Not very far? It's exactly like I said. The group of planners Letwin, Rudd + Cooper from Labour etc will try to come up with plans to block it and when and if they fail, they will have no other way but to resort to no confidence. Most rebels oppose more to the person- Corbyn- than to the idea of deposing their own party. And Corbyn has already changed his plans. Before he was planning on calling a no confidence motion on the first opportunity but he has already decided to stall for more time so the Tory Rebels can have a go. The more time goes on, and Johnson meets soon with the European leaders with no result, and the clock is ticking all of them will be in even more pressure to form a national unity emergency government. There are also some loud Labour backbenchers who support more the first Lady of the house for PM than Corbyn as an option of wider acceptance. She is a MP for 37 years and like the male counterpart Clarke is much respected from all political spectrum and trustworthy and noone is scared that she will seize power for other means. In negotiations there will be consessions. Corbyn doesn't enjoy much support in his own party with even many backbench MPs jeering against him in a recent Labour meeting. There is wide dissatisfaction with his frontbench advisors because they are steering him towards Brexit instead of supporting Remain in a second referendum. They can only rely on him to call the motion of no confidence however there is still political merit in having another person become temporary PM and him avoiding backlash in the next GE. This way Corbyn can achieve going further in his strategy : talking with both ways of his mouth = trying to both retain the Remainers since the PM will be from the Labour party after he himself called the no confidence motion while also appealing to the moderate Leavers who want Brexit with remaining in the custom union with a deal.
The Labour party has lost the Leaver voters. These voters know that after Corbyn's recent announcements, there is no plausible path for Labour or Corbyn to support an actual real Brexit. Remainer voters may still be confused about what Labour's position is on this, but the Leaver voters are history. As far as the Tory Rebels, I guess we will just have to wait and see what they will do when the vote comes up. Any of them that support Corbyn's no confidence motion know they will be thrown out of the Conservative Party. This is a big reason why nearly all of these people (one exception - Guto Bebb) are insisting that they only support working with Corbyn to find a way to stop no deal, but not for a no confidence motion. Bebb has already announced his retirement at the next general election, so he apparently does not care about that. But if he does it, he will be persona non grata in the Conservative party and his name will live on in infamy. I hope you are right about them fooling around and wasting time while to clock continues to tick down. But they only have about a week and a half for this exercise, and then Parliament will be on recess again until about the second week in October, as the parties will all be conducting their annual party conferences. So when they get back, there will be about three weeks left. In other words, they need to get done whatever they are going to get done in early September.
And what will they vote? The Leavers who want to a Norway style Brexit? And all the things that were promised during the referendum campaign by Johnson himself? Because the Tories aren't interested in fullfilling these promises. Now that the Tories have become the new Brexit party, there is no other option for the moderate Leavers but Labour. So what if the rebels are thrown out of the Conservative Party? There are 7 other parties in the parliament they can join. As for the recess that's the first plan of Grieve. He has already said that he is going to table a motion that the recess will be completely canceled. Also the parliament is now obliged to convene for 4 days each, two times during the recess anyway due to the Stormont amendment so even if Grieve's motion doesn't pass they will have to sit. We can all thank the DUP and the ironic backfiring of their malicious shenanigans. Not only they will have to allow gay marriage and abortions but they could torpido no deal Brexit with their own hands.
Germany is now convinced that the UK will be leaving the EU without on October 31, according to leaked documents published by German newspaper The Handelsblatt. Germany expects No Deal and will not renegotiate, says leaked briefing Germany expects a No Deal Brexit and is not prepared to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, according to leaked details of an internal briefing paper for Angela Merkel’s government. The leaked paper is the first evidence that Germany may be preparing to let Britain walk away with No Deal rather than back down to Boris Johnson’s demand to drop the Irish backstop. The paper was prepared by civil servants for the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, ahead of face-to-face talks with the chancellor of the exchequer, Sajid Javid, in Berlin on Friday. It seems like this may have been an intentional "Leak," just to start getting everyone ready. Whether that is getting them ready for the UK leaving without a deal, or to grease the skids a last minute EU climb-down, remains to be seen. The best thing for all parties would be for the UK to leave with a deal that is agreeable to everyone - especially the people of the UK. The current deal that the EU is stuck on does not achieve that and has been voted down in the UK Parliament 3 times. If the EU is willing a deal can be reached. But it will not include the backstop. I still think there is a very significant possibility that a last minute deal of this type is reached. Not highly probable, but highly possible.
The EU is already ready for no deal. This was leaked because this week in the G7 meeting Johnson is about to get his ass handed to him when he demands again concessions. Johnson : Look I'm really ready to commit suicide. I really mean it. I'm jumping off the cliff. EU : Okayyyy Johnson : I'm now putting my foot over the edge. There's not much time to stop me. Do what I say and I will come off the edge. EU : Nah we're good. Go ahead. Johnson : You must not believe I'm serious. I mean it! EU: .... No we really really believe you. Go ahead and jump ffs! https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rtages-and-port-delays-operation-yellowhammer Food and medicine shortages and port delays. https://www.theguardian.com/busines...in-for-the-worse-animal-welfare-tech-monopoly How a future US- UK trade deal with mean the end of animal wellfare and the domestic farming economy.
The end of the UK domestic farming economy, you say. Alrighty then. As if the hyperbole had not already completely jumped the rails. Johnson is of course acting as the adult in the room. The EU is continuing their blubbering tantrum because the UK will not be bullied or dominated by them any more. So sad. But a responsible deal is in the best interests of everyone. Theresa May's deal was great for the EU and bad for the UK, which is why the UK voted it down, across party lines, three times. If there is going to be a deal, it is going to have to be one that is acceptable to the people of the UK. Of course the EU is used to being able to ram this sort of thing down their member countries throats. They are so arrogant that the thought of engaging in a considerate negotiation with the UK is unthinkable to them. And so they apparently will not do it. Boris Johnson knows the EU is not likely to work with him at this stage. That is OK. Brexit either with or without a deal is far better for the people of the UK than continuing to be yoked to this failing union. Nevertheless, he is right to try to get a good deal for his people, even if the EU leaders are too selfish and immature to do the same for theirs. At least Boris Johnson will have tried and nobody will be able to say that he didn't.
WH Advisor John Bolton told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that President Trump wants to see a successful British exit from the European Union on Oct. 31 and that Washington will be ready to work fast on a U.S.-UK free trade agreement. Be careful what you wish for! assuming that Brexit happens, and UK stops trading w the EU, who will be the biggest economic beneficiary? China, by far, UK currently imports ~ $30B from the EU; according to Zakarias' reporting, china will pick up ~ $13B of the slack, and the US ~$5B. https://www.cnn.com/shows/fareed-zakaria-gps insofar as the tariff war w the US, this'd enable China to waiting it out much longer
A number of Labour and Independent MP's - perhaps as many as 15 - could refuse to back any effort that serves to delay Brexit again. Many of these MP's represent Leave constituencies and have promised these constituencies repeatedly and over a period of years that they will support Leaving the EU. And in fact, these MP's appear to want to leave the EU, as do their consituents. Opposition MPs could back BoJo to keep power and deliver Brexit by October 31 Analysis of MPs’ voting records on Brexit by The Sun reveals as many as 15 Labour and independent MPs may refuse to back any Commons vote that ends up delaying Brexit again. That would leave opposition party leaders needing a greater number of Tory MPs prepared to collapse the Conservative government for their bid to succeed. Ms Hoey tweeted: “Like all other Labour MPs I fought on a manifesto in 2017 to respect the referendum vote. Any action taken now to stop us Leaving on October 31st by Labour is a knife in the back of the majority of Labour constituencies who voted to Leave”. Another pro-Brexit Labour MP, John Mann, said Mr Corbyn couldn’t rely on his vote either yet. Mr Mann told The Sun: “Let’s see what is proposed first. I will wait and see. I’m happy to have an election after October 31, but I want Brexit to happen before then.” In another blow for Mr Corbyn’s bid to oust Boris and delay Brexit for more talks for a deal, Change UK’s five MPs also said they would only back a caretaker PM if they promised to deliver a second referendum not a general election. Now quite a few of these MP's would also support bringing down any Tory government, because that is what opposition parties live for. But first things first. As pro-Brexit Labour MP John Mann says above, he would be happy with an election shortly after October 31, once Brexit has been achieved. For each additional Labour or Independent MP who refuses to back a no-confidence motion prior to October 31, an additional Tory will have to be flipped. And right now, there is only one Tory MP who clearly appears to be committed to supporting a no-confidence motion against Boris Johnson.
Italian PM Giuseppe Conte has resigned. This effectively brings down the current Italian government. The President now has to choose between asking the 5 Stars (left leaning populists) to try to form another minority government, or to call elections, which is pretty close to an annual event in Italy going back to WWII. This is all rather complicated, which is expected, since the Italians have not gotten their political boat rowing in the same direction for even a relatively short time for over 50 years now. But the net-net-net that is driving their current problems is that Italy has huge fiscal problems and huge problems with excessive immigration, and the EU will not allow the country to take measures to rectify either issue. Why Italy is heading for crisis once more Over the last 14 months Salvini has skilfully used his position as interior minister to monopolise the media agenda, far exceeding his brief with a series of well-orchestrated clashes with pro-refugee NGOs, the EU and trade unions. Having won over a third of the vote in May’s European Parliament elections, on 8 August Salvini announced he would be withdrawing his party’s support for Conte and seeking fresh elections. Salvini’s boisterous recent rallies in beach resorts across southern-central Italy were a good sign that election plans had been put in motion. In regional contests since the general election in March 2018, the Lega has extended its support beyond its traditional northern heartlands, and despite a scandal in July over alleged funding from Moscow, the party now polls close to 40 per cent nationally. On Tuesday, Conte resigned, but recent manoeuvrings in the Italian parliament might thwart Salvini’s push for a vote this year. While Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia backed Salvini’s call for a vote of confidence in Conte, the Democratic Party (PD) sided with M5s to delay the date of the vote, buying time to negotiate a possible alternative government. Together, these parties are a potential parliamentary bulwark to the Lega, which holds only one in six seats in the legislature. A pact between M5s and the PD carries all manner of dangers for Italy. Should a deal between them prove impossible, the country faces early elections and a likely huge mandate for Salvini. This would finalise the Lega’s capture of the conservative middle classes, while reducing Berlusconi’s old party, Forza Italia, to a mere rump entity after its quarter-century domination of the right. Victory would also propel the Lega’s march into the once hostile southern regions. An outright Lega victory does not promise a huge policy shift – Salvini’s party has abandoned talk of leaving the eurozone, and has continued with its anti-migrant measures. But a Lega-only government would almost certainly reverse the welfare policies advanced by M5s, as well as introduce plans for a 15 per cent flat rate tax: lowering the tax burden for the wealthy while imposing as much as €60bn in spending cuts. It is difficult to see how the Italians (or the Greeks either while we are on it) can effectively address their problems without at least leaving the Eurozone (Stop using the Euro as their currency) and either completely defy the EU's immigration mandates, or if that is not possible, leave the EU.
A new YouGov poll reveals that the UK public opposes the idea of a "National unity government" by a margin of 44-37, with 19% not sure. New poll suggests public opposes government of national unity Remainers’ hopes of blocking no-deal were dealt a blow today, as a new poll suggested that the public opposes toppling Boris Johnson and establishing a government of national unity. A survey by YouGov has found that 44 percent of people do not support replacing the Government with a cross-party administration tasked with delaying Brexit in order to hold a snap election. The poll found that 76 percent of Leave voters were opposed to the idea, rising to 77 percent among voters who backed the Conservative Party at the last election. In contrast, just 37 percent of the public approved of the proposal, whilst 19% said they were undecided. And Jeremy Corbyn is insisting on having the first go at replacing Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. So that is another impediment to this idea.
So much for the EU's insistence that they will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement. Led by Angela Merkel, the EU has just caved on that promise. She just indicated that she was open to alternatives over the next 30 days. Merkel tells Johnson solution to backstop could be found in 'next 30 days' Angela Merkel has told Boris Johnson a solution to the Northern Irish backstop could be found in the "next 30 days" after the PM demanded it be removed from the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Mr Johnson said the "onus is on us" to produce solutions for the Northern Irish border and he welcomed a "blistering timetable of 30 days" to come up with the answers. On his first foreign trip as Prime Minister, Mr Johnson said there was "ample scope" to achieve a deal with the EU but only if it dropped the backstop - the contingency plan aimed at preventing a hard border between the UK and Ireland. Mrs Merkel said the backstop has always been a "fallback position" and would only come into effect if no other solution could be agreed that would protect the "integrity of the single market". At a press conference ahead of a working dinner, she added: "If one is able to solve this conundrum, if one finds this solution, we said we would probably find it in the next two years to come but we can also maybe find it in the next 30 days to come." Of course this does not mean that a deal has been agreed to. Not by a long-shot. But this does mean that the negotiations are back open again. And the backstop is on the cutting table.
How is Jeremy Corbyn going to be able to table a no-confidence motion while the Withdrawal Deal is being renegotiated? The whole reason for the no-confidence motion was supposedly to stop "no deal". But now a new deal is being worked on.
French PM Emmanuel Macron has indicated he is willing to support the reopening of the Withdrawal Deal negotiations, while continuing with the tough talk, just like he did last April, when he insisted he would not approve an extension, right before he did just that. Brexit: Macron says Withdrawal Agreement can be amended French President Emmanuel Macron has said for the first time that the Withdrawal Agreement can be amended to allow the UK to leave the European Union with a deal. Macron said “...we will not find a new withdrawal agreement that deviates far from the original,” clearly showing that there is, indeed, room for renegotiation. Johnson told Macron that he wanted a Brexit deal and believed it was still possible to reach one in time for the October deadline. He said he had been “powerfully encouraged” by what he had heard from German Chancellor Angela Merkel during talks in Berlin on Wednesday. "Let’s get Brexit done, let’s get it done sensibly and pragmatically and in the interests of both sides and let’s not wait until October 31,” Johnson said. “Let’s get on now in deepening and intensifying the friendship and partnership between us.” So the cracks in the EU intransigence continue to widen....
