris Devenski – $2.0MM – club option for $2.825MM Joe Biagini – $1.5MM Aledmys Diaz – $2.4MM
If you hypothetically sign all arb, spend $40M on Cole, Chirinos, and Maldanado, and trade Reddick you would end up with a team salary of ~$235-240M.
if i had choice i would get rid of springer and resign cole. We can rebuild around cole and verlander easily.
Did this calculation a couple of days ago: Assuming adding catchers, RPs and dropping Reddick's contract is a net zero in dollars, adding Cole ($33M a year) would bring cost to $266 actual money and $253M for tax purposes. This includes filling out roster with minimum contracts and player benefits. Edit: Also assumes not keeping Sanchez.
I would get rid of Greinke before I got rid of Springer if I was Lunhow and desperate to cut salary to re-sign Cole.
Assuming the money is going towards Cole, you could pretty easily non tender/trade Peacock and Sanchez. Add in Devenski and Marisnick and it's about 14-15 million saved. Even still we're talking a payroll/LT bill over 250 million dollars. Even if you remove Cole from the equation entirely we're gonna be north of 200 million. That's already up in Red Sox/Dodger/Yankee land. Given the relative size of our income compared to theirs, it could very well be the single biggest financial statement in modern sports if Crane signs Cole. That's an awful big ask for a guy that to the best of my knowledge still owes investors money.
Why it is/was imperative to make at the very least the ALCS this season. Playoff revenue is imperative to ownership when you have a high payroll and it's a reason why a team outside of the big 2 markets can sustain it. Further the team goes, higher likelihood that they are able to make a competitive offer for G.
George Springer – $21.4MM Brad Peacock – $4.6MM Jake Marisnick – $3.0MM Aaron Sanchez – $5.6MM Lance McCullers Jr. – $4.1MM Carlos Correa – $7.4MM Roberto Osuna – $10.2MM Chris Devenski – $2.0MM Joe Biagini – $1.5MM Aledmys Diaz – $2.4MM Justin Verlander - $33 million Zach Greinke - $35 million (Astros only pay $24.6 million) Jose Altuve - $29 million Alex Bregman - $13 million Yuli Gurriel - $8.4 million Josh Reddick - $13 million Michael Brantley - $16 million Ryan Pressly - $8.75 million That is $208 million dollars for 18 players. The Astros would be losing Cole, Chirinos, Maldonado, Smith, Harris, Rondon, Mchugh, Miley So even at $208 million the Astros would need a #4 and #5 pitcher. There is a good chance one of those two would be from inside the organization. The Astros would have bullpen needs, but could likely fill most of those internally. So how could the Astros clear some space? Subtract: Sanchez (5.6), Marisnick (3.0), Reddick (13.0) and you are at 177 million and still need likely a starting pitcher, one bullpen arm and two catchers. Subtract Greinke and you are at 153 million but with a lot of holes to fill. Lets assume Cole gets 38 million a year....... Without Greinke, etc the Astros are at 191 million dollars with the team needing to add two starting pitchers, two catchers and at least one reliever from outside the organization. The Astros would get good value in a deal for Greinke and could possibly fill one or two of these holes that way.
yeah zach and osuna. That frees up about 35 mil almost. Should be enough for Cole. If we win this year i have a strong feeling he will return if we off him that much.
The real issue is going to be the length of the contract, because Cole is unlikely to be able to cash in when he's 34 or 35 years old - so now's the time to try to lock in as many years as he can. Trading Zach and Osuna frees up money for 1-2 years, but that's not as relevant to the long-term.
The Astros are going to let Cole walk and sign someone like Weeler or trade for a cost controlled guy instead
This, and Whitley I am confident will be ready to contribute sometime next year. Also, Urquidy, Bielak, Ivey, maybe even Conine can piece together a few spot starts here and there.
This years roster is perfect (almost- would have been perfect if Tucker and Whitley arrived on time as at least ~2 WAR average regulars) because it has both depth and high end talent. High end talent is what wins WS for you in October- Depth is what makes sure you get there and cruise along through the grind of 162 Next year we won't be able to have both. If I had to choose, I'd choose high end talent to keep Cole (and maybe sign someone good at catcher) and I'd be willing to trade/non-tender Reddick, Sanchez, Biagini, Marisnick, Devo, Peacock, Brantley, Osuna, in order of easiest for me to part with to free up cash to most difficult. If you got rid of all those guys I listed and threw in both the catchers and Cole's salary this year you'd have $70,000,000.00. You could get Cole and Grandal, and good prospects for moving on from Brantley and Osuna, and someone interesting for moving on from Peacock and Marisnick I'd think. JV, Cole, Greinke, LMJ, Uriquidy (with Whitley waiting in the wings) Closer- Presley 8th inning- James 5 minimum salary guys- $115,000,000 to pitching staff- Grandal Yuli Altuve Correa Bregman Tucker Springer Straw Alvarez Diaz, Stubbs, minimum, minimum, That's probably the greatest lineup ever? $115,000,000. So, $230,000,000 payroll and maybe the greatest post season team ever when roster spots 1-16 are the most important. If Whitley ends up good then LMJ goes to the bullpen in the post season and you hope that your 8 pitchers of JV, COle, Greinke, Whitley, Presley, James, LMJ with Uriquidy as the oh ****- we need 4 quality innings guy is good enough. The lineup doesn't need a pinch hitter, or defensive replacement or anything anywhere, and you do have Diaz as the utility guy. That's a lineup that will **** people up in October. It's also a roster that isn't near as good as this years roster for 162 games, imo. But it's good enough to get you there, probably with 100 wins, if reasonably healthy.
