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[538]Westbrook broke BPM and is "pretty badly overrated"

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by justtxyank, Jul 18, 2019.

  1. RocketsFan247

    RocketsFan247 Member

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    Would love to run this on Lebron. Would like to see if he actually earned that 97 rating...
     
  2. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Right, it's a discussion topic. They admit in the tweets I posted they don't have it nailed down yet to their OWN liking.

    I do think it's worth a topic though when one of the leading mainstream analytical "public" media outlets comes out with modeling information about a player on our team.

    I don't get why people have to be so sensitive anytime anything doesn't paint a rosy picture.
     
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  3. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

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    Hey that’s great.....would have been nice to have that done in the 2016-17 season.
     
    #83 Rox>Mavs, Jul 18, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2019
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  4. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Yeah should have listened to me back then lol
     
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  5. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Are you sure your math is correct? The difference between 29% and 34% (5%) times five attempts times three points is .75 points per game.

    Is that significant? It certainly can be. Not only does almost one point per game dramatically affect the margin of victory (ours last season was 4.8 points), but it affects how a player is guarded. Bruce Bowen averaged 2.6 3pt attempts per game as a Spur and hit 40.5% of them. The difference between him shooting 40.5% and 29% is 0.90 points per game. If he only shot 29% as a Spur he would no longer space the floor for the rest of the team and would essentially be Corey Brewer.

    When you hit around that 33% mark or so, teams no longer leave you wide open. Westbrook couldn't do that last year and it showed in the playoffs in how Portland defended him. How much easier would it have been to drive if his man played him closely on the three point line?
     
  6. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Good for us we need a guy that will get rebounds.
     
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  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Personally not a big fan of 538 for sports.

    Having said that, anyone that has played at high level high school basketball or above, or who really is interested in the technical part of the game could reach a few conclusions.

    Russell Westbrook is a good rebounder but he is not an 11 rebound a game rebounder. He gets all the easy and uncontested rebounds in OKC. Some of that by design and some of because he insisted on it.

    He is a poor shooter, some of which is related to his poor mechanics. To be more precise, he doesn’t repeat his mechanics as well as someone at the NBA level should.

    He does not play well off ball. He tends to stand when he doesn’t have the ball. Contrary to what Perkins said, he CAN move without the ball because he did the first few years in OKC. He also can set a mean screen when he is motivated. He had such a huge load in OKC that he would rest when when he didn’t have the ball. It is a bit like Harden. It isn’t laziness as much as exhaustion.

    Defensively he has been all over the map. Prior to deciding he was Mr. Triple Double, he has some seasons where he could be a pretty good defensive player both on and off ball. After Durant left, he stopped defending on ball. He gives an incredible cushion. Again some of this is his lateral movement speed, but there is a correlation between usage and his on ball defense.

    Last year he had a horrendous shooting season. He had a knee issue and I don’t doubt that was part of it. His conditioning also did not seem as good to my eye.

    I personally will take Chris Paul. Harden and Paul were hugely successful and Paul didn’t make mistakes often. If Westbrook really wants it to work, it will. However the statements of MDA leads me to believe he questions if Harden and Westbrook will make the necessary sacrifices.
     
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  8. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Dominant personality is a stat they should incorporate. See: Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson
     
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  9. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    I've never been so unsure going into a season. will be win 60 games and contend for a championship? will we win 48 and have a total meltdown and blow it up next year? its anyone's game.
     
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  10. harold bingo

    harold bingo Udoka Only Fan
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    Same except my floor for this team is lower than 48 games.
     
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  11. c1utchfan925

    c1utchfan925 Contributing Member

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    I think they're trying to say that someone on the team is going to get defensive rebounds, but you tell that to anyone trying to compare someone like Brook Lopez. Who is a terrible defensive rebounder who sit at around 7 feet

    It's definitely true that Westbrook doesn't play good defense because he wants to grab the rebound and push as fast as humanly possible In order to get the transition bucket.

    With him being here, this experimental duo will only work if Harden AND Westbrook both step up defensively. Neither one should be standing around the paint to try to grab the rebound. That shouldn't take away the fact that he does contribute with assists and scores pretty heavily in the paint.

    If he stops taking excessive 2pt shots (he's not insanely efficient with) he might be able to improve his game and boost our chances of success.

    Typically someone who plays at hard as Westbrook can make the energy plays night in and night out. We'll see how this translates over when he gets introduced to our system .
     
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  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    People keep asking about what Westbrook’s true value is.

    Well, after the Paul George trade, I don’t remember there being a line of teams lining up to trade for Westbrook. The Rockets and Heat were it as far as I know. The Heat supposedly were not willing to trade their young assets for Westbrook and that already required OKC to take on bad contracts from Miami.
     
  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    They could win 40-45 games next year. There are serious fit issues and possibly chemistry questions.
     
  14. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    This should work out

    Either MDA is gonna have to pull his head out of his ass or wb and James will figure it out themselves .... I'm pretty sure harden and Paul did .

    WB has always been a creator

    James hasn't primarily been a creator

    All that teaming them up means is that they are gonna have more energy to do things off ball and on the defensive end .

    There is absolutley an efficient allocation of handling for each player and ways for each to get the ball in spots where they are comfortable and can do damage .

    I just hope MDA and Morey are willing to be flexible. We don't need Russ ONLY handling or ONLY spotting up

    We need true unpredictablility .
     
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  15. dmoneybangbang

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    And look at what CP3's value is.... stalled out.
     
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  16. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    I tried to click like on this post so fast that I didnt realize I had already clicked like 5 seconds before lol
     
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  17. dmoneybangbang

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    Yea if there's a serious injury....

    Some of y'all are seriously overestimating this teams floor if we are relatively healthy. I'm not sure if yall stared too much at the abyss of the 2017 MVP season or what.

    Are Russ and Harden not going to talk and game plan prior to the tip off of the first game of the season? If anything, it would similar to Harden and CP3 where it takes a full two seasons.
     
  18. desi tmac91

    desi tmac91 Member

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    Yeahhh, this is going to be a disaster.
     
  19. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Injuries.... the age of PJ Tucker.... real spacing/scheme issues with Westbrook’s inability to shoot in this offense.... Clint or Eric not being fully invested after a while summer of hearing they will be traded.

    Spacing is so important with the Rockets. I’m sure MDA will try to stagger JH and RW, but whenever RW is on the floor there will be spacing issues. I suspect we see Gordon with Westbrook a lot to try to open the floor some. I like Rivers and Harden together anyway.

    Still the Rockets are walking a tight rope trying to minimize And maximize Westbrook.
     
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  20. dmoneybangbang

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    So essentially a bunch of worst case scenarios happen over the course of the season?

    It's maddening simple, this works if Harden and Russ BOTH adapt their games.

    Did we watch two separate 2018 seasons where CP3 had trouble beating his man and wasn't good at extending/keeping leads with the bench unit? He had some great games in 2018, but mostly it wasn't enough. All that happened and we were still great.
     
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