If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-minor-rangers-200-strikeouts

Imagine having to drop an out to get your second pitcher to 200 strikeouts. Pass.
Pay the man.

 

My point to the poster I responded to was, what if a team that is a “winner” is the highest bidder?

 

I would look into trading Altuve and Greinke before letting Cole walk, whiny fans be darned. It is imperative to have a long term centerpiece at SP . . . Cole is it.

 

Did you just mic drop me?

 

Not sure how the contract structures work in regards to the cap, but is there a way to let’s say.... back load the contract?
25 mil for first 2, 35 mil for next 2, 45 mil for last 2? (or something similar) Thats 6/210. Would that lower our cap hit initially but push it downline for the last few seasons when lets say this core is about done?

Or is there a minimum percentage or amount per year? Just trying to think outside of the box here.

 

It’s an average annual value (AAV).

The only way to manipulate this is to give him a lifetime contract like Bobby Bonilla, and pay him for the next 40 years. Unfortunately, this of course would commit us to paying him way beyond his service time, and it would hit our cap for the next four decades. Only the Pirates Have been willing to do that, and we see how good of management they have.

 

I was thinking about this and I think it’s an absolute no brainer to trade Brantley and Reddick and re-sign Cole. This year, Brantley, Reddick and Cole between them make what, $42 million. Add in Springer and that’s like 58? My guess is for 58 million we could extend Springer and Cole, and Brantley and Reddick could get moved for nothing so we’d be net neutral.
If then becomes Springer, Tucker and Alvarez/straw/Marisnick.
That’s a better team and better positioned for the long term than keeping Brantley and Reddick and letting Cole go.

 

Brantley’s $16M is not the difference between signing Cole or not. He’s not getting traded. The only questions are (in order):

Can the revenues support a payroll in excess of $230M plus the associated fees?

Does Crane want to win at all costs?

Is Gerrit Cole (at his market price to come back to Houston) a better value than the other options (extending Correa, multiple other free agents, etc.)?

If the answer to those 3 questions is yes, Cole will be an Astro. Otherwise, not happening.

Reddick is likely to be traded because his contract is a bad value and he is essentially blocked now by Tucker. It really doesn’t have anything to do with Cole or even really payroll constraints.

 

Interesting idea. You could probably get some nice replenishment for the farm for Brantley as opposed to letting him walk next year. As much as it would suck to lose his steady bat, we are as prepared as you could possibly be to replace that production. Though I don't think Alvarez or Straw are good solutions as regular outfields, so I'd look to sign someone cheaper on a short deal.

Trading Altuve would be a disaster from a clubhouse and fan-base perspective. Not a chance.

 

Just for the sake of balance, while we all agree Cole is a badass, it’s not a no brainer to give him $200M just because he’s only 29 and about to win a Cy Young. Think about what Luhnow can do with that money. $200M is:

15 Dallas Keuchel 1 year deals
12 Charlie Fn Morton 2 year deals
9 Yasmani Grandal 1 year deals
8 DJ LeMahieu 2 year deals
6 Lance Lynn or Mike Minor 3 year deals
6 Michael Brantley 2 year deals
3 Yuli Gurriel 4 year deals

If they’re paying $200M for essentially 5 years of production, it may be better to spread it out to other need areas (replacements for Brantley, Gurriel, Springer, and multiple SP).

 

I’m talking about payroll numbers for 2020 when I talk about Brantley- it’s not about $16 million (or 13 million with Reddick) it’s about just 2020. You can fit an extended springer and a Cole signing in there in 2020 with no delta between 19 and 20 salary. It means scrambling multiple times down the road to flip and cycle, but I’m more interested in keeping the window of amazing ness open right now than worrying about 2024 if you might be paying Cole too much.

 

Bregman makes $20 million more for tax purposes. Guys on arbitration will likely get substantial raises. 2020 budget is already about 2019 budget despite Cole, McHugh, Smith, Rondon, Chirinos, and Maldonado coming off the books if not re-signed factoring in Bregman extension and arbitration raises.

If budget stays about the same, Luhnow has serious work to do to make room for cheap free agent catchers and pitchers in budget.

 

If you re-sign Cole and don’t trade Greinke you don’t need to sign a single FA pitcher- you just go with all in-house guys. Also, you non tender the BJ pitching duo and save some money there.

I could get the budget under $208, with Cole in it, pretty easily.

 

The Astros have been very clear by their actions what they believe will happen. They assumed quite a bit of salary and traded good prospects for a new #2, and they fought Correa over $750K while giving Springer extra money for goodwill.

Rarely are the tea leaves this clear...

 

These are very contradictory posts.

 

It would be easy to trade Brantley and Reddick (as a combined duo) with no money or prospect cost attached to it. Whatever surplus you get in trading Brantley gets attached to Reddick to take on his salary. This squad costs less than 208 million, for example, and comes with an extended Cole and springer at 5/100 and 6/210 (assuming those numbers are ballpark correct

JV, Greinke, Cole, LMJ, uriquez- 98- million
Yuli, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz- 65 million
Springer, Tucker, Straw, Alvarez, Aaaa guy- 22 million
Osuna, Pressley, Framber, Whitley, Devo, James, 3 minor leaguers- 17 million
Chirinos or Maldonado and Stubbs- 6 million.

208,000,000. That team is favored to win 105 - 110 with good health, but more importantly come playoff time you have 4 all star pitchers, 2 bullpen hammers, and a better 1-9 lineup than what we trotted out most of the year. You’d be sacrificing a little depth in the 162 game grind for high end talent in playoffs.

That’s the argument to keep Cole at the cost of some quality and depth, he makes the top of your roster stronger and the top of your roster is what wins playoff games.

 

Cole'e contract looks about 5-10 million light here.
Where are the replacement costs? Gotta bank at least 3 million in emergency call ups.
You're also missing about 15 million in player benefits.

So your easy 208M budget is really a 231-236M budget without looking hard.

 

The Astros will be a contender next year with or without Cole. I love the guy, but I don’t see him coming back.

 

The budget is already almost at 208, without Cole, and with the loss of about 7 other FAs.

 

So you want to trade Brantley, Reddick, Peacock, Biagini, Sanchez and Marisnick....

and replace each of these....

AS WELL AS,

replace Maldanado (or Chirinos), Harris, Smith, Miley and Rondon....

10 ACTIVE ROSTER SPOTS!!!!

....all replaced with AAA players.

so we can stay under budget for one year and give Cole a long term contract with an AAV of Verlander $$ for 4-6 years


Dude, that's crazy. And not in a good way.