Check out the area in the Gulf in our neck of the woods. Also, a couple more barreling in towards us. 38 Disturbance 38 is currently located over the east central Bahamas. A slow track towards the northwest is expected over the next few days while gradually strengthening. A turn more towards the north and northeast is forecast to occur Sunday into early next week, and the system will likely pass east of Florida and the Carolinas. However, some of the outer rainbands could bring some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to coastal areas. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 39 is located along 36W and is moving towards the west at around 15 mph. The system has some thunderstorm activity and limited rotation associated with it. A continued westward motion is expected over the next several days. The disturbance will likely be near the Lesser Antilles early next week, where conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development. The chance of tropical development over the next week is 50 percent. A disturbance may form in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Conditions could be marginally favorable for some brief development before the system likely moves inland into Texas early next week. Regardless of development, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible in south Texas from this disturbance. The chance of tropical development is 5 percent. Disturbance 40 has been identified along 23W. A track towards the west is expected over the next few days. Conditions could become favorable for some development by early next week. The chance of tropical development over the next week is 20 percent. Disturbance 37 is along 58W and is moving towards the west-northwest at around 10 mph. The system continues to weaken, and will likely dissipate this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical development is not expected.
Humberto Tropical Storm Humberto is currently located about 200 miles east-southeast of Freeport, Bahamas. Winds are estimated to be around 40 mph. The system will likely track towards the north and northwest over the next few days, followed by a turn towards the east and northeast next week. No significant impacts are anticipated in the United States. Periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall can be expected in the northern Bahamas today. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 41 has been identified in the central Gulf of Mexico. The system is currently a mid to upper-level low pressure area. Conditions could become favorable for some tropical development over the next few days before it moves inland into Texas early next week. If development occurs, the system likely wouldn't become stronger than a weak tropical storm. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring a threat of heavy rainfall to Texas next week. The chance of tropical development is 20 percent. Disturbance 40 is located along 32W and is moving towards the west at around 10 mph. The system will likely continue to track westward over the next several days. The disturbance has become better organized over the past 24 hours, and model support has increased. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical storm could form early next week. The chance of tropical development over the next week is 50 percent. Disturbance 39 is located along 45W and is moving towards the west at around 25 mph. The system has weakened over the past 24 hours, and model support has decreased as well. A continued westward motion is expected over the next several days. The chance of tropical development over the next week is 20 percent. Disturbance 37 has dissipated and has been removed from our analysis. September 17-19 - Disturbance 41 - Coastal Texas Predictions for Galveston, TX Amount: 2 to 4 isolated 6 inches of rain Threat: Slight Chance of Excessive Rainfall Timing: midnight Sep 17 to midnight Sep 20, 2019 CDT Discussion: Forecast Confidence Average Changes From Previous Forecast This is the initial forecast for this event. Our Forecast Disturbance 41 is currently located in the central Gulf of Mexico. The system will likely track westward over the next few days, and may slow down as it moves into Texas next week. There is a 20 percent chance that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm could form before pushing inland. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring a risk of heavy rainfall to the region. The latest model guidance is indicating that coastal portions of Texas could see 2-4 inches of rain during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Locally higher amounts will be possible. Main Impacts Localized flash flooding is likely. Ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas is expected. Minor travel delays are also likely, with localized longer delays possible.
Hold onto your britches people. Don’t be surprised if the greater Houston area doesn’t pick up anywhere between 20 and 30 inches of rain over the next 72 hours or so
Humberto Hurricane Humberto is located about 585 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Humberto is moving to the east-northeast at 8 mph. Maximum winds are near 90 mph. The hurricane is forecast to strengthen and pass close enough to Bermuda to produce significant impacts on Wednesday evening into early Thursday. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch The latest surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen slightly across the northwestern Gulf and a trough of low pressure has developed overnight from along the upper Texas coast to about 60 miles to the east-southeast of Port Aransas, Texas. Disturbance 41 has been slow to move over the past several hours. However, it is forecast to drift northward towards Matagorda Bay and will move ashore tonight or early Wednesday near or to the northeast of Matagorda Bay. There is an increasing chance that the disturbance could develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm later today or tonight before moving inland. However, the primary concern will be heavy rainfall regardless of whether or not it develops. Due to the slow motion of this system, heavy rainfall and flooding will occur over portions of coastal and southeastern Texas later today through Thursday. The best chance of heavy rainfall will occur on the backside of the system on Wednesday and into Thursday for coastal and southeastern Texas. The chance of development is estimated at 40 percent for today through tonight before moving inland. Disturbance 40 is located about 1000 miles to the east of Barbados. It is moving towards the west-northwest at around 12 mph. Conditions will be favorable for development over the next few days. The disturbance is forecast to pass about 150 to 200 miles to the north of the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands on Friday night into Saturday. The system may turn northward and pass well east of the Bahamas early next week. The chance of tropical development is estimated at 80 percent over the next seven days. Disturbance 39 is located over Puerto Rico along 67W. It is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. The disturbance has weakened a bit over the past 24 hours. However, it will continue to enhance thunderstorm activity across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today. This disturbance may dissipate over the next day or two. Tropical development is not expected. Disturbance 42 is located about 575 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands along 34W. It is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph. There is a very low chance that the system may develop over the next couple of days before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development. The system may dissipate well to the east of the Caribbean. The chance of tropical development is estimated at 5 percent. September 16-19 - Disturbance 41 - Texas Predictions for Galveston, TX Amount: 8 to 10 isolated 14 inches of rain Threat: Moderate Chance of Excessive Rainfall Timing: 11PM Sep 16 to 11PM Sep 19, 2019 CDT Discussion: Forecast Confidence Average Changes From Previous Forecast Increased the development chances of Disturbance 41 up to 40 percent. Our Forecast Disturbance 41 is a broad area of low pressure located off the middle Texas coast. The system will likely track slowly to the northwest and move into the Texas coast near or just north of Matagorda Bay late Tuesday night. There is a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm could form before pushing inland. Regardless of development, this system will result in a risk of heavy rainfall across the eastern half of the state tonight through Thursday. The latest forecast guidance indicates that the system will slow down over the eastern half of the state over the next few days. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches can be expected, although pockets of 8-12+ inches will be possible where heavy training bands of storms develop. Please note that much of this rainfall could occur during a short period of time, as rainfall rates could reach up to 3-4 inches per hour in the heavier storms. Main Impacts Localized flash flooding is likely. Urban and small stream flooding is possible, especially in low lying and flood prone areas. Larger streams and rivers could see prolonged high water and reach flood stage. Minor travel delays likely, with localized longer delays possible.
I haven't watched local news for a couple days and find out this morning that we're likely in for some hard flooding. And I was hoping we'd dodged the hurricane season. Not quite!
The NAM is projecting 28" of rain here through Friday. It's the NAM though. It's the troll of Forecast models everyone laughs at.
Nam is a good model just don't expect to use it for hurricane tracking. That is not it's purpose. FYI. The low the coast is now TD 11. Some of these models spell trouble for us again with flooding. Let's hope it's not too bad.
It's the NAM Precipitation forecast so I believe so. Who knows though. Now saying it will probably be a TS in 12 hours and its expected to stall or just crawl slowly north. Drought be gone.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to come into the office instead of work from home. Yeah, like you were saying earlier, my front lawn is looking like a gigantic haystack right now even though I've been watering 3 times a week. Guess I can put away the sprinkler now....