If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

I completely agree- I’d be shocked to see him come back. I just don’t think keeping around Brantley and Reddick (those salaries plus Cole current salary add up to way more than Coles AAV will be) at the expense of Cole makes any sense.
I’d offer him 10/250 personally. But I don’t think the Astros FO will do that and I don’t think he’d accept. I’m with you I’m believing Cole is gone.

 

Sanchez is gone as he’s hurt most of the year (and it’s his walk year so why bother keeping him around and paying him). Chuckles the clown has spent all his time in Houston ******** the bed since coming over from Toronto.
Reddick is a 4th OF at best, Marisnick can’t hit, Robson and Smith are JAGS making a combined 12 million with zero chance of coming back.
Maldonado is meh.
The only 2 people on that list that would be missed, come winning time in October, are Harris and Brantley, and I’m pretty convinced that having 6 all star pitchers and an absurd lineup would make the Astros the favorite next October in a way they wouldn’t be if Cole moves on.

 

Getting rid of Reddick, Brantley and Marisnick is a major blow to our offensive depth.

If Springer were to get injured, whom would you field in the OF?

It looks like your everyday OF would be Alvarez, Tucker and Straw, with zero backups.

You are also proposing we throw a massive haul of innings from arms that are not used to large workloads.

Honestly, do you ever see the FO doing this??

 

While that’s true, HOU will also have an offer. Whether it’s competitive is beyond their control. But they could feasibly offer enough to make Cole consider it, especially if he enjoys Houston (and our, ahem, way better tax rate than Cali).

 

That's the interesting part. Offering ANYTHING to Cole is a commitment to break the luxury tax threshold by a wide margin. Is Crane even willing to do that?

 

No I don’t. I already said as much right above.

 

He loves seeing his team all over TV networks, seeing beat writers talking about the Stros non stop, all over social media, Nationally Televised games, big crowds even on Mondays, being the most loved owner of a sports franchise in Houston, etc. No way did he imagine all of this when he bought a 100+ loss team.

I honestly think he'll pay the tax for a year at least, maybe 2 and let Lunhow work his magic to get us back under the tax threshold before year 3 when the heavy tax hits. We also have the new labor agreement coming in 2021 and he knows we have a pretty much once in a lifetime core so let's go all out before the players assumed "strike" or whatever comes of the meetings. I mean they are being compared to the best ever, the Yankees Murderers Row. He loves this. All Billionaires have an ego that needs to be stroked, they cannot deal with failure particularly well, especially after being at the top and the accolades that come with winning it all.

I really believe he's going to do everything he can to keep Cole, and showing that he's willing to pay millions on taxes for a few more years of being a WS contender might go a long way helping keep Cole. If the guy decides to leave for some insane contract even if he's close dollar wise, there is nothing he can do about that. Cole seems very, very happy here. He also loves pitching with Verlander as they're both analytical lab rats and has admitted he's never played with a mix of fun personalities ever in his career from college on up.

I may be wish casting, but I hope we land this storm.

 

Trade Correa to Tampa for Shane Baz and Jake Cronenworth. Non-tender Sanchez (not that great outside the no-no, plus will be out for much of the season). Salary dump Reddick for a lottery prospect. May need to attach someone of decent value, though, but clear the $$$ and roster spot. Maybe Gurriel too. Despite his historic June/July, he has cooled as of late, and that pace was obviously impossible to maintain mathematically. Up in age and still gonna cost $8M. If a team wants a veteran and takes the whole contract, I think we can fill his production. I'd love to make as much space available for Cole as possible. He is THAT special.
Re-sign Cole. Bite the bullet and pay the tax in 2020 if necessary. Roll with JV, Cole, and Greinke leading the rotation. Salary dump Greinke after 2020 (he'd only have one $20M year left, makes room for arb increases), plug Baz in his spot. Let me dream.

 

They're not trading Gurriel. Even though he's 35, he fields great and rarely strikes out. He also seems to get the important hits at the right time and the Stros have been without a true 1st baseman for a long time. He isn't going anywhere and his clubhouse presence is pretty special according to all of his teammates plus he's Alvarez's mentor. He's needed

 

Reddick makes sense. Trading Brantley, Gurriel or any other key role player just to save some budget is ludicrous.

 

Well said nook. I don’t know what is more difficult: thinking about the loss of Cole on our roster, or thinking about all of the possible acquisitions that we won’t get in the next 5+ years if we do Sign him.

 

Cole doesn’t stop us from getting those guys. He will have an AAV the same as Verlanders and Verlanders contract didn’t preclude them from getting Greinke, extending Bregman etc. Verlander comes off the books in 2021 (as does Greinke) so Cole would just be a replacement for JV.

 

I guess you think our budget is in infinity mode. Also, Verlander and Greinke are both under contract until 2022.

 

How much more $ does a team make after winning a World Series vs losing in the playoffs? In other words what was 2017 worth vs 2018 in terms of gate, merchandise, etc.?

I think if you take 3 points into consideration:

1) Tax savings on the contract in TX vs CA for Cole
2) Working the roster to dip into LT only once or twice
3) Winning it all this year and the full realization that you are fielding the best roster EVER and you want to keep it going not just for history but also the boost in earnings

I think there is a legit shot. I know it’s a business but as an owner of a sports team this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to make your mark. To be regarded in the same conversation as the 27 Yankees a team from almost 100 years ago!

If they win this year I think they make it happen.

 

I wonder if Crane is more likely to splurge if we win or lose this year?

 

I said they come off the books in 2021 on JV and Greinke and that’s right. 2021 is the last year we will pay them.
I’m not under the impression we have an unlimited budget. What I am saying, and it’s all I’m saying, is They could pay Cole in 2020 by getting rid of Reddick and Brantley, and the net of getting rid of Reddick and Brantley would be “free” if taken together. Then, 2021 gets a little dicey and 2022 you lose a ton of money off the books.

I don’t believe Cole will be back. This is all theoretical.

 

This question is all academic. The assumption is that Astros are very profitable right now, and the only thing that matter is if Crane is willing to potentially lose money the next 1 or 2 years because of the LT to field a potential dynasty. Hopefully the profit the last 2 years and any potential gains from ticket sale coming from another WS win, will cover any loss he will take for the next 2 years. As a fan, I hope the answer is yes. To do my part, I promise that I will come down to Houston for at least 4 games next year if we resign Cole.

 

Cards dodged a bullet letting Pujols go after 30.

They could use the FA excuse, but paying a guy like Altuve 30 million a year when you have a loaded lineup isn't worth sacrificing an elite SP like Cole. Fans need to man up and think multiple multiples.

 

Thanks Pete.

 

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