If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Yep, Astros budget would likely need to soar over the luxury tax threshold to keep Cole, fill out rest of team, and not trade away valuable contributors. The Astros just don't have much fat on the budget. Astros are likely upside down only on Reddick's contract at this point. It is up to Crane as Astros budget is already full of great players on great deals/club control very close to the luxury tax threshold.

I doubt Astros look 20 years ahead. I expect they look closely a year or two ahead and have rough projections for 5-7 years out. Astros look like they will be great in 2020 and 2021. I think this offseason, Astros FO is mostly going to try to get catchers under contract (probably getting money by trading away Reddick) and a pitcher or two for next year, but also probably start looking at 2022 pretty soon. My guess would be that the FO thinks they will likely need financial might in 2022 more than 2020.

 

Someone needs to sell Crane on how rare it is to have a dominant team with a legit chance to win 3 of 4 or something like that. All of the merchandising for a would outstrip the cost of the tax. Plus if he goes into the tax to do it, he would become beloved amongst Astros fans. He could be super cheap after this crop of players is gone, the average fan would probably give him a pass.

When does the broadcasting agreement with AT&T expire? That timing could also be important.

 

I don’t think we really have any idea what our financials look like, which makes it difficult to speculate about whether or not Crane would bust over the tax threshold to sign Cole.

All we have is what we have done in the past.

 

Has Crane said anything to indicate a willingness to cross the luxury tax threshold?

 

I can see the team paying the tax for 2020, but definitely not continually given the escalating cost. Of course who knows what will happen after 2021 with the CBA expiring, so the 50% tax may not even exist at that point.

I wonder if the FO would consider trading Greinke if they managed to keep Cole? Greinke is a great boost to the current team, and helps mitigate losing Cole, but his contract is also something that makes re-signing Cole more difficult.

 

This is what he said about a year ago:

“certainly we’re not going over [the luxury-tax threshold] -- but we could move closer to that,” Crane said. “We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We’ll stay within the strike zone.”

Has he changed his tune:

Well he hasn't said he intends to going into the luxury tax, the closest he has come is that he recently comments that the Astros resigning Cole would likely mean the Astros would be in the luxury tax.

Looking at the Astros roster, the salaries, anticipated tax line (208 million) and the increases in arbitration and ......... well it will be hard for the Astros to avoid the tax regardless.

 

Right. To me the Greinke deal to me opened up the possibility of Crane being willing to go over, since as you said there’s almost no way to avoid it now. And if you’re going over, the amount/penalty isn’t really that impactful unless you go over 3 years in a row. So it makes some sense to me that they might have said F it let’s go balls out these next 2.5 seasons then let the chips fall where they may and reassess.

 

Couldn't it be their plan to ship Reddick out this winter, even if it means having to move prospects given Reddick's salary? Would that not be enough to get them under the luxury tax in view of the signings they will need to make this off-season?

 

Cole just had the most dominant 4 months I have ever seen. He’s only 29.

6 yrs 200 mil

 

His agent is going to want to break records. Boras will probably start at 7 years $245M ($35M AAV). Someone will meet him at 6 years $210M

 

The Astros will certainly try to move Reddick. They tried to move him this last off season in an effort to resign Morton and sign Brantley. The Astros passed on that possibility because the prospect cost was too high. With only one year left it is very possible he is moved.

Even moving Reddick, it will be difficult to avoid the 208 million line. They will need to add someone to the bullpen, likely another starting pitcher and they will need to add at least one catcher.

 

As Greinke is on a short, Astros favorable contract, I doubt Astros FO has any interest in moving him while they are close to the luxury tax threshold.

 

To be fair, this Astros organization wants to win more then we do. They want to continue to build teams to give them a chance to win now and in the future.

I would love to have Cole and would crunch numbers to find the best available contract we could give.

But... at then end of the day, we can’t let a huge contract impend our quest for continual success.

Maybe Astros sign Cole, maybe we sign MadBum and bring new life to his career like Cole... maybe it’s something else.

End of the day... it’s good to know this Organization cares about winning.

 

All I am going to say is thank God Drayton isnt in that suite anymore.

Phewwww

 

Factor in the tax, and it becomes less friendly, it clears payroll for 2 years, and it would result in a prospect return unlike Josh Reddick, which at best would probably be us trading for a similar overpaid player (which isn't a terrible idea if we could get a catcher or P).

I agree that it would be doubtful, but I think more than anything it would be because other veterans will be upset. Reddick is popular with the team, but I think players can understand it more because of Yordan's ascension (plus Kyle Tucker) and Josh's relatively mediocre production the last 2 years.

 

$250M/8yrs. $35M/yr for age 29-34, then $20M/yr for 35-36. He could be worth that much over just the first 4 seasons. He could also fall apart and be worth less than half that over the entire rest of his career. Risky deal.

 

If Greinke's contract is unfriendly because of the tax, Cole's will be worse. If tax is a problem, there are other players on less bang for the buck deals than Astros portion of Greinke's contract that will be jettisoned first. I expect Reddick is sent with a lottery ticket elsewhere, and then Astros use that money on a catcher.

I think Brantley would be dealt before Greinke.

 

so if he goes to a team in Cali, then people will say he just wanna play close to home. If he goes to the highest bidder, that means he's after $ over winning.

 

What if the highest bidder is the Yankees or Red Sox or another winning team?

 

The Red Sox are maxed out. They're not even going to be able to resign Mookie.