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The Chance of War with Iran

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by mtbrays, May 15, 2019.

  1. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Now that the N Korea war is over, are we still going to war with Iran? Maybe some of the hyper intelligent individuals in this forum can give an inside scoop.
     
  2. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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  3. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Contributing Member

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    Let me guess, you, a fervent trump defender, have no concerns at all with trump tweeting the photo he apparently saw in an intelligence briefing?
     
  4. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    Which deal was that? Because the one we exited didn't prevent Iran from developing one, at all. It may have delayed it some, but prevent? Absolutely not.
     
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  5. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    Actually, the order is:

    Japan initiated bombing of Pearl Harbor
    Japan declared war on the U.S.
    Japanese submarines attacked coast of Oregon (several months later)
    Japanese attacked Los Angeles.​
     
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  6. Torn n Frayed

    Torn n Frayed Member

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    Y'all...! Pffft he was only kidding!!! Or joking....
     
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  7. Buck Turgidson

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    When did this happen?
     
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  8. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    Is intel briefing in digital form now? Seriously, how did trump get this image in a form that allow it to be tweeted through his account? Intel folks might want to stop sharing in such form going forward.


    Ps that’s one impressive high resolution aerial photo.

    Edit: didn’t see your other posts. A cell phone photo? And possibly tweet from it? Or transfer of it to another device that he use for tweeting?
     
    #388 Amiga, Aug 30, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
  9. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    Would you prefer to stay in a deal that have verifiable metrics, such as uranium limit? Or to exit with absolutely no plan for a new deal, which has directly resulted in Iran exceeding at least that one limit that they didn’t prior while under the deal?

    Trump actions here to exit the nuke deal has made the world less safe and posses additional risk with NOTHING in return.
     
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  10. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Trump is the biggest moron to ever step into the White House.
     
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  11. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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  12. AleksandarN

    AleksandarN Member

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    I am sure the Saudi’s gave him and his family something. He is not going empty handed.
     
  13. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    source looks questionable and makes questionable claims... you can't for sure determine the pixel capability of the satallite that took the photo.. too many possible variables involved in editing and and printing a document like that and then taking a photo of the photo.
     
  14. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    All of which would only reduce and not enhance the image resolution. IOW, the estimated (not "SURE") resolution capacity of the source, based on a photo that at best matches the original, may be wrong but more likely toward the conservative side. This is an analysis done by an astronomer with data from others. In the hand of government intelligence, they can do a much more through analysis.

    One interesting thing here was it seems others were assuming a drone and this analysis indicate a spy satellite (that these astronomer have been tracking). If so, the good news there is no violation of Iranian airspace... the bad news - some secret revealed.

    https://github.com/cbassa/satellite_analysis/blob/master/nahid1_launch_failure_analysis.ipynb
     
  15. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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  16. dachuda86

    dachuda86 Member

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    That photo may not be full zoom so big deal... it may have been changed in processing. This is not a huge bombshell.
     
  17. Amiga

    Amiga I get vaunted sacred revelations from social media
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    Zoom factor doesn’t matter for estimating the source resolution and what secret sat could take the photo.

    The relative size and quality of the public google earth data vs the tweeted photo was used to estimate the source resolution capability. It’s not that hard to estimate this.

    The image content (towers) was used to estimate the angle, elevation and what satellite was possible to take this photo. The link I provided go through the complete alg and data used.

    Again, this was done within a single day by an astronomer with the help of a few others. Perhaps someone will find an error in the data set or alg used... but the point is simply with the photo and resource from gov intel, you can obtain info from capability and what object was used to take the photo, that we were watching that particular location, and possibly other info that probably were meant to be kept secret.
     
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  18. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Our allies, and the Obama administration, disagree with you. Iran was prevented from beginning to do what would be necessary to create a nuclear weapon for at least a decade, and likely far longer. Mr trump tossed the agreement in the trash, primarily, in my opinion, because it was negotiated under President Obama's watch. You may have noticed that anything accomplished during the previous administration has been a target of trump's stupidity, no matter how worthy it may be. The agreement with Iran is strongly supported by our allies. Why do you think that is? Do you prefer having a war with Iran to preventing that country from building a nuclear weapon?

    I can believe some of you are babbling about WWII as if that has anything to do with what is happening now.
     
    #398 Deckard, Sep 1, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2019
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  19. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    A bit more about trump's latest lunacy.
    Part One:

    [​IMG]

    US. President Donald Trump appears to have taken the highly unusual step of releasing an official and relatively high resolution annotated U.S. intelligence image of the recent failed space launch at Iran's Imam Khomeini Space Center via Twitter and confirmed that it involved a Safir space launch vehicle. Trump also declared that the United States had no hand in the accident and offered Iran "best wishes" and "good luck." It's unclear if the President, who recently reiterated his willingness to meet with Iranian officials to try to de-escalate growing tensions, meant that to be an insult.

    Trump sent out the Tweet with the message and attached image on Aug. 30, 2019. A black box at the upper left-hand corner appears to be a redaction of a previous classification marking. The social media post also indicates that the U.S. Intelligence Community refers to this particular launch pad as "Semnan Launch Site One." This method of disclosure is unprecedented, but The War Zone, among others, has long reported that Trump routinely appears to sendout missives on social media after receiving briefings, including those involving sensitive intelligence and military matters. Reports first emergedabout the accident on Aug. 29, 2019, and Iran has since confirmed that it occurred.

    "The United States of America was not involved in the catastrophic accident during final launch preparations for the Safir SLV [space launch vehicle] Launch at Semnan Launch Site One in Iran," Trump wrote in his Tweet. "I wish Iran best wishes and good luck in determining what happened at Site One."


    The image shows extensive damage to the gantry, transporter-erector-launcher vehicle, and various other supporting vehicles, equipment, on and around the launch pad. The exact source of the imagery is unclear.

    Its resolution is significantly higher than is typically found on commercial satellite images. It could be from a U.S. intelligence satellite. The low angle of the shot also raises the possibility that an unmanned aircraft took the picture. The U.S. has used stealthy RQ-170 Sentinel drones in the past to spy on sites inside Iran.

    There is a visible flash reflected in the image and you can see hands, arms, the outline of a phone, all indicating that this is a picture of a physical photograph. It is very possible, if not probable, that Trump took the picture with his cell phone and posted it online. This could also account for what appears to be a slight bend in the image at the edges, though this could also indicate a panoramic image stitched together from multiple pictures. Those visible lines may also be from the printer.

    Regardless, it is definitely distinct from the images that a satellite belonging commercial imagery firm Planet Labs took of the site on Aug. 29, 2019, which subsequently became public via the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey that same day. Maxar, another commercial imagery company, also released additional imagery. Those pictures were the first indications that something had gone wrong with Iran's latest attempted Safir launch.

    "This look likes the space launch vehicle blew up on the launch pad," Dave Schmerler, a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute, told NPRafter sharing the images with them. "This failure happened maybe a couple of minutes before the image was taken."

    "It was due to some technical issues and it exploded," an unnamed Iranian official told Reuters. "Our young scientists are working to fix the problem."

    Reuters said he offered no additional details about the incident. It's unclear what the payload on top of the rocket might have been, but earlier in August, Iran had indicated that the Nahid-1 communications satellite was ready for launch. It seems all but certain that the accident destroyed whatever payload or payloads were present.

    In January 2019, Iran made another rare acknowledgment of a failed satellite launch at Imam Khomeini Space Center. It remains unclear what happened, but Iran did release video of a newer Simorgh space launch vehicle blasting off successfully from the center. The Payam-e Amirkabir satellite, which Iran had officially said was an earth observation type for scientific research, however, never reached orbit.

    Trump's statement that the United States was not involved in this latest accident comes amid reports and rumors that the U.S. government had been launching covert operations to sabotage Iran's ballistic missile development programs and other related work. Just recently, The New York Times reported that an unrelated American cyberattack in June 2019 had severely hamperedIran's ability to monitor maritime activities in the Strait of Hormuz and plot attacks on or attempts to seize foreign ships. This did not prevent Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from taking control of the British flagged tanker Stena Impero, along with two other ships, between July and August.

    Of course, even without Trump's Tweet, there is no other hard evidence that U.S. had any involvement in the Safir's apparent explosion. Iran has conducted eight launches using this rocket, at least three of which are known to have failed.
     
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  20. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Part Two:

    The President's offer of "best wishes" to Iran is curious given that the U.S. government's position, as well as that of some of its allies, especially Israel, is that the Iranians are using their nascent space program as a cover for long-range ballistic missile developments, including the possible development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). As such, the United States routinely criticizes space launches just as it does any other Iranian missile test.

    With this in mind, it is certainly possible that Trump meant his condolences as a backhanded insult. The President is certainly not above disparaging opponents, both foreign and domestic, on Twitter and in public, as well as outright threatening them, too.

    At the same time, this does also follow Trump's latest public offer to meet with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani on Aug. 26, 2019, at the G7 summit in France. The President has proposed such meetings in the past, as well.

    "I have a good feeling. I think he [Rouhani] is going to want to meet and get their situation straightened out. They are hurting badly," Trump told reporters. "They can’t do what they were saying they were going to do because if they do that, they will be met with really very violent force. So I think they are going to be good."

    Since May, the U.S. government had continued to warn about the potential for attack from Iran or its regional proxies against its interests or those of its allies. Iran did shoot down a U.S. Navy RQ-4A drone in June, which almost touched off retaliatory strikes. There have been a number of attacks on tankers in the Middle with links to Iran, as well as the aforementioned IRGC seizures of the Stena Impero and other ships.

    Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have notably stepped up attacksagainst Saudi Arabia, as well. There are also growing indications that Israel has increased its own campaign against Iran and its proxies through the Middle East, reportedly expanding strikes into Iraq and launching renewed operations in Lebanon.

    Still, there have been hopes that things may finally be trending in the opposite direction. A U.S.-backed maritime security mission in the tense Strait of Hormuz, so far, appears to have deterred further Iranian attempts to seize any ships.

    "I'm not sure I'm ready to call the crisis over yet, but so far so good," U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon on Aug. 28, 2019. "We hope the trend lines continue that way. And we hope that the parties, that the Iranians would agree to talk – meet and talk and help us resolve these issues."

    So far, Iran has refused to meet with the United States until it rolls back sanctions and has also called on the U.S. government to respect the terms of a controversial deal of its nuclear program, which the Trump Administrationwithdrew from in 2018. Whether Trump's Tweet over the Safir accident helps lead to any new movement on the diplomatic front remains to be seen.

    Contact the author: joe@thedrive.com
     
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